Weekend Estimates: ‘Aquaman’ Pacing for Another $30M, Becomes Top DC Overseas Earner; ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ Eyes $17M; ‘Escape Room’ Scores Strong $16M Debut

Saturday Update: Warner Bros. reports Aquaman added another $9.3 million on Friday, raising its domestic haul to $238.3 million after 15 days in release. A third domestic frame around $30 million appears likely at this point.

Perhaps even more impressively, the studio adds that the film added $12.4 million and became the highest grossing DC movie of all-time in the overseas market as it reached $649.3 million outside North America yesterday. That tops The Dark Knight Rises ($636.8 million) — with a number of asterisks — and raises Aquaman‘s global haul to an excellent $887.6 million (including $279.4 million from China).

Back on the domestic front, Sony’s Escape Room is somewhat over-performing as it posted $7.7 million on opening day. That includes Thursday’s $2.345 million start from shows beginning at 4pm, which will likely skew weekend projections at this stage. Either way, this is a great start for the low-budget thriller. Sony expects around $16 million for the weekend.

Mary Poppins Returns took third place with $5.07 million and an updated $128.03 million domestic cume, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ranked fourth with $4.055 million and an updated $124.9 million haul, and Bumblebee capped the top five with $3.94 million / $88.3 million domestic total.

Just outside the top five, The Mule continues to hold very well as it added $2.86 million and now stands at $74.9 million.

Expanding from 65 to 335 locations yesterday, award season contender If Beale Street Could Talk earned $604K and now stands at $3.2 million.

Early weekend estimates are below with studio updates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JAN. 4 – SUN, JAN. 6

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Aquaman $30,000,000 -42% 4,184 59 $7,170 $259,020,880 4 Warner Bros.
2 Mary Poppins Returns $17,000,000 -40% 4,090 0 $4,156 $139,956,305 3 Disney
3 Escape Room $16,000,000 2,717 $5,889 $16,000,000 1 Sony Pictures
4 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $12,900,000 -31% 3,419 -394 $3,773 $133,751,346 4 Sony / Columbia
5 Bumblebee $12,800,000 -39% 3,597 47 $3,559 $97,153,140 3 Paramount Pictures
6 The Mule $8,800,000 -28% 3,212 425 $2,740 $80,868,110 4 Warner Bros.
7 Vice $5,500,000 -29% 2,534 92 $2,170 $29,492,988 2 Annapurna
8 Ralph Breaks the Internet $4,800,000 -29% 2,050 -293 $2,341 $187,279,171 7 Disney
9 Second Act $4,800,000 -35% 2,523 -84 $1,902 $32,837,075 4 STX Entertainment
10 Holmes and Watson $3,400,000 -54% 2,780 4 $1,223 $28,410,922 3 Sony Pictures
11 Bohemian Rhapsody $2,300,000 -2% 1,080 199 $2,130 $193,576,825 10 20th Century Fox
12 Mary Queen of Scots $2,200,000 -19% 1,052 211 $2,091 $13,478,025 5 Focus Features
13 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $1,300,000 -68% 1,622 -933 $801 $269,753,735 9 Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 If Beale Street Could Talk $2,000,000 161% 335 270 $5,970 $4,565,864 4 Annapurna
2 The Favourite $1,900,000 -22% 771 -39 $2,464 $19,294,336 7 Fox Searchlight
3 Green Book $1,700,000 -10% 566 -55 $3,004 $35,123,256 8 Universal Pictures
4 On The Basis Of Sex $1,700,000 148% 112 79 $15,179 $3,798,395 2 Focus Features
5 Creed II $960,000 -39% 893 -175 $1,075 $114,333,952 7 MGM / Warner Bros
6 Robin Hood $770,000 591% 139 -50 $5,540 $31,493,508 7 Lionsgate / Summit
7 Instant Family $720,000 -25% 604 -140 $1,192 $66,230,028 8 Paramount Pictures
8 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $680,000 -31% 401 -114 $1,696 $158,088,573 8 Warner Bros.
9 A Star is Born $610,000 24% 268 32 $2,276 $202,085,867 14 Warner Bros.
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $105,000 -41% 172 -46 $610 $54,799,921 10 Walt Disney Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Destroyer $110,000 99% 6 3 $18,333 $259,786 2 Annapurna Pictures

===

Friday Report: Sony’s Escape Room got off to a strong debut as the first domestic release of 2019, earning $2.345 million yesterday. Comparisons are limited, however, since the film debuted earlier than normal — at 4pm — in an estimated 2,386 locations. The most recent comparison is last January’s Insidious: The Last Key, which opened to $1.98 million from Thursday shows beginning later in the evening (and one extra day removed from holiday vacation time).

The studio still projects around $10 million for the weekend, although that appears to be conservative at this point. Despite the early start and what is effectively three-fourths of a full opening day’s worth of showtimes yesterday, a weekend tally around or north of mid-teen millions is increasingly likely.

More updates to follow throughout the weekend.

Shawn Robbins

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    RussVB January 05, 2019

    “Robin Hood $770,000 (+)591%”
    I’m calling typo on that one.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      kuku January 05, 2019

      ^This.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    SW January 05, 2019

    Since the right half of my screen is taken up by ads, can you please start putting total gross next to weekend in the charts so I can see those together and not have to slide back and forth?

    Reply

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