Weekend Estimates: LEGO Movie 2 Extends Franchise Woes, Builds Soft $30M Debut; What Men Want Eyes $18M+ Start

Saturday Update:  The box office isn’t in for the kind of rebound long expected this weekend as its two headliners have started their runs below expectations, most notably the crucial building block of The LEGO Movie 2. Warner Bros. reports the sequel opened to $8.5 million on Friday, which puts the animated sequel on pace for an opening weekend around $30 million or slightly higher (excluding January’s 26’s $600K sneak preview earnings). Unfortunately, these figures come in well below expectations entering the weekend — made all the more surprising given the film’s largely positive reviews and the lack of direct family competition in the market to begin the new year.

Four years ago, The LEGO Movie opened to $17.1 million on its first day (toward a $67.6 million weekend), followed by The LEGO Batman Movie‘s strong $14.5 million first day and $53 million first frame. The LEGO Ninjago Movie represented the franchise’s first misfire with a $5.8 million first day and $20.4 million opening weekend in September 2017. To the surprise of many in the industry, LEGO Movie 2 is performing much closer to that benchmark than the first two films in the series. While this underscores the apparent burn-out of interest among audiences after four films in five years, the positive takeaway at this point is that the film will at least be able to enjoy a double holiday weekend in its second frame next week.

In slightly more positive news this morning, What Men Want scored a $6.6 million opening day for Paramount. While this comes in below pre-release expectations as well, the comedy is at least on course for a weekend around the studio’s conservative projections earlier in the week. We’re expecting an $18.5 million frame based on yesterday’s figure.

Liam Neeson’s thriller Cold Pursuit opened to $3.643 million Friday, generally in the realm of expectations entering the weekend. Lionsgate projects a $10.25 million frame.

Rounding out the openers, The Prodigy pulled $2.02 million on Friday and looks to be on track for a $5.45 million weekend based on distributor Orion’s projections this morning.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, FEB. 8 – SUN, FEB. 10

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $30,500,000 4,303 $7,088 $31,100,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 What Men Want $18,500,000 2,912 $6,353 $18,500,000 1 Paramount
3 Cold Pursuit $10,250,000 2,630 $3,897 $10,250,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
4 The Upside $7,000,000 -19% 3,372 -196 $2,076 $85,580,366 5 STX Entertainment
5 Glass $6,000,000 -37% 3,254 -411 $1,844 $98,054,580 4 Universal
6 The Prodigy $5,453,981 2,530 $2,156 $5,453,981 1 Orion Pictures
7 Green Book $3,500,000 -19% 2,149 -499 $1,629 $61,434,776 13 Universal Pictures
8 Aquaman $3,300,000 -32% 2,202 -724 $1,499 $328,547,042 9 Warner Bros.
9 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $3,200,000 -30% 1,726 -508 $1,854 $179,981,627 9 Sony / Columbia
10 Miss Bala $2,600,000 -62% 2,203 0 $1,180 $11,740,096 2 Sony Pictures
11 A Dog’s Way Home $2,000,000 -45% 2,009 -953 $996 $38,978,019 5 Sony Pictures
12 The Kid Who Would Be King $1,500,000 -65% 1,846 -1682 $813 $15,714,805 3 20th Century Fox
13 Escape Room $1,500,000 -49% 1,339 -603 $1,120 $54,540,233 6 Sony Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 They Shall Not Grow Old $1,600,000 -34% 827 92 $1,935 $13,492,516 8 Warner Bros.
2 Bohemian Rhapsody $1,200,000 -34% 839 -525 $1,430 $210,464,432 15 20th Century Fox
3 Bumblebee $830,000 -57% 976 -805 $850 $125,735,470 8 Paramount Pictures
4 The Favourite $780,000 -50% 605 -949 $1,289 $30,180,041 12 Fox Searchlight
5 Mary Poppins Returns $730,000 -64% 842 -862 $867 $169,663,344 8 Disney
6 Vice $634,000 -44% 707 -630 $897 $45,204,053 7 Annapurna
7 A Star is Born $540,000 -39% 456 -496 $1,184 $208,725,869 19 Warner Bros.
8 The Mule $440,000 -51% 503 -548 $875 $102,592,904 9 Warner Bros.
9 Ralph Breaks the Internet $380,000 -50% 398 -397 $955 $197,610,984 12 Disney
10 Ek Ladki Ko Dekha Toh Aisa Laga $300,000 -50% 193 0 $1,554 $1,090,595 2 FIP
11 If Beale Street Could Talk $270,000 -44% 266 -188 $1,015 $13,765,407 9 Annapurna
12 Serenity $125,000 -93% 283 -2278 $442 $8,446,614 3 Aviron Pictures
13 Destroyer $90,000 -64% 144 -91 $625 $1,463,307 7 Annapurna Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Perfect Strangers $34,000 0% 83 46 $410 $1,002,370 5 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
2 Replicas $8,000 -53% 29 -22 $276 $4,037,141 5 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

===

Friday Report: Warner Bros.’ The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part earned a healthy $2.1 million in pre-weekend grosses, including $1.5 million from shows beginning at 4pm yesterday. The overall figure also includes $600K from sneak previews on January 26. Comp-wise, the combined earnings are similar to LEGO Batman Movie and The Grinch ($2.2 million each) — although neither of those films had pre-Thursday sneak earnings.

Paramount’s What Men Want is off to a very positive start with $1.25 million earned from shows beginning at 7pm last night. That’s only 7 percent less than Night School‘s $1.35 million start a few months ago.

Cold Pursuit brought in $540K for Lionsgate, which is comparable to the $650K earned by The Foreigner. Fellow Liam Neeson thriller The Commuter opened to $700K last year.

Meanwhile, The Prodigy grossed a reported $350K for Orion Pictures as it aims to attract horror fans this weekend. That figure is behind the $625K earned by The Possession of Hannah Grace.

Follow Boxoffice for additional updates throughout the weekend.

Shawn Robbins

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Greg February 09, 2019

    Lego Movie…5 years was an awful long time to wait for “not as good as the first one.”

    Reply
    • Avatar
      BDTrooper February 10, 2019

      Few sequels are as good as the first one, and while 5 years may be a long time, there are plenty of sequels that take longer, plus there were two other Lego movies in between. I think that last Ninjago movie hurt the brand a bit, as it was too much Lego, and not as well received or attended at the box office as its predecessors. Sometimes too much is just too much.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Alexander N. February 09, 2019

    All those times I said httyd 3 will make more in its opening than Lego 2 people laughed. Don’t get me wrong $31.1 million opening for lego 2 is not a failure by any means, all I’m saying is that my Httyd 3 opening weekend prediction of $60-70 million still stands.

    Reply

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