Weekend Estimates: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ Rocks Audiences with $45M+ Debut; ‘Nutcracker’ Meets Mixed Expectations at $17.5M+; ‘Nobody’s Fool’ Eyes $13M+

Saturday Update: Queen is back on top of the charts as Bohemian Rhapsody scored a strong $18.4 million opening day on Friday, including Thursday night’s $3.9 million start. That sets the biopic on course for a huge debut weekend that could reach $46 million, per studio estimates.

Rhapsody‘s opening day take came in 17 percent higher than A Star Is Born ($15.7 million) after besting its Thursday night performance by nearly 22 percent, while topping Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again‘s $14.3 million first day take by 29 percent. Early word of mouth appears to be much stronger among fans and audiences with a 94 percent Flixster score as of this morning, countering the modest 59 percent Rotten Tomatoes rating from critics. That suggests a healthy life ahead for the film, especially given early award season buzz for Rami Malek’s performance as Freddie Mercury.

Disney’s The Nutcracker and the Four Realms opened to an estimated $5.619 million on Friday as it looks toward a second place debut that could reach $18 million or a bit more this weekend. Unfortunately, opening day met expectations for an under-performance as it registered 45 percent behind A Wrinkle In Time ($10.2 million). Matinee playability and holiday-driven holding power could still be in play as the days and weeks progress, but the competition for kids and families will be strong throughout the season.

Nobody’s Fool took in an estimated $4.8 million for Paramount on opening day, about 19 percent less than Almost Christmas when it debuted with $5.9 million two years ago this month. The comedy looks to be on pace for a weekend around $13.5 million.

Halloween declined more sharply than expected from its mid-week holiday boost as the hit horror revival added $3.3 million on Friday. That represented a 67 percent decline from last Friday, comparing less favorably to Paranormal Activity 2‘s 54 percent Friday-to-Friday drop on the exact same weekend six years ago when the calendars aligned in the same way. With $142.7 million in the domestic bank so far, Halloween is now targeting a third frame around $10.8 million.

Rounding out the top five, A Star Is Born looked relatively unaffected by Bohemian‘s market entry as the Cooper/Gaga smash declined just 24 percent from last Friday to $3.15 million yesterday. Now standing at $157.7 million domestically, this weekend should ring up another $10 million or more.

Early weekend estimates are below with updated figures from the studios to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, NOV. 2 – SUN, NOV. 4

 
# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Bohemian Rhapsody $46,000,000 4,000 $11,500 $46,000,000 1 20th Century Fox
2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $18,500,000 3,766 $4,912 $18,500,000 1 Walt Disney Pictures
3 Nobody’s Fool $13,500,000 2,468 $5,470 $13,500,000 1 Paramount
4 Halloween (2018) $10,800,000 -66% 3,775 -215 $2,861 $150,193,705 3 Universal Pictures
5 A Star is Born $10,200,000 -27% 3,431 -473 $2,973 $164,734,566 5 Warner Bros.
6 Venom $7,000,000 -34% 3,067 -500 $2,282 $197,813,348 5 Sony / Columbia
7 Hunter Killer $3,500,000 -47% 2,720 -8 $1,287 $12,940,116 2 Lionsgate / Summit
8 Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween $3,400,000 -53% 2,828 -895 $1,202 $43,532,316 4 Sony
9 The Hate U Give $3,300,000 -35% 1,507 -868 $2,190 $23,360,924 5 20th Century Fox
10 Smallfoot $2,900,000 -39% 2,002 -660 $1,449 $76,579,301 6 Warner Bros.
11 First Man $2,200,000 -55% 1,712 -1247 $1,285 $41,989,870 4 Universal
12 Night School $1,800,000 -44% 1,271 -720 $1,416 $74,195,215 6 Universal
13 Mid90s $1,200,000 -60% 1,091 -115 $1,100 $5,660,966 3 A24

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Beautiful Boy $1,400,000 114% 540 350 $2,593 $3,203,242 4 Amazon
2 Suspiria $1,300,000 606% 311 309 $4,180 $1,550,857 2 Amazon Studios
3 The Old Man & The Gun $1,000,000 -43% 765 -277 $1,307 $9,170,687 6 Fox Searchlight
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? $1,000,000 181% 180 155 $5,556 $1,720,140 3 Fox Searchlight
5 Johnny English Strikes Again $950,000 -42% 552 8 $1,721 $3,166,765 2 Universal Pictures
6 Indivisible $860,000 -43% 742 -88 $1,159 $2,989,873 2 Pure Flix
7 Incredibles 2 $160,000 15% 150 -10 $1,067 $608,100,568 21 Disney
8 Disney’s Christopher Robin $137,000 47% 165 17 $830 $99,008,049 14 Disney
9 A Simple Favor $64,000 -57% 102 -120 $627 $53,360,490 8 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Hell Fest $25,000 -86% 92 -815 $272 $11,099,156 6 Lionsgate / CBS Films

 

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Bohemian Rhapsody $46,000,000 4,000 $11,500 $46,000,000 1 20th Century Fox
2 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $18,500,000 3,766 $4,912 $18,500,000 1 Walt Disney Pictures
3 Nobody’s Fool $13,500,000 2,468 $5,470 $13,500,000 1 Paramount
4 Halloween (2018) $10,800,000 -66% 3,775 -215 $2,861 $150,193,705 3 Universal Pictures
5 A Star is Born $10,200,000 -27% 3,431 -473 $2,973 $164,734,566 5 Warner Bros.
6 Venom $7,000,000 -34% 3,067 -500 $2,282 $197,813,348 5 Sony / Columbia
7 Hunter Killer $3,500,000 -47% 2,720 -8 $1,287 $12,940,116 2 Lionsgate / Summit
8 Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween $3,400,000 -53% 2,828 -895 $1,202 $43,532,316 4 Sony
9 The Hate U Give $3,300,000 -35% 1,507 -868 $2,190 $23,360,924 5 20th Century Fox
10 Smallfoot $2,900,000 -39% 2,002 -660 $1,449 $76,579,301 6 Warner Bros.
11 First Man $2,200,000 -55% 1,712 -1247 $1,285 $41,989,870 4 Universal
12 Night School $1,800,000 -44% 1,271 -720 $1,416 $74,195,215 6 Universal
13 Mid90s $1,200,000 -60% 1,091 -115 $1,100 $5,660,966 3 A24

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Beautiful Boy $1,400,000 114% 540 350 $2,593 $3,203,242 4 Amazon
2 Suspiria $1,300,000 606% 311 309 $4,180 $1,550,857 2 Amazon Studios
3 The Old Man & The Gun $1,000,000 -43% 765 -277 $1,307 $9,170,687 6 Fox Searchlight
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? $1,000,000 181% 180 155 $5,556 $1,720,140 3 Fox Searchlight
5 Johnny English Strikes Again $950,000 -42% 552 8 $1,721 $3,166,765 2 Universal Pictures
6 Indivisible $860,000 -43% 742 -88 $1,159 $2,989,873 2 Pure Flix
7 Incredibles 2 $160,000 15% 150 -10 $1,067 $608,100,568 21 Disney
8 Disney’s Christopher Robin $137,000 47% 165 17 $830 $99,008,049 14 Disney
9 A Simple Favor $64,000 -57% 102 -120 $627 $53,360,490 8 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 A Private War $60,000 4 $15,000 $60,000 1 Aviron Pictures
2 Hell Fest $25,000 -86% 92 -815 $272 $11,099,156 6 Lionsgate / CBS Films

===

Friday Report: Fox’s Bohemian Rhapsody tuned up a strong $3.9 million start last night from shows beginning at 7pm at 3,260 locations. That stands 22 percent higher than A Star Is Born‘s $3.2 million Thursday night debut, which excludes that film’s $1.35 million Tuesday and Wednesday screenings earlier in the week. The Freddie Mercury/Queen biopic also registered nearly 15 above Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again‘s $3.4 million start back in summer.

Disney reports that The Nutcracker and the Four Realms brought in $625K from shows starting at 6pm last night. Unfortunately, that’s 52 percent off the pace of A Wrinkle In Time ($1.3 million) earlier this year. Comparisons to other live action Disney films like Christopher Robin ($1.5 million), The BFG ($780K), and Alice Through the Looking Glass ($1.5 million) aren’t particularly relevant at this point in time given the summer release of those three films. Conversely, Nutcracker‘s target younger audience won’t show up until weekend business at this point in the school year.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Nobody’s Fool earned $600K last night. The Tyler Perry produced comedy starring Tiffany Haddish opened below the $1.0 million start of Perry’s own Acrimony earlier this year, but was similar to the $500K debut of Almost Christmas in November 2016.

Follow Boxoffice throughout the weekend for continued updates and estimates.

Shawn Robbins

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    Erik November 03, 2018

    Didn’t Paranormal Activity 2 come out 8 years ago in 2010? The PA movie that opened 6 years ago was the fourth entry.

    Reply

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