Weekend Projections: ‘Moana’ Sets Sail with $55M 3-Day/$81M 5-Day Launch; ‘Fantastic Beasts’ Adds $45M 3-Day; ‘Allied’ ($12.5M/$17.5M); ‘Bad Santa 2’ ($5.7M/$8.6M); ‘Loving’ Debuts w/ $1.7M 3-Day
Saturday Update: Based on official Friday estimates from the studios, our 3-day and 5-day projections for key titles can be found below. Due to technical interruptions, we will not have a complete 3-day estimate chart until the studios report on Sunday.
- Moana ($55 million 3-day / $80.6 million 5-day)
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($45 million 3-day)
- Doctor Strange ($13.5 million 3-day)
- Allied ($12.5 million 3-day / $17.5 million 5-day)
- Arrival ($11.5 million 3-day)
- Trolls ($10.3 million 3-day)
- Almost Christmas ($5.8 million 3-day)
- Bad Santa 2 ($5.7 million 3-day / $8.6 million 5-day)
- Hacksaw Ridge ($5.5 million 3-day)
- The Edge of Seventeen ($2.9 million 3-day)
- Loving ($1.7 million 3-day)
- Rules Don’t Apply ($1.545 million 3-day / $2.145 million 5-day)
- The Accountant ($1.0 million 3-day)
- Bleed for This ($925,000 3-day)
- Nocturnal Animals ($860,000 3-day)
- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk ($200,000 3-day)
- Lion ($115,000 3-day)
Wednesday Update: The original version of the story erroneously stated Horrible Bosses 2‘s Thursday night gross as $370,000 in comparison to Bad Santa 2. That was in fact the gross of the original 2011 film, while Bosses 2 earned $1.0 million.
Wednesday Report: Disney’s Moana made a big splash last night with an estimated haul of $2.6 million, a new record for a Thanksgiving week opener (doubling the previous holder, The Good Dinosaur‘s $1.3 million last year). It also soars past Zootopia‘s $1.7 million Thursday night launch earlier this year, and blows away the $800,000 of Frozen on the same Tuesday three years ago (although opening night shows have since become far more prolific). With very strong reviews, the Disney brand name, and plenty of goodwill from the studio’s recent hits, this is shaping up to be a huge weekend for their latest original animation.
Meanwhile, Allied scored $600,000 in its launch last night. The Brad Pitt-Marion Cotillard dramatic thriller is aiming to counter-programming among adult audiences over the holiday weekend. Comparisons are a stretch at this time of year, but for reference last year’s Creed — with built-in sequel audience — pulled $1.4 million.
Bad Santa 2 earned $350,000 last night, coming in well behind the $1 million take of Horrible Bosses 2 on the comparable pre-Thanksgiving Tuesday night in 2014. Meanwhile, Rules Don’t Apply bowed to a modest $65,000 last night.
For the 3- and 5-day weekend periods, Moana looks more than capable of unseating Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them as the top movie at the box office. That Wizarding World prequel should score an easy runner-up spot though, followed by a likely battle between Doctor Strange, Trolls, and Allied for the third through fifth spots.
Following our complete weekend forecast later today, we’ll have updated estimates and extended weekend projections over the course of the next few days.