Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Moana’ Rides Wave To $55.5M/$81.1M 3-Day/5-Day, ‘Fantastic Beasts’ Holds w/ $45.1M/$65.7M; ‘Allied’ Starts w/ $13.0M/$18.0M; ‘Bad Santa 2’ w/ $6.1M/$9.0M

Disney’s Moana owned the Thanksgiving weekend box office with an estimated $55.52 million three-day start, or $81.10 million if counting from its Wednesday opening. That’s the sixth-highest three-day Thanksgiving weekend of all time, and the 13th-highest when adjusted for inflation — and many of those films ranking ahead of it through the years were fellow Disney releases, as the studio has often released films on Thanksgiving weekend. Moana earned an “A” average CinemaScore from an audience that was 55 percent female, 72 percent families, and 45 percent under age 16.

(Read more about Moana with Boxoffice Pro’s feature article including an interview with the two directors here.)

In second place was the Warner Bros. fantasy Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, which declined an estimated 39.4 percent to take in $45.10 million three-day, or $65.7 million for the five-day holiday weekend.

The three non-Moana new wide releases all started out a bit more lackluster than their studios might have liked, especially given that Thanksgiving is usually one of the biggest weekends of the year. Paramount’s war drama Allied came in fourth place with an estimated $13.0 million three-day start, or $18.0 million for the five-day holiday weekend. Broad Green Pictures’ Bad Santa 2 came in a disappointing eighth place with an estimated $6.10 million three-day, or $9.03 million for the five-day holiday weekend. And Fox’s Rules Don’t Apply wasn’t expected to be a huge blockbuster, but was expected to have at least debuted in the top 10. It didn’t, with an 12th place start through an estimated $1.57 million three-day start, or $2.17 million for the five-day holiday weekend.

In limited release, Loving and Moonlight both continued their so-far excellent runs with a $1.69 million three-day weekend for the former and a $1.30 million three-day weekend for the latter. Weinstein Company’s awards contender Lion started out with $128 thousand in only four theaters, while EuropaCorp’s political drama Miss Sloane began with $63 thousand in only three theaters. (Read our interview with Lion director Garth Davis here.)

The top 10 films this weekend earned an estimated cumulative $170.70 million. That’s 1.7 percent above the 167.80 million earned by the top 10 on this weekend last year, when The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 led for the second straight frame with $52.00 million. It’s also 16.4 percent above the $146,558,755 earned by the top 10 last weekend.

Overseas Update:

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them continued its overseas dominance with an amazing $132.0 million overseas weekend, led by $41.1 million in China. The film has now earned $317.5 million overseas total, and $473.7 million globally.

Moana made a decent $16.3 million overseas weekend in 12 markets, led by $12.3 million in China.

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, November 25 – Sunday, November 27, 2016:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Moana $55,523,000 3,875 $14,329 $81,108,000 1 Disney
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $45,100,000 -39% 4,144 0 $10,883 $156,228,123 2 Warner Bros.
3 Doctor Strange $13,369,000 -25% 3,008 -686 $4,444 $205,093,475 4 Disney
4 Allied $13,000,000 3,160 $4,114 $18,022,000 1 Paramount
5 Arrival $11,250,000 -7% 2,442 107 $4,607 $62,387,300 3 Paramount
6 Trolls $10,340,000 -41% 3,322 -623 $3,113 $135,136,662 4 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
7 Almost Christmas $7,610,000 5% 1,769 -610 $4,302 $36,688,865 3 Universal
8 Bad Santa 2 $6,106,658 2,920 $2,091 $9,031,191 1 Broad Green Pictures
9 Hacksaw Ridge $5,450,000 -18% 2,332 -551 $2,337 $52,248,382 4 Lionsgate
10 The Edge of Seventeen $2,960,000 -38% 1,945 0 $1,522 $10,273,770 2 STX Entertainment
11 Rules Don’t Apply $1,575,000 2,382 $661 $2,175,000 1 20th Century Fox
12 Bleed for This $949,898 -60% 1,549 0 $613 $4,253,602 2 Open Road
13 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk $210,000 -77% 1,176 0 $179 $1,593,724 3 Sony / TriStar

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Loving $1,691,000 94% 421 283 $4,017 $4,069,771 4 Focus
2 Moonlight (2016) $1,300,000 -13% 618 -32 $2,104 $8,624,896 6 A24
3 Dear Zindagi $1,082,894 153 $7,078 $1,502,078 1 Reliance Entertainment
4 The Accountant $1,057,000 -51% 556 -867 $1,901 $83,240,144 7 Warner Bros.
5 Nocturnal Animals $816,000 66% 126 89 $6,476 $1,669,834 2 Focus
6 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back $370,000 -63% 345 -765 $1,072 $57,425,613 6 Paramount
7 Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween $353,000 -69% 339 -832 $1,041 $72,858,654 6 Lionsgate
8 Shut In $240,000 -85% 277 -1729 $866 $6,712,128 3 EuropaCorp Films
9 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children $220,000 -41% 215 -249 $1,023 $86,145,793 9 Fox
10 Deepwater Horizon $179,000 28% 187 -14 $957 $61,111,815 9 Lionsgate / Summit
11 Inferno $165,000 -75% 165 -605 $1,000 $33,797,229 5 Sony / Columbia
12 Pete’s Dragon (2016) $99,000 -20% 127 -35 $780 $76,139,941 16 Disney
13 Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life $87,500 -43% 132 -75 $663 $19,958,291 8 CBS Films / Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Manchester By the Sea $1,250,294 387% 48 44 $26,048 $1,651,933 2 Roadside / Amazon
2 The Eagle Huntress $278,292 53% 64 25 $4,348 $923,643 4 Sony Pictures Classics
3 Lion $128,368 4 $32,092 $128,368 1 Weinstein Company
4 Elle (2016) $123,256 -3% 36 12 $3,424 $404,756 3 Sony Pictures Classics
5 A Man Called Ove $110,296 -55% 81 -84 $1,362 $3,017,322 9 Music Box Films
6 Miss Sloane $63,000 3 $21,000 $63,000 1 EuropaCorp
7 Finding Dory $42,000 -44% 78 -43 $538 $486,308,073 24 Disney
8 Seasons $26,723 13 $2,056 $26,723 1 Music Box Films
9 Queen of Katwe $26,000 -46% 30 -51 $867 $8,742,834 10 Disney
10 The Love Witch $21,000 -44% 15 13 $1,400 $105,434 3 Oscilloscope Pictures
11 Best Worst Thing That Ever Could Have Happened $17,670 -25% 3 1 $5,890 $52,966 2 Abramorama
12 Harry & Snowman $12,000 -65% 12 -12 $1,000 $501,446 9 FilmRise
13 Certain Women $10,450 19 $550 $1,032,942 7
14 Daughters of the Dust (2016 re-release) $9,068 3 $3,023 $21,692 2 Cohen Media Group
15 Christine (2016) $8,667 23 $377 $270,750 7 The Orchard
16 The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years $7,140 -68% 7 -5 $1,020 $2,882,251 11 Abramorama
17 Evolution $6,927 3 $2,309 $6,927 1 IFC Midnight
18 Don’t Think Twice $5,150 -26% 3 -2 $1,717 $4,417,983 19 The Film Arcade
19 Always Shine $4,500 1 $4,500 $4,500 1 Oscilloscope
20 American Pastoral $3,100 -59% 14 -6 $221 $540,770 6 Lionsgate
21 Greater $776 1 $776 $1,987,603 14 Hammond Entertainment
Jesse Rifkin

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    Sailbum November 28, 2016

    I was surprised by the big miss on your estimate for Moana, your estimates are usually pretty close to the actuals. The $20 million miss on Moana for the five day weekend run really surprised me ($101 million est. vs $81 million actual).

    Reply

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