Weekend Estimates (Update): ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ Repeats As ‘Christopher Robin’ Settles for Second; ‘Spy Who Dumped Me’ Eyes $12M+

Sunday Update: After a close race to begin the weekend, Mission: Impossible – Fallout is estimated to handily win the weekend as it continues to outperform its predecessor’s already solid second weekend holds. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin is on pace to open slightly below expectations. Check out our further analysis here.

===

Saturday Update: Tom Cruise, writer/director Christopher McQuarrie, and Paramount remained atop the box office on Friday as Mission: Impossible – Fallout added $9.85 million in its eighth day of domestic play, giving it $99.34 million thus far — nearly 14 percent ahead of the pace of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation through the same point in release. We’re projecting a strong sophomore weekend take between $32-34 million.

Disney’s Christopher Robin opened in second place with a solid $9.465 million opening day. For comparison purposes, that’s 36 percent higher than the $6.95 million first day of Pete’s Dragon two Augusts ago, setting the stage for a weekend debut within the realm of expectations at the high end of the $20 million range, with an outside shot at $30 million depending on the strength of Saturday and Sunday’s matinee business.

The Spy Who Dumped Me scored $5 million on opening day Friday, coming in on the low end of pre-release expectations but still in a position to develop staying power as one of the few late summer releases aimed at a female audience. Current projections indicate an opening weekend between $12-14 million.

The Darkest Minds took in $2.315 million yesterday and appears to be on course of a weekend debut between $5-6 million.

Meanwhile, Eighth Grade expanded into semi-wide release with a healthy $1.005 million from 1,084 locations on Friday, Death of a Nation bowed to $950,000 from 1,005 theaters, and Blindspotting took in $194,000 from 523 locations.

This weekend’s early estimates are below. Full studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, AUG. 3 – SUN, AUG. 5

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $33,000,000 -46% 4,395 9 $7,509 $122,487,371 2 Paramount
2 Disney’s Christopher Robin $27,700,000 3,602 $7,690 $27,700,000 1 Disney
3 The Spy Who Dumped Me $12,700,000 3,111 $4,082 $12,700,000 1 Lionsgate
4 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again $8,900,000 -41% 3,359 -155 $2,650 $91,144,550 3 Universal Pictures
5 The Equalizer 2 $8,400,000 -40% 2,725 -663 $3,083 $79,456,265 3 Sony / Columbia
6 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $8,200,000 -33% 3,162 -843 $2,593 $136,455,881 6 Sony / Columbia
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp $6,000,000 -32% 2,233 -780 $2,687 $195,281,435 5 Disney
8 The Darkest Minds $5,600,000 3,127 $1,791 $5,600,000 1 20th Century Fox
9 Incredibles 2 $5,000,000 -31% 1,802 -814 $2,775 $583,132,290 8 Disney
10 Teen Titans GO! to the Movies $4,500,000 -57% 3,188 0 $1,412 $20,424,557 2 Warner Bros.
11 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $3,900,000 -42% 1,914 -771 $2,038 $405,508,075 7 Universal
12 Eighth Grade $2,700,000 113% 1,084 926 $2,491 $6,411,474 4 A24
13 Death of a Nation $2,500,000 1,005 $2,488 $2,500,000 1 Quality Flix / Pure Flix
14 Skyscraper $2,100,000 -61% 1,523 -1250 $1,379 $64,330,165 4 Universal Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The First Purge $915,000 -59% 708 -692 $1,292 $67,743,080 5 Universal Pictures
2 Sorry To Bother You $750,000 -45% 404 -398 $1,856 $14,856,602 5 Annapurna Pictures
3 Blindspotting $575,000 -55% 523 0 $1,099 $3,087,486 3 Lionsgate / Summit
4 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $350,000 -48% 216 -358 $1,620 $49,422,390 6 Sony / Black Label
5 Avengers: Infinity War $250,000 -38% 205 -87 $1,220 $678,066,833 15 Disney
6 Uncle Drew $215,000 -56% 202 -330 $1,064 $41,901,816 6 Lionsgate / Summit
7 Solo: A Star Wars Story $190,000 25% 200 35 $950 $213,026,501 11 Disney
8 Deadpool 2 $175,000 -37% 196 -71 $893 $318,014,529 12 Fox

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $47,000 1779% 25 10 $1,880 $700,016,026 25 Disney

===

Friday Update: Disney reports this morning that Christopher Robin brought in an estimated $1.5 million from Thursday night’s opening shows. For comparison purposes, that comes in 15 percent ahead of A Wrinkle In Time ($1.3 million) and 92 percent ahead of The BFG ($780,000). Other weekend comps like Peter Rabbit and, notably, Pete’s Dragon did not hold Thursday night opening shows.

The Spy Who Dumped Me earned $950,000 for Lionsgate last night, coming in at less than half of Bad Moms‘ $2.0 million and somewhat ahead of Rough Night‘s $700,000.

Fox’s The Darkest Minds posted $550,000 in its start — half of If I Stay‘s $1.1 million August debut four years ago and slightly ahead of The 5th Wave‘s $480,000 January start in 2016.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout remains expected to give Robin a fight for first place in the former’s second weekend of play.

Follow Boxoffice throughout the weekend for further updates.

Shawn Robbins

2 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Orlando August 04, 2018

    I figured MI: Fallout would be number #1 again, it probably will spend 1-2 more weeks at the top. MIF will follow Ant-Man and the Wasp as the last two films from this summer to hit $200 million domestic. It looks like Black Panther will finally reach $700 million domestic, what a monumental achievement for it, congrats to it. 2018 has definitely been a year of some monster hits.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Jacen August 04, 2018

    Black Panther: 700mil. Finally!

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *