Weekend Estimates: ‘Aquaman’ ($48M+) & ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ ($28M+) Continue Holiday Reign; ‘Vice’ ($8M+) & ‘Holmes and Watson’ ($7M+) Debut

Saturday, December 29 Report: Warner Bros.’ Aquaman continues to float atop the box office after posting another $17.1 million on Friday. Domestically, that brings the DC title’s haul up to $154.3 million after eight days of release, putting it 32 percent ahead of the pace of Venom and 37 percent ahead of Ant-Man and the Wasp. We’re projecting a sophomore weekend around $48.5 million leading into New Year’s Eve on Monday.

Internationally, Aquaman added $18.4 million on Friday — including $2.4 million in China and $2.0 million from Australia, the latter seeing the film’s opening weekend. The Chinese total stands at $251.4 million, bringing the overseas tally to $511.8 million and the global haul to $666.1 million thus far.

Back on the domestic side, Mary Poppins Returns continues to display encouraging holds with $10.62 million added on Friday. That gives the sequel $81.5 million through ten days of play, setting it on a course to potentially exceed our most recent weekend forecast. Current projections now sit around $29.8 million for the three-day frame.

Bumblebee ($6.82 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ($6.435 million), and The Mule ($3.97 million) capped off the top five yesterday, while Vice added $2.73 million in sixth place for a four-day total thus far of $12.64 million. Holmes and Watson added $2.7 million yesterday, giving it $15.1 million earned since Tuesday.

On the award season front, If Beale Street Could Talk expanded to 65 locations with $228K yesterday, while Mary Queen of Scots ($886K) and The Favourite ($775K) continue to perform well in limited release.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, DEC. 28 – SUN, DEC. 30

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Aquaman $48,500,000 -29% 4,125 0 $11,758 $185,735,000 3 Warner Bros.
2 Mary Poppins Returns $29,800,000 27% 4,090 0 $7,286 $100,710,758 2 Disney
3 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $19,000,000 14% 3,813 0 $4,983 $104,500,000 3 Sony / Columbia
4 Bumblebee $19,000,000 -12% 3,550 0 $5,352 $65,278,020 2 Paramount Pictures
5 The Mule $11,200,000 18% 2,787 131 $4,019 $60,158,000 3 Warner Bros.
6 Vice $8,400,000 2,442 $3,440 $18,306,116 1 Annapurna
7 Holmes and Watson $7,600,000 2,776 $2,738 $19,995,000 2 Sony Pictures
8 Second Act $7,200,000 11% 2,607 0 $2,762 $7,200,000 3 STX Entertainment
9 Ralph Breaks the Internet $6,800,000 45% 2,343 -152 $2,902 $175,981,583 6 Disney
10 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $4,600,000 -46% 2,555 -225 $1,800 $265,935,485 8 Universal
11 Welcome to Marwen $2,300,000 -2% 1,911 0 $1,204 $7,837,090 2 Universal Pictures
12 Creed II $1,600,000 3% 1,068 -59 $1,498 $112,163,646 6 MGM / Warner Bros
13 Mortal Engines $1,000,000 -43% 2,995 -108 $334 $14,652,905 3 Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Mary Queen of Scots $2,800,000 23% 841 46 $3,329 $9,151,320 4 Focus Features
2 The Favourite $2,500,000 20% 809 19 $3,090 $15,321,022 6 Fox Searchlight
3 Bohemian Rhapsody $2,300,000 17% 868 -300 $2,650 $189,156,515 9 20th Century Fox
4 Green Book $1,900,000 37% 621 -111 $3,060 $31,492,816 7 Universal Pictures
5 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $1,000,000 11% 515 -167 $1,942 $156,620,000 7 Warner Bros.
6 Instant Family $985,000 52% 744 0 $1,324 $64,600,775 7 Paramount Pictures
7 A Star is Born $500,000 45% 236 -26 $2,119 $201,040,000 13 Warner Bros.
8 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $185,000 -10% 218 -23 $849 $54,557,150 9 Walt Disney Pictures
9 Robin Hood $115,000 28% 189 -41 $608 $30,634,519 6 Lionsgate / Summit

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 If Beale Street Could Talk $725,000 564% 65 60 $11,154 $1,923,810 3 Annapurna
2 Destroyer $38,000 3 $12,667 $95,189 1 Annapurna Pictures
Shawn Robbins

2 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Jesulita December 29, 2018

    aquaman is coming for 2 billion

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    RussVB December 29, 2018

    Using same day/date from 2012 chart as a guide, projected final totals by my calculator —
    Aquaman 300
    Poppins 200
    Bumblebee 120
    Spider-Verse 160
    Mule 90

    Reply

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