Weekend Estimates: ‘The Nun’ Tops ‘Conjuring’ Universe Openers; ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ Adds $13M+; ‘Peppermint’ Eyes $12.5M+ Debut

Saturday Update: As expected, The Nun earned a new record opening day performance for The Conjuring universe with an estimated $22.37 million on Friday (including Thursday night’s results).

This marks the first time in the franchise’s five-film, five-year history that a film has surpassed the $20 million threshold, topping the series’ previous high of $16.96 million by the first Conjuring film in July 2013. Based on early trajectories and performances of past autumn horror releases — combined with more middle-of-the-road reception (“C” Cinemascore, 52 percent Flixster score, 29 percent Rotten Tomatoes score) compared to fellow Conjuring films — we’re continuing to project an opening weekend figure around $45 million.

Internationally, The Nun took in a strong $20.2 million from 60 markets on Friday, bringing the running overseas total to $32.1 million. Highlights include the biggest opening day ever for a horror film in Mexico with $3.6 million, which also stands as the country’s second biggest opening day of 2018 behind Avengers: Infinity War.

Peppermint similarly met expectations with an estimated $4.65 million opening day in North America, just behind The Foreigner‘s $4.77 million first day last fall and slightly ahead of Death Wish ($4.28 million) earlier this year. Weekend projections stand around $12.7 million as of this morning.

Meanwhile, Crazy Rich Asians added another $3.83 million on Friday, down just 34 percent from last Friday and bringing its domestic haul to $126.5 million thus far. Look for a third weekend take around $13.5 million.

Rounding out the wide releases for the weekend, God Bless the Broken Road opened below industry and studio expectations with an estimated $493,000 opening day. Freestyle Releasing is projecting a $1.5 million debut weekend.

Early weekend estimates are below. Check back on Sunday for updated estimates from all major studios.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, SEP. 7 – SUN, SEP. 9, 2018

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Nun $45,000,000 3,876 $11,610 $45,000,000 1 Warner Bros.
2 Crazy Rich Asians $13,500,000 -39% 3,865 0 $3,493 $136,122,165 4 Warner Bros.
3 Peppermint $12,700,000 2,980 $4,262 $12,700,000 1 STX Entertainment
4 Searching $4,600,000 -24% 2,009 802 $2,290 $14,396,130 3 Sony Pictures
5 The Meg $4,300,000 -59% 3,511 -250 $1,225 $129,842,774 5 Warner Bros.
6 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $3,900,000 -45% 2,334 -305 $1,671 $212,216,767 7 Paramount
7 Disney’s Christopher Robin $3,500,000 -34% 2,518 -407 $1,390 $92,029,090 6 Disney
8 Operation Finale $2,900,000 -52% 1,818 0 $1,595 $13,964,446 2 MGM
9 Alpha $2,600,000 -43% 2,521 -360 $1,031 $32,542,518 4 Sony / Columbia
10 BlacKkKlansman $2,600,000 -38% 1,547 -219 $1,681 $43,488,530 5 Focus Features
11 God Bless the Broken Road $1,500,000 1,235 $1,215 $1,500,000 1 Freestyle Releasing
12 Incredibles 2 $1,200,000 -64% 1,446 -1444 $830 $604,313,505 13 Disney
13 Mile 22 $1,100,000 -71% 1,802 -1148 $610 $35,005,146 4 STX Entertainment
14 The Happytime Murders $1,000,000 -77% 1,839 -1417 $544 $19,945,427 3 STX Entertainment
15 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $870,000 -59% 1,012 -409 $860 $163,981,613 11 Sony / Columbia
16 Kin (2018) $700,000 -77% 2,141 0 $327 $5,213,611 2 Lionsgate / Summit

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Slender Man $715,000 -61% 983 -551 $727 $29,569,082 5 Sony / Screen Gems
2 Ya Veremos $640,000 -65% 369 0 $1,734 $3,185,037 2 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
3 Ant-Man and the Wasp $560,000 -60% 548 -282 $1,022 $214,763,201 10 Disney
4 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again $520,000 -59% 614 -396 $847 $118,989,340 8 Universal Pictures
5 The Equalizer 2 $390,000 -73% 646 -830 $604 $101,476,758 8 Sony / Columbia
6 A.X.L. $195,000 -86% 555 -1155 $351 $6,133,595 3 Global Road Entertainment
7 The Spy Who Dumped Me $100,000 -73% 207 -253 $483 $33,319,790 6 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Blindspotting $33,000 -47% 44 -35 $750 $4,309,425 8 Lionsgate / Summit
2 Uncle Drew $28,000 -56% 79 -13 $354 $42,448,589 11 Lionsgate / Summit
3 Solo: A Star Wars Story $24,000 -60% 62 -28 $387 $213,740,869 16 Disney
4 Beautifully Broken $23,000 -87% 55 -306 $418 $1,172,974 3 ArtAffects Entertainment
5 Avengers: Infinity War $16,000 -73% 60 -32 $267 $678,804,703 20 Disney

===

Friday Update: Warner Bros. reports this morning that The Nun earned $5.4 million from last night’s first shows, becoming the top opening night gross among all five films in the Conjuring universe. Here’s how the latest chapter’s earnings stack up against similar films:

  • 26 percent ahead of A Quiet Place ($4.3 million)
  • 35 percent ahead of Annabelle: Creation ($4.0 million)
  • 59 percent ahead of The Conjuring 2 ($3.4 million)
  • 157 percent ahead of Annabelle ($2.1 million)
  • 63 percent ahead of The Conjuring ($3.31 million)

Direct comparisons are limited at this point due to the September release and front-loading potential as a fan-favorite franchise, but if The Nun plays out with similar Thursday-to-weekend ratios as Annabelle: Creation and It did last year, an opening weekend between $45-50 million remains in play.

Meanwhile, Peppermint opened to $800k for STX last night, coming in 23 percent ahead of Death Wish ($650k) and 3 percent ahead of the studio’s own The Foreigner ($775k). Opening weekend expectations remain in line with previous forecasts.

Shawn Robbins

5 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Peter September 07, 2018

    Was it dumb for STX to open Peppermint against The Nun? They’re both R-rated thrillers starring women, but The Nun continues a proven franchise, which Peppermint’s bigger star power was always unlikely to match, let alone top.

    I think STX should have gone with Sept. 21 or 28 ….

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Brian de Castro September 07, 2018

      I think you’re right and Peppermint might have fared better later in the month. I still think some studios underestimate horror movies. Though, you’d think STX would know better having had some success with The Boy, and to a lesser extent, The Bye Bye Man. Horror is hotter than ever, from Get Out to It to A Quiet Place. And The Conjuring franchise is well established and has been consistently successful. That said, Peppermint does look like a decent revenge film, and it gets Jennifer Garner back to her a**-kicking roots, ala Alias.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Rob September 07, 2018

    seems like STX can’t deliver an opening above $15m

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Glen September 08, 2018

    Did Mission Impossible just drop out of theatres

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Roo September 08, 2018

      Nope, expected to be 7th this weekend. Maybe it went out at your theater though.

      Reply

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