Weekend Estimates: ‘Fantastic Beasts: Crimes of Grindelwald’ Casting $60M+ Domestic Debut, $100M Globally In 2 Days; ‘Instant Family’ ($14M) & ‘Widows’ ($12M) Roll Out

Saturday Update: Warner’s Fantastic Beasts sequel registered an estimated $25.7 million domestically on Friday, including $9.1 million from Tuesday and Thursday evening’s early shows. By comparison, that came in more than 13 percent behind its predecessor’s $29.7 million first day two years ago and 18 percent behind the second Hobbit film ($31.2 million) in December 2013.

Based on initial trajectories, we’re expecting The Crimes of Grindelwald to register a domestic weekend between $60-65 million at this point, meeting the low-end of pre-release forecasts.

Internationally, the film is off to a healthy start with another $43 million on Friday — giving it $74.3 million overseas (14 percent ahead of the first film at the same point) and $100 million globally through two days of play. That includes China’s Friday estimate of $12.3 million, while excluding early China estimates for Saturday around $15.8 million in that country.

Other key foreign notes from the studio include:

  • UK debuted to an estimated £3.5m ($4.5m) on 1,823 screens, capturing a strong 66% share of the Top 5 films in the market and claim the biggest opening day for a WB title in 2018! Including select previews, the running cume is £3.8m ($4.9m).
  • Mexico debuted to an estimated Ps 38.8m ($1.9m), including sneaks, on 3,695 screens, commanding 72% of the Top 5!  Opening day results are coming in +4% higher than FANTASTIC BEASTS. 
  • And Spain launched to a fantastic €1.3m ($1.5m) from 626 screens, garnering a 68% share of the Top 5 and coming in on par with the opening day of FANTASTIC BEASTS. 
  • Germany had an excellent 2nd day with an estimated €2.3m ($2.6m) on 1,461 screens, capturing 67% share of the Top 5 films.  The cumulative gross is now €4.7m ($5.3m), +28% higher than FANTASTIC BEASTS at the same point in time.
  • Russia generated an estimated RUR 145m ($2.1m) from 3,554 screens, with a whopping 84% share of the Top 5 films and taking the 2-day cume to RUR 285m ($4.2m), tracking +34% higher than FANTASTIC BEASTS’s running cume at the same point in time.
  • Korea continues to strong results in its 3rd day, generating KRW 2.1b ($1.8m) on 1,600 screens with 41% share of the Top 5 Films and bringing the cume to date to KRW 6.2b ($5.4m), roughly on par with FANTASTIC BEASTS.
  • Friday results out of France are coming in at an estimated €1.5m ($1.7m) with 202k admissions on 903 screens and taking 60% share of the Top 5 Films.  The progressive cume after 3 days is now €4.6m ($5.2m), coming in +37% higher than FANSTASTIC BEASTS at the same point in time.
  • Australia pulled in another A$1.9m ($1.4m) on 500 screens, with a running cume of A$ 4.2m ($3.0m), tracking on par with FANTASTIC BEASTS at the same point in time.
  • Brazil generated an estimated Rs 4.7m ($1.3m) on 1,474 screens, bringing the 2-day cume to Rs 15.4m ($4.1m), which is +78% higher than FANTASTIC BEASTS at the same point of time.
  • And Italy came in with an excellent €1.0m ($1.1m) on 832 screens, dominating with 79% share of the Top 5 films.  The running cume is now €2.1m ($2.4m), +17% higher than FANTASTIC BEASTS at the same point in time.

Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch posted a strong hold with $8.91 million yesterday, down just 52 percent from opening day last week. With $93.7 million in the domestic bank through eight days, the hit animated holiday pic is pacing for a sophomore weekend around $37.5 million.

Instant Family debuted in third place on Friday with $4.5 million. While the film had not been expected to reach Wonder‘s $9.7 million first-day figure, this start positions the family comedy for an opening weekend close to $14 million. While coming in on the low end of expectations, that would still represent a healthy start for the film as it’s expected to play well through the holidays.

Bohemian Rhapsody slid 50 percent from last Friday to $4.25 million yesterday, bringing its domestic cume to $116.4 million. Fox is projecting $15.7 million for its third frame.

Widows capped the top five with an estimated $4.2 million opening day on Friday. Solidifying the recurring theme of this weekend’s openers, that sets the strongly reviewed heist film on course for a weekend below previous expectations around $12 million (per Fox projections).

The good news for all three wide openers will be the upcoming Thanksgiving corridor next week, enabling each to build on their momentum as audiences enjoy the first of several breaks from work and school in the coming weeks. That said, competition will be stiff with Creed II and Ralph Breaks the Internet debuting next Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Green Book bowed to $93K from 25 locations on Friday. The studio expects $285K this weekend before Wednesday’s semi-wide expansion.

Early weekend estimates are below with updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, NOV. 16 – SUN, NOV. 18

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $63,000,000 4,163 $15,133 $63,000,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $37,500,000 -45% 4,141 0 $9,056 $125,876,280 2 Universal
3 Bohemian Rhapsody $15,700,000 -50% 3,810 -190 $4,121 $127,885,859 3 20th Century Fox
4 Instant Family $14,000,000 3,286 $4,260 $14,000,000 1 Paramount Pictures
5 Widows $12,000,000 2,803 $4,281 $12,000,000 1 20th Century Fox
6 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $4,800,000 -52% 2,635 -1131 $1,822 $43,992,690 3 Walt Disney Pictures
7 A Star is Born $4,200,000 -48% 2,010 -838 $2,090 $185,690,907 7 Warner Bros.
8 Overlord $3,600,000 -65% 2,859 0 $1,259 $17,492,889 2 Paramount Pictures
9 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $2,500,000 -68% 2,929 0 $854 $13,290,523 2 Sony / Columbia
10 Nobody’s Fool $2,200,000 -67% 1,301 -1167 $1,691 $28,827,618 3 Paramount
11 Venom $1,900,000 -61% 1,307 -1044 $1,454 $210,001,043 7 Sony / Columbia

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Boy Erased $1,300,000 71% 409 332 $3,178 $2,651,950 3 Focus Features
2 Can You Ever Forgive Me? $875,000 -39% 555 164 $1,577 $5,053,185 5 Fox Searchlight
3 The Hate U Give $800,000 -61% 593 -515 $1,349 $28,243,193 7 20th Century Fox
4 A Private War $700,000 256% 865 827 $809 $700,000 3 Aviron Pictures
5 Halloween (2018) $620,000 -84% 922 -1795 $672 $158,716,140 5 Universal Pictures
6 Smallfoot $525,000 -65% 493 -825 $1,065 $81,458,168 8 Warner Bros.
7 Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween $150,000 -83% 307 -1212 $489 $46,379,127 6 Sony
8 The Old Man & The Gun $150,000 -67% 171 -224 $877 $10,600,793 8 Fox Searchlight
9 Incredibles 2 $80,000 -35% 130 -10 $615 $608,400,195 23 Disney
10 Hunter Killer $78,000 -89% 194 -763 $402 $15,642,791 4 Lionsgate / Summit
11 A Simple Favor $30,000 -57% 101 -26 $297 $53,526,171 10 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Green Book $285,000 25 $11,400 $285,000 1 Universal Pictures
2 At Eternity’s Gate $92,000 4 $23,000 $92,000 1 CBS Films
3 The Front Runner $75,000 46% 22 18 $3,409 $166,169 2 Sony / Columbia
4 Disney’s Christopher Robin $30,000 -54% 92 -30 $326 $99,168,899 16 Disney

===

Friday Update: Warner Bros. reports this morning that Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald scored $9.1 million from pre-Friday screenings, including Tuesday night’s fan screening events and all Thursday evening shows (which began at 5pm). Comparisons are skewed due to the earlier Thursday start and Tuesday numbers, but the raw figure itself comes in 4 percent ahead of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($8.75 million) and 3 percent ahead of The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug ($8.8 million).

Fox’s Widows scored a solid $600K start from shows starting at 7pm in 2,200 locations. The strongly reviewed heist film was 37 percent off the pace of Den of Thieves ($950K), although Widows has plenty of upside with a holiday corridor coming up.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Instant Family took in $550K from shows starting at 7pm last night. That’s only 26 percent off Wonder‘s $740K start on the same weekend last year, which had the advantage of built-in awareness from a widely popular book.

With Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch expected to post a strong second weekend hold, this weekend is shaping up to be a busy pre-Thanksgiving frame. Follow Boxoffice for continued updates.

Shawn Robbins

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