Weekend Estimates: ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Bites Out $140M+ on High End of Expectations; ‘Incredibles 2’ Aims for $79M+
Saturday Update: Universal reports this morning that Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom bowed to an estimated $58.68 million domestic opening on Friday, including Thursday night’s earnings. That continues to line up with the high end of pre-release expectations, and the studio officially projects a weekend of $144.1 million.
Key takeaways from yesterday include:
- 10.7 percent higher opening day than Deadpool 2 ($53.03 million)
- 4.6 percent higher opening day than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($56.1 million)
- 28.4 percent lower opening day than Jurassic World ($81.95 million)
- 5th highest June opening day of all-time (behind Jurassic World, Incredibles 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen)
Word of mouth will be a key factor in driving weekend business and beyond, but we continue to note this is a franchise not known to be as front-loaded as comic book and other fan-driven series. All in all, a $140 million+ debut would mark a strong debut in tandem with its overseas performance despite the expected decline from 2015’s record debut.
Meanwhile, Incredibles 2 posted a slightly sharper than expected drop with $24.04 million yesterday, off 66.3 percent from opening day last week. Much of that can be attributed to the strong competition for families with older kids turning out for Jurassic, which could help the Pixar sequel achieve a stronger Saturday/Sunday bump than is typical for animated pics this time of year. With $293.5 million earned domestically in just eight days, Incredibles 2 continues on a record animated box office pace. This weekend should ring up close to $80 million, down from pre-weekend forecasts, although that estimate could climb back up again depending on how strong Jurassic is affecting its early weekend play.
Initial weekend estimates from several studios and our own projections can be found below. Complete and updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.
Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUN. 22 – SUN, JUN. 24
|1||Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom||$144,100,000||—||4,475||—||$32,201||$144,100,000||1||Universal|
|3||Ocean’s 8||$11,200,000||-41%||3,656||-489||$3,063||$99,935,760||3||Warner Bros.|
|4||Tag (2018)||$7,900,000||-47%||3,382||0||$2,336||$30,067,545||2||Warner Bros.|
|6||Solo: A Star Wars Story||$4,000,000||-60%||2,338||-844||$1,711||$202,131,870||5||Disney|
|9||Avengers: Infinity War||$2,500,000||-54%||1,456||-708||$1,717||$669,484,449||9||Disney|
|1||Won’t You Be My Neighbor?||$1,600,000||60%||348||252||$4,598||$3,855,778||3||Focus Features|
|2||Book Club||$830,000||-55%||672||-984||$1,235||$64,569,212||6||Paramount Pictures|
|6||Overboard||$545,000||25%||325||-256||$1,677||$49,368,977||8||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|7||Breaking In||$360,000||-17%||223||-281||$1,614||$45,771,515||7||Universal Pictures|
|8||A Quiet Place||$180,000||-50%||215||-182||$837||$186,872,505||12||Paramount|
|9||Show Dogs||$75,172||-57%||135||-292||$557||$17,305,489||6||Global Road Entertainment|
|10||Hotel Artemis||$65,081||-94%||163||-2136||$399||$6,551,055||3||Global Road|
|1||A Wrinkle in Time||$90,000||-95%||90||-155||$1,000||$100,389,926||16||Walt Disney Pictures|
|2||Chappaquiddick||$2,400||-51%||8||-6||$300||$17,377,504||12||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
Friday Report: Universal confirms this morning that Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom bowed to $15.3 million from Thursday night’s first domestic showings beginning at 7pm in 3,600 theaters.
That lines up with pre-release expectations as the film had been tracking for anywhere between $115 million and $140 million in its domestic opening weekend, a range that holds up with last night’s early results as the film is expected to generate more walk-up business than fan-heavy franchises reliant on massive pre-sales.
Here’s how Fallen Kingdom compares to other films for the usual comparisons’ sake:
- 8.5 percent ahead of Solo: A Star Wars Story ($14.1 million)
- 18 percent behind Deadpool 2 ($18.6 million)
- 10 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($17 million)
- 17 percent behind Jurassic World ($18.5 million)
Follow us and check back here throughout the weekend for continued updates.