Weekend Estimates: ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ ($77M+) Makes Marvel 20-for-20; ‘Incredibles 2’ & ‘Jurassic’ Clash for Second; ‘First Purge’ Strong w/ $30M+ 5-Day Launch

Saturday Update: Marvel’s opening day streak officially reached a perfect 20-for-20 yesterday as Ant-Man and the Wasp scored an estimated $33.801 million, including Thursday night’s previous earnings.

The Marvel audience is typically strong during matinee business throughout the weekend, although opening day’s proximity to the July 4th holiday on Wednesday this year makes early estimates a bit more tricky than usual. We’re holding more tightly within earlier ranges for now and expecting between $77-86 million based on its early trajectory.

Some key takeaways for Ant-Man and the Wasp‘s opening day:

  • 49 percent higher than Ant-Man ($22.65 million)
  • 14 percent higher than Captain America: The First Avenger adjusted for 2018 ticket prices (approximately $29.7 million)
  • 4 percent higher than Doctor Strange ($32.6 million)
  • 11 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy ($37.85 million)
  • 12 percent behind Wonder Woman ($38.25 million)

Meanwhile, Incredibles 2 added $9.82 million for an updated domestic haul of $485.2 million. It has a shot at remaining in second place this weekend, leap-frogging Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom on the weekend chart. The latter blockbuster added $9.11 million yesterday and now stands at $313.9 million domestically.

The First Purge pulled $6.06 million on Friday for a three-day running tally of $19.97 million. Sony expects around $18.46 million for the three-day weekend, another strong result for the franchise.

Among sophomore performances, Sicario: Day of the Soldado grossed $2.3 million on Friday for an updated cume of $30.3 million, followed by Uncle Drew in sixth place with $2.165 million and $25.5 million in the bank thus far.

Early weekend estimates are below, including official studio estimates from Fox, Global Road, Sony (Sicario only), and Universal. Updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUL. 6 – SUN, JUL. 8

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Ant-Man and the Wasp $79,000,000 4,206 $18,783 $79,000,000 1 Disney
2 Incredibles 2 $31,000,000 -33% 4,113 -297 $7,537 $506,361,414 4 Disney
3 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $30,890,000 -49% 4,349 -136 $7,103 $335,647,665 3 Universal
4 The First Purge $18,460,000 3,031 $6,090 $32,365,945 1 Universal Pictures
5 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $7,300,000 -62% 3,055 0 $2,390 $35,302,070 2 Sony / Black Label
6 Uncle Drew $6,300,000 -59% 2,742 0 $2,298 $29,623,620 2 Lionsgate / Summit
7 Ocean’s 8 $5,400,000 -35% 2,604 -822 $2,074 $126,866,228 5 Warner Bros.
8 Tag (2018) $3,300,000 -44% 2,157 -1019 $1,530 $48,525,681 4 Warner Bros.
9 Deadpool 2 $1,775,000 -50% 1,267 -827 $1,401 $314,646,400 8 Fox

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? $2,600,000 7% 893 239 $2,912 $12,391,727 5 Focus Features
2 Whitney $1,500,000 454 $3,304 $1,500,000 1 Roadside Attractions
3 Sanju $1,225,000 -55% 359 3 $3,412 $5,939,325 2 FIP
4 Solo: A Star Wars Story $1,000,000 -63% 778 -876 $1,285 $210,860,097 7 Disney
5 Avengers: Infinity War $900,000 -42% 506 -384 $1,779 $674,829,474 11 Disney
6 Superfly $550,000 -61% 535 -622 $1,028 $19,758,400 4 Sony Pictures
7 Book Club $440,000 -34% 374 -131 $1,176 $67,179,126 8 Paramount Pictures
8 Show Dogs $66,508 -18% 132 -14 $504 $17,572,825 8 Global Road Entertainment

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $45,000 39% 52 -28 $865 $699,889,707 21 Disney
2 Hotel Artemis $10,207 -34% 18 -22 $567 $6,655,519 5 Global Road
3 Chappaquiddick $900 -65% 5 -1 $180 $17,388,666 14 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

===

Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Ant-Man and the Wasp scored a strong $11.5 million start from Thursday night’s first showings and fan events, setting the stage for another excellent debut in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

For comparison purposes, the sequel registered 80 percent higher than Ant-Man‘s $6.4 million Thursday night debut three years ago, 3 percent more than Guardians of the Galaxy ($11.2 million), 22 percent more than Doctor Strange‘s November debut ($9.4 million), and 25 percent behind last summer’s Spider-Man: Homecoming ($15.4 million).

Weekend projections remain steady (toward the higher end) with pre-release forecasts. Follow us throughout the weekend for continued updates.

Shawn Robbins

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    austin July 07, 2018

    Universal released The First Purge. Not Sony.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Austin H July 07, 2018

    Universal released The First Purge, not Sony.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Larry b July 09, 2018

    What does the term platform mean? Are those special theatres, contract theatres, required theatres, something else? And why are they different?

    Reply

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