Weekend Estimates: ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Bites Out $140M+ on High End of Expectations; ‘Incredibles 2’ Aims for $79M+

Saturday Update: Universal reports this morning that Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom bowed to an estimated $58.68 million domestic opening on Friday, including Thursday night’s earnings. That continues to line up with the high end of pre-release expectations, and the studio officially projects a weekend of $144.1 million.

Key takeaways from yesterday include:

  • 10.7 percent higher opening day than Deadpool 2 ($53.03 million)
  • 4.6 percent higher opening day than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($56.1 million)
  • 28.4 percent lower opening day than Jurassic World ($81.95 million)
  • 5th highest June opening day of all-time (behind Jurassic WorldIncredibles 2Twilight Saga: Eclipse, and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen)

Word of mouth will be a key factor in driving weekend business and beyond, but we continue to note this is a franchise not known to be as front-loaded as comic book and other fan-driven series. All in all, a $140 million+ debut would mark a strong debut in tandem with its overseas performance despite the expected decline from 2015’s record debut.

Meanwhile, Incredibles 2 posted a slightly sharper than expected drop with $24.04 million yesterday, off 66.3 percent from opening day last week. Much of that can be attributed to the strong competition for families with older kids turning out for Jurassic, which could help the Pixar sequel achieve a stronger Saturday/Sunday bump than is typical for animated pics this time of year. With $293.5 million earned domestically in just eight days, Incredibles 2 continues on a record animated box office pace. This weekend should ring up close to $80 million, down from pre-weekend forecasts, although that estimate could climb back up again depending on how strong Jurassic is affecting its early weekend play.

Initial weekend estimates from several studios and our own projections can be found below. Complete and updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUN. 22 – SUN, JUN. 24

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $144,100,000 4,475 $32,201 $144,100,000 1 Universal
2 Incredibles 2 $79,000,000 -57% 4,410 0 $17,914 $348,446,690 2 Disney
3 Ocean’s 8 $11,200,000 -41% 3,656 -489 $3,063 $99,935,760 3 Warner Bros.
4 Tag (2018) $7,900,000 -47% 3,382 0 $2,336 $30,067,545 2 Warner Bros.
5 Deadpool 2 $5,100,000 -41% 2,420 -792 $2,107 $304,000,321 6 Fox
6 Solo: A Star Wars Story $4,000,000 -60% 2,338 -844 $1,711 $202,131,870 5 Disney
7 Hereditary $3,500,000 -49% 2,002 -996 $1,748 $34,691,965 3 A24
8 Superfly $3,100,000 -55% 2,220 20 $1,396 $15,016,395 2 Sony Pictures
9 Avengers: Infinity War $2,500,000 -54% 1,456 -708 $1,717 $669,484,449 9 Disney

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? $1,600,000 60% 348 252 $4,598 $3,855,778 3 Focus Features
2 Book Club $830,000 -55% 672 -984 $1,235 $64,569,212 6 Paramount Pictures
3 Black Panther $800,000 452% 115 -31 $6,957 $700,471,468 19 Disney
4 Gotti $745,000 -57% 466 -37 $1,599 $3,186,691 2 Vertical Entertainment
5 Adrift $700,000 -68% 871 -1058 $804 $29,002,935 4 STX Entertainment
6 Overboard $545,000 25% 325 -256 $1,677 $49,368,977 8 Lionsgate / Pantelion
7 Breaking In $360,000 -17% 223 -281 $1,614 $45,771,515 7 Universal Pictures
8 A Quiet Place $180,000 -50% 215 -182 $837 $186,872,505 12 Paramount
9 Show Dogs $75,172 -57% 135 -292 $557 $17,305,489 6 Global Road Entertainment
10 Hotel Artemis $65,081 -94% 163 -2136 $399 $6,551,055 3 Global Road

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 A Wrinkle in Time $90,000 -95% 90 -155 $1,000 $100,389,926 16 Walt Disney Pictures
2 Chappaquiddick $2,400 -51% 8 -6 $300 $17,377,504 12 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

===

Friday Report: Universal confirms this morning that Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom bowed to $15.3 million from Thursday night’s first domestic showings beginning at 7pm in 3,600 theaters.

That lines up with pre-release expectations as the film had been tracking for anywhere between $115 million and $140 million in its domestic opening weekend, a range that holds up with last night’s early results as the film is expected to generate more walk-up business than fan-heavy franchises reliant on massive pre-sales.

Here’s how Fallen Kingdom compares to other films for the usual comparisons’ sake:

  • 8.5 percent ahead of Solo: A Star Wars Story ($14.1 million)
  • 18 percent behind Deadpool 2 ($18.6 million)
  • 10 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($17 million)
  • 17 percent behind Jurassic World ($18.5 million)

Follow us and check back here throughout the weekend for continued updates.

Shawn Robbins

12 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS June 22, 2018

    I think this one will open right around $130M.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Ben L June 22, 2018

    Wouldn’t be surprised with a sub 100 debut but I expect more like something in the 110-120 range but looking at last Jedi to solo there was a 38% drop in the opening weekends which a similar drop would give JW a 79 million opening weekend but still I expect a bit over one hundred and about a B+ CinemaScore

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Dheeraj June 22, 2018

    110- 125 million

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    David Howell June 22, 2018

    As ever, Friday will tell us a lot more than Thursday. It’ll probably be a much more frontloaded opening weekend than JW, but there’s definitely upside for more given that this film’s audience is mostly not a see-it-now-for-fear-of-spoilers type. (Not to say the Jurassic franchise doesn’t have that kind of fan – heck, someone I follow on Twitter is one! – but it’s not the same type of crowd you get with, say, an MCU title. This franchise is built on popcorn CGI thrills.)

    The elephant in the room remains I2, which I suspect will have significant overlap with JWFK. It’s certainly not out of the question that I2 will win the “real” weekend, i.e. the FSS after taking out JWFK’s Thursday previews.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      TTVOMJ June 23, 2018

      comparing finding dory’s and incredibles’ 2 opening weekend and weekday numbers….FD:135mil + 78m=213m ..now I2: 182m+ 87m=270m…if we look at pure numbers…both of them earned a bit more during 4 weekdays than 2nd weekend..FD earned 73m while I2 will earn around 80m based on early estimates…but if we look at it percentage wise compared to opening weekend and counting 2nd friday, incredibles 2 could theoretically fall below FD pure numbers by the end of the weekend…it too tells a story…

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Roger Perry June 22, 2018

    Do not equate the poor Rotten Tomatoes score for JWFK to the negativity surrounding Solo. This movie will not open under $100m. I say $120m to $130m. People love their dinosaurs!

    And I2 will not have a $100m 2nd weekend. The five movies that had a second weekend over $100m all came off of $200m plus openings with no competition like JPFK.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    TTVOMJ June 23, 2018

    i have a feeling that black panther number is a typo..no need to post this..just correct it:)

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Delfra June 23, 2018

      @TTVOMJ – You’re right, those “Black Panther” numbers indeed has to be a typo. After looking closer i noticed the mistake. It actually should be close to around $699.8 million after this weekend. I think it will likely get to $700m domestic within the next weekend. What i don’t understand is Disney’s reluctance to put the film back in more theaters for a week or so when they’ve done it twice over the last month or so with “A Wrinkle In Time”. Had they done this with BP would have easily been over $700m domestic already. What a goofy a** studio lmao.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        RussVB June 23, 2018

        Agreed — Black Panther weekend probably 80,000 not 800,000.

        Wrinkle In Time got to 100 M via standard Disney BS. They run a few double features with a big new release then
        double-count the take, adding the full $ to both the actual draw & the piggybacking oldie.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Delfra June 23, 2018

          @RussVB – That’s true. I’m knocking Disney just a little because they’ve failed to put Black Panther back in more theaters, but if it get’s to $700m domestic the way it’s currently going it will be morr organic and natural and a little more impressive when you really think about it.

          Reply
  7. Avatar
    Delfra June 23, 2018

    Congrats to “Black Panther” reaching $700 million domestic if the projection holds, that is quite a milestone to achieve. Though JWFK was not coming close to matching the previous film’s opening weekend, it appears it’s numbers this weekend will be quite a bit stronger than some we’re anticpating. I also expect “Incredibles 2” to hit between $80-$85m this weekend when actual numbers are counted.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Roo June 23, 2018

      sorry to burst the bubble, but 800k is NOT the correct number. BOM reports it earned 23k, -49% with last week, should be about 80k or so for the weekend…..

      Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *