Weekend Estimates: ‘The Predator’ Targets $25M+ Debut; ‘A Simple Favor’ ($15M+) & ‘White Boy Rick’ ($9M+) Healthy; ‘The Nun’ Adds $18M+

Saturday Update: Fox reports The Predator earned an estimated $10.45 million opening day on Friday, including Thursday evening’s $2.5 million start. The studio projects the film will bring in $25 million for the weekend overall, while Boxoffice’s projection currently stands around $26 million this morning.

Breaking down Predator‘s opening day, the film’s “Friday proper” earnings of $7.95 million represented 4.18x its Thursday gross, an encouraging signal when compared to Alien: Covenant‘s 3.64x multiple and Blade Runner 2049‘s 3.15x. On the whole, opening day registered 32 percent below the former ($15.3 million) and 17 percent below the latter ($12.6 million). As noted earlier, and exemplified in Friday results so far, weekend matinee potential during this time of year could still play to the film’s advantage.

Posting a strong debut in second place yesterday was A Simple Favor, netting $5.92 million (including Thursday) and living up to expectations for a healthy start driven by positive reviews, word of mouth, and the star power of Blake Lively and Anna Kendrick. Favor‘s opening day registered just 1.5 percent behind Red Sparrow ($6.0 million), 53 percent ahead of Annihilation ($3.9 million), and 19 percent ahead of Age of Adaline ($4.96 million). Early weekend projections around $16 million stand close to pre-release forecasts.

The Nun experienced a sharp 73 percent decline from last Friday to $5.9 million yesterday, standing at $72.8 million in all through eight days domestically. While a steep drop was expected, performance will need to rebound over the weekend in order to have a shot at $20 million this weekend.

White Boy Rick earned a solid debut of $3.475 million, including Thursday. That’s 14 percent ahead of Snowden‘s $3.05 million opening day two years ago. Sony, distributing for Studio 8, projects a $9.275 million opening weekend — generally in line with pre-release expectations.

Crazy Rich Asians capped the top five and added $2.53 million to its excellent haul, which now stands at $143.4 million domestically.

Meanwhile, Unbroken: Path to Redemption opened to $820K yesterday as it eyes a debut frame north of $2 million.

Early weekend estimates are below, to be followed by complete studio estimates on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, SEP. 14 – SUN, SEP. 16

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Predator $26,000,000 4,037 $6,440 $26,000,000 1 Fox
2 The Nun $18,500,000 -66% 3,876 0 $4,773 $85,376,325 2 Warner Bros.
3 A Simple Favor $16,000,000 3,102 $5,158 $16,000,000 1 Lionsgate
4 White Boy Rick $9,275,000 2,504 $3,704 $9,275,000 1 Sony / Studio 8
5 Crazy Rich Asians $8,700,000 -34% 3,385 -480 $2,570 $149,551,904 5 Warner Bros.
6 Peppermint $6,000,000 -55% 2,980 0 $2,013 $24,175,805 2 STX Entertainment
7 The Meg $4,300,000 -29% 2,851 -660 $1,508 $137,582,190 6 Warner Bros.
8 Searching $3,300,000 -28% 2,009 0 $1,643 $19,721,103 4 Sony Pictures
9 Mission: Impossible – Fallout $2,400,000 -38% 1,761 -573 $1,363 $216,220,337 8 Paramount
10 Disney’s Christopher Robin $2,200,000 -35% 1,902 -616 $1,157 $95,193,487 7 Disney
11 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $2,200,000 1,620 $1,358 $2,200,000 1 Pure Flix
12 Operation Finale $1,300,000 -55% 1,472 -346 $883 $16,446,305 3 MGM
13 Alpha $1,200,000 -52% 1,534 -987 $782 $34,541,017 5 Sony / Columbia
14 God Bless the Broken Road $530,000 -62% 1,201 -71 $441 $2,500,233 2 Freestyle Releasing

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 BlacKkKlansman $1,300,000 -50% 942 -605 $1,380 $45,950,950 6 Focus Features
2 Incredibles 2 $900,000 -33% 710 -736 $1,268 $605,769,025 14 Disney
3 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $850,000 -24% 673 -339 $1,263 $165,356,099 12 Sony / Columbia
4 Ant-Man and the Wasp $470,000 -24% 356 -192 $1,320 $215,487,791 11 Disney
5 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again $390,000 -34% 455 -159 $857 $119,765,935 9 Universal Pictures
6 Ya Veremos $350,000 -54% 254 -115 $1,378 $3,872,295 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
7 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $320,000 -26% 320 -259 $1,000 $416,320,080 13 Universal
8 Mile 22 $220,000 -82% 413 -1389 $533 $35,483,490 5 STX Entertainment
9 The Happytime Murders $140,000 -87% 310 -1529 $452 $20,599,597 4 STX Entertainment
10 The Spy Who Dumped Me $75,000 -29% 157 -50 $478 $33,448,073 7 Lionsgate
11 A.X.L. $33,000 -89% 110 -445 $300 $6,355,230 4 Global Road Entertainment
12 Kin (2018) $32,000 -96% 116 -2025 $276 $5,669,699 3 Lionsgate / Summit

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $17,000 -30% 40 -22 $425 $213,766,754 17 Disney
2 Beautifully Broken $4,000 -80% 12 -40 $333 $1,183,847 4 ArtAffects Entertainment

===

Friday Report: Fox and Shane Black’s The Predator registered $2.5 million from Thursday night’s opening shows, which began at 7pm. That’s a bit lower than once expected with the likelihood that fans would be driving the lion’s share of business; however, it still leaves room for the film to pick up over the weekend with healthy matinee appeal and 1,000 combined PLF screens (400 in IMAX) as part of the fifth widest location count ever for an R-rated release (4,037).

Thursday night’s take registered:

  • 37.5 percent below Blade Runner 2049 ($4.0 million)
  • 26.5 percent below Kingsman: The Golden Circle ($3.4 million)
  • 40.5 percent below Alien: Covenant ($4.2 million)

Lionsgate’s A Simple Favor got off to an encouraging start with $900K from 2,400 locations last night. Positive reviews may continue to boost its outlook over the weekend, but here’s how it stacks up to similar adaptations so far:

  • 25 percent behind Red Sparrow ($1.2 million)
  • Even with Annihilation ($900K)
  • 27 percent behind The Girl on the Train ($1.23 million)

Meanwhile, White Boy Rick earned $575K from 2,176 locations last night. Comps are a bit more thin with that film, but it did register 47 percent higher than Snowden‘s $390K start two Septembers ago.

On the holdover front, The Nun now stands at $66.9 million through its first full week of play after a $2.21 million estimated Thursday take.

More updates throughout the weekend…

Shawn Robbins

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    tommy tune September 15, 2018

    PEPPERMINT??? Your Top 10 is missing something

    Reply

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