Weekend Estimates: ‘Finding Dory’ Finds a $136.2M Opening, New Animated Record; ‘Central Intelligence’ Starts w/ $34.5M

Disney’s Finding Dory swam to the best opening weekend ever for an animated film with an estimated $136.2 million this weekend, though after adjusting for ticket price inflation it drops to being the third-highest animated opening behind 2007’s Shrek the Third and 2004’s Shrek 2. The sequel to the beloved 2003 Pixar classic Finding Nemo broke Pixar’s recent streak of sequels opening lower than their predecessors (adjusted for inflation), such as 2013’s Monsters University and 2011’s Cars 2.

With tremendous buzz surrounding a sequel to what’s considered a “modern classic,” tens of millions of YouTube views for the first trailer, and relentless promotion from star Ellen DeGeneres on her top-rated talk show, the movie was bound to be a huge success. It claims the third-highest opening weekend of the year so far, after Captain America: Civil War and Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice. Both of those films are likely to be more front-loaded than a family-friendly animated film, so Dory could potentially be on track to become the highest-grossing film of the year.

The Pixar family movie starring the voices of Ellen DeGeneres and Albert Brooks started with $54.95 million on Friday (including $9.2 million from Thursday night previews), declined 16.7 percent to $45.77 million on Saturday, and dropped another 22.5 percent to $35.45 million on Sunday. This places its estimated opening-weekend-to-Friday ratio at 2.47 to 1. The film’s Friday claims the highest single day ever for an animated film, though it falls to third when adjusted for ticket price inflation, behind the opening Saturdays of 2004’s Shrek 2 and 2007’s Shrek the Third.

Among other comparable animated films, Dory started 50.5 percent higher than the $90.44 million opening weekend of last summer’s Pixar smash Inside Out, 17.6 percent above the $115.71 million of last summer’s Minions, 23.4 percent above the $110.30 million opening of 2010’s Pixar summer sequel Toy Story 3, and 93.8 percent above the $70.25 million start of the original 2003 Finding Nemo. (The sequel still out-opened the original film even after adjusting for inflation, though by a much smaller 36.2 percent.)

Families comprised 65 percent of the film’s audience, with 43 percent of the audience age 16 or younger. The film had a 55-45 female-male breakdown and notched an impressive A CinemaScore. Among all 17 Pixar films, the lowest “multiple” ratio — which measures the ratio of the cumulative gross to the wide opening weekend — was Cars 2 with 2.89. Assuming Finding Dory meets that benchmark at a minimum if not exceeding it, the film should likely pass $400 million and could make a very serious play for becoming the highest-grossing film of the year. Captain America: Civil War currently holds the top spot of the year with $401.27 million and counting.

Warner Bros.’ Central Intelligence claimed second place with an estimated $34.50 million weekend. The action comedy starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Kevin Hart started with $13.02 million on Friday (including $1.83 million from Thursday night previews), declined 4.3 percent to $12.46 million on Saturday, and dropped another 27.6 percent $9.01 million on Sunday. This places its opening-weekend-to-Friday ratio at an estimated 2.64 to 1. The film had a 51 percent female audience, 43 percent of the audience was under 25, and it received an A- CinemaScore.

Compared to other recent action comedies, Central Intelligence starts 2.0 percent higher than the $33.80 million opening weekend of last year’s similar Kevin Hurt buddy action comedy Get Hard, 18.6 percent above the $29.08 million opening weekend of last year’s Spy, 39.5 percent below the $57.07 million opening of 2014’s 22 Jump Street, 4.9 percent below the $36.30 million opening of 2012’s 21 Jump Street, and 11.7 percent below the $39.11 million opening of 2013’s The Heat.

Warner Bros.’ The Conjuring 2, last week’s first-place film, dropped to third place with a 61.5 percent decline to an estimated $15.55 million. The horror film had a sharper second-weekend decline than the 46.9 percent decline of its 2013 predecessor The Conjuring and the 57.3 percent decline of the 2014 spinoff AnnabelleThe Conjuring 2 has now earned $71.73 million through 10 days, 14.5 percent behind the $83.94 million 10-day gross of its predecessor and 16.3 percent above the $61.64 million 10-day gross of Annabelle.

Lionsgate’s Now You See Me 2 dropped 56.8 percent to an estimated $9.65 million, a significantly larger second-week drop than its 2013 predecessor’s 35.1 percent second-weekend decline. The thriller sequel has earned $41.36 million through 10 days, or 32.0 percent behind the $60.91 million 10-day take of the original film.

Universal’s Warcraft made an estimated $6.52 million on a tremendous 73.0 percent decline. To put that into perspective, that is the third-highest second-weekend decline for a film playing in 3,000 or more theaters, behind only last year’s Fifty Shades of Grey and 2009’s Friday the 13th. (Warcraft‘s decline was close enough to Grey‘s that it may overtake it when weekend actuals are released on Monday.) The fantasy video game adaptation has made $37.71 million through 10 days.

Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse declined 47.4 percent to an estimated $5.21 million. The superhero film had a larger fourth-weekend percentage decline than both of its two predecessors, as it did for its third and second weekends as well. Apocalypse has earned $146.05 million through 24 days, 29.1 percent behind the $206.25 million 24-day take of 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past and 9.9 percent ahead of the $132.89 million 24-day gross of 2011’s X-Men: First Class.

Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows declined 63.8 percent to an estimated $5.20 million. The fantasy superhero sequel has earned $71.92 million through 17 days, 50.5 percent behind the $145.53 million 17-day start of its 2014 predecessor Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and 54.3 percent ahead of the $46.60 million 17-day start of 2007’s reboot TMNT.

Warner Bros.’ Me Before You declined 54.0 percent to $4.15 million, a second straight weekend of 50+ percent declines, somewhat unusual for a romantic drama with decent reviews. It has earned $46.35 million through 17 days.

Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass declined 35.9 percent to $3.61 million. It has earned $69.31 million through 24 days, a gigantic 76.3 percent behind the $293.53 million 24-day gross of 2010 predecessor Alice in Wonderland.

Rounding out the top 10, Disney’s Captain America: Civil War declined 46.7 percent to $2.29 million. The film has made $401.27 million through 45 days, which is 9.7 percent behind the $444.77 million 45-day start of last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron, 0.4 percent above the $399.65 million 45-day gross of 2013’s Iron Man 3, and 60.1 percent ahead of the $250.53 million 45-day take of 2014’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Overseas Update:

Finding Dory led overseas as it did domestically, with an estimated $50.0 million overseas in 29 markets — despite not having opened yet in such major markets as Japan, Brazil, Spain, France, Mexico, or Germany. The movie made $17.5 million in China, $7.6 million in Australia, $3.5 million in Argentina, and $3.4 million in Russia en route to a global total of $186.2 million.

The Conjuring 2 earned an estimated $41.9 million overseas, down 18.9 percent, in 57 markets. It has now earned $116.2 million overseas and $187.93 million global total. Notable grosses include $16.0 million in Mexico, $9.2 million in India, $8.6 million in Brazil, $8.2 million in Indonesia, $7.7 million in Korea, $6.7 million in the United Kingdom, and $5.2 million in Australia.

Warcraft grossed an estimated $41.2 million overseas this weekend in 56 markets. That includes $23.5 million from China, where despite its poor domestic showing Warcraft has become one of the biggest smashes at the Chinese box office in the past few years. The film has now grossed $339.9 million overseas and $377.6 million globally, making for one of the most overseas-heavy grosses for any American film ever.

Now You See Me 2 took in an estimated $15.8 million, down 25.5 percent, in 54 markets. It’s now earned $49.7 million overseas and $91.0 million globally. Notable grosses to date include $11.5 million in Russia, $5.6 million in Australia, $4.8 million in Taiwan, $4.2 million in Brazil, and $3.0 million in Hong Kong.

Me Before You took in an estimated $13.5 million, up more than double over last weekend’s overseas gross, due largely due to a successful expansion into Brazil. The film has now made $36.0 million overseas and $82.35 million globally. Key grosses to date include $9.5 million in the United Kingdom, $4.5 million in Korea, $3.7 million in Brazil, and $2.4 million in Australia.

Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse made an estimated $12.75 million overseas, down 49.0 percent, in 49 markets. It has now earned $364.08 million overseas and $510.13 million globally. Notable foreign grosses to date include $111.61 million in China, $25.65 million in the United Kingdom, $18.67 million in Mexico, $18.03 million in Brazil, and $15.13 million in France.

Sony’s The Angry Birds Movie made an estimated $6.3 million overseas, down 39.4 percent, in 88 markets. The movie has now earned a $157.2 million overseas and $260.3 million global total. Key grosses to date, include $73.9 million in China, $14.1 million in the United Kingdom, $11.9 million in Russia, $10.9 million in Germany, $7.0 million in Brazil, $7.0 million in Mexico, $6.6 million in Australia, $5.8 million in Spain, $5.5 million in France, and $4.6 million in Argentina.

Alice Through the Looking Glass made an estimated $8.0 million overseas, down 45.2 percent, in 45 markets. The film has now earned $166.7 million overseas and $236.0 million globally. Key grosses to date include $57.9 million in China, $13.0 million in the United Kingdom, $12.7 million in Mexico, $9.6 million in Russia, $8.8 million in Brazil, $7.0 million in Germany, $6.9 million in Italy, $6.8 million in France, and $5.9 million in Australia.

Central Intelligence started with an estimated $6.8 million overseas in 24 markets. (Universal is handling international distribution for the film while Warner Bros. handles domestic.)

 

Weekend Actuals for Friday, June 17 – Sunday, June 19, 2016:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Finding Dory $136,183,170 4,305 $31,634 $136,183,170 1 Disney
2 Central Intelligence $34,500,000 3,508 $9,835 $34,500,000 1 Warner Bros. / New Line
3 The Conjuring 2 $15,555,000 -62% 3,356 13 $4,635 $71,730,086 2 Warner Bros. / New Line
4 Now You See Me 2 $9,650,000 -57% 3,232 0 $2,986 $41,362,529 2 Lionsgate / Summit
5 Warcraft $6,520,000 -73% 3,406 6 $1,914 $37,711,525 2 Universal
6 X-Men: Apocalypse $5,210,000 -47% 2,632 -953 $1,979 $146,057,836 4 Fox
7 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows $5,200,000 -64% 3,086 -985 $1,685 $71,929,574 3 Paramount
8 Me Before You $4,155,000 -54% 2,645 -117 $1,571 $46,355,854 3 Warner Bros. / New Line
9 Alice Through the Looking Glass $3,615,385 -36% 1,880 -1018 $1,923 $69,318,309 4 Disney
10 Captain America: Civil War $2,296,207 -47% 1,434 -667 $1,601 $401,277,176 7 Disney
11 The Angry Birds Movie $1,700,000 -74% 2,021 -1062 $841 $103,190,847 5 Sony / Columbia

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Jungle Book (2016) $1,294,860 -53% 953 -543 $1,359 $355,715,511 10 Disney
2 Zootopia $901,786 62% 305 -14 $2,957 $339,461,275 16 Disney
3 The Nice Guys $818,000 -58% 522 -625 $1,567 $34,182,096 5 Warner Bros.
4 Love & Friendship $797,040 -43% 497 -329 $1,604 $10,992,864 6 Roadside / Amazon
5 The Lobster $647,570 -34% 319 -241 $2,030 $6,690,085 13 A24
6 Maggie’s Plan $471,417 -24% 335 24 $1,407 $1,805,636 5 Sony Pictures Classics
7 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising $327,000 -85% 464 -1117 $705 $54,517,865 5 Universal
8 Genius $306,070 211% 133 117 $2,301 $442,620 2 Roadside Attractions
9 Money Monster $235,000 -66% 286 -445 $822 $40,322,561 6 Sony / TriStar
10 Weiner $144,000 -10% 180 109 $800 $1,055,246 5 IFC Films / Sundance Selects
11 Clown $27,000 100 $270 $27,000 1 Weinstein / Dimension

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Man Who Knew Infinity $117,000 -30% 86 -29 $1,360 $3,386,720 8 IFC Films
2 Dark Horse (2016) $78,371 81% 43 15 $1,823 $368,707 7 Sony Pictures Classics
3 The Meddler $69,508 -46% 94 -42 $739 $4,033,872 9 Sony Pictures Classics
4 De Palma $37,659 24% 19 16 $1,982 $81,420 2 A24
5 The Music of Strangers $30,370 23% 11 8 $2,761 $67,734 2
6 Sing Street $25,500 -61% 55 -56 $464 $3,037,871 10 Weinstein Company
7 Hello, My Name Is Doris $22,020 -31% 47 -2 $469 $14,376,567 15 Roadside Attractions
8 The Witness (2016) $17,500 35% 9 7 $1,944 $57,605 3 FilmRise
9 Diary of a Chambermaid $16,872 9 $1,875 $32,192 2 Cohen Media Group
10 Seoul Searching $6,779 1 $6,779 $6,779 1
11 Range 15 $1,044 1 $1,044 $1,044 1 Tugg