Weekend Estimates: ‘Grinch’ Steals First-Day Christmas Pic Record, Eyes $65M+; ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ ($28M+) Doesn’t Stop Now

'Overlord' ($9M) Tops 'Spider's Web' ($8.5M)

Saturday Update: There’s an early holiday present for Universal this morning as Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch bowed to $18.67 million on Friday, including Thursday night’s early shows, setting a new opening day record for Christmas films (besting the 2000 live-action Grinch‘s $15.64 million) and scoring the second biggest opening day for an animated film in November (trailing only The Incredibles‘ $20.5 million in 2004).

Early projections vary this morning, but appear to be on par with our pre-release expectations for a weekend in the upper $60 million range and still having an outside shot at besting Incredibles‘ standing November animation record of $70.47 million. Universal itself is expecting around $67 million as of today’s update, but if it follows the post-Thursday trajectory of Big Hero 6, a landing around $65 million would be more likely. Either way, this is a fantastic start for the film as it begins to settle into the lengthy holiday corridor that will attract families and kids through year’s end.

Easing 55 percent to $8.465 million yesterday, Bohemian Rhapsody withstood the loss of IMAX and PLF screens in respectable fashion thanks to positive audience reception. With $77.6 million domestically through eight days of play, its sophomore frame could net north of $28 million this weekend (Fox projects $29 million).

Debuting in third, Paramount and Bad Robot’s Overlord pulled $3.75 million on opening day. Weekend projections stand close to $9 million.

Capping the top four, The Girl In the Spider’s Web opened to $3.0 million with Sony projecting $8.5 million for the weekend, while Disney’s Nutcracker and the Four Realms added $2.373 million for an updated domestic total of $28.1 million. The latter’s sophomore weekend looks to hit around $9.5 million.

Early weekend estimates are below with updated studio numbers to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, NOV. 9 – SUN, NOV. 11

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $65,000,000 4,141 $15,697 $65,000,000 1 Universal
2 Bohemian Rhapsody $28,200,000 -45% 4,000 0 $7,050 $97,360,548 2 20th Century Fox
3 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $9,500,000 -53% 3,766 0 $2,523 $35,191,534 2 Walt Disney Pictures
4 Overlord $9,000,000 2,859 $3,148 $9,000,000 1 Paramount Pictures
5 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $8,300,000 2,929 $2,834 $8,300,000 1 Sony / Columbia
6 A Star is Born $7,900,000 -28% 2,848 -583 $2,774 $177,910,388 6 Warner Bros.
7 Nobody’s Fool $5,900,000 -57% 2,468 0 $2,391 $23,636,108 2 Paramount
8 Venom $4,800,000 -39% 2,351 -716 $2,042 $206,183,603 6 Sony / Columbia
9 Halloween (2018) $3,600,000 -67% 2,717 -1058 $1,325 $156,569,845 4 Universal Pictures
10 The Hate U Give $2,125,000 -37% 1,108 -399 $1,918 $26,760,883 6 20th Century Fox
11 Smallfoot $1,600,000 -59% 1,318 -684 $1,214 $80,401,553 7 Warner Bros.
12 Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween $900,000 -76% 1,519 -1309 $592 $45,880,844 5 Sony

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Can You Ever Forgive Me? $1,250,000 21% 391 211 $3,197 $3,384,977 4 Fox Searchlight
2 Night School $975,000 -51% 717 -554 $1,360 $75,971,745 7 Universal
3 First Man $875,000 -60% 815 -897 $1,074 $43,687,705 5 Universal
4 Hunter Killer $720,000 -80% 957 -1763 $752 $15,196,151 3 Lionsgate / Summit
5 The Old Man & The Gun $460,000 -55% 395 -370 $1,165 $10,220,835 7 Fox Searchlight
6 Indivisible $170,000 -78% 202 -540 $842 $170,000 3 Pure Flix
7 Incredibles 2 $150,000 -11% 140 -10 $1,071 $608,303,459 22 Disney
8 Disney’s Christopher Robin $70,000 -50% 122 -43 $574 $99,118,784 15 Disney
9 A Simple Favor $55,000 -16% 127 25 $433 $53,450,267 9 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Boy Erased $700,000 238% 77 72 $9,091 $973,164 2 Focus Features
2 A Private War $200,000 231% 38 34 $5,263 $282,443 2 Aviron Pictures
3 The Front Runner $42,000 4 $10,500 $62,199 1 Sony / Columbia

===

Friday Update: Universal reports that Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch came away with an estimated $2.2 million from last night’s first showings, which began at 6pm in around 3,200 locations. That figures comes in 29 percent higher than Zootopia‘s $1.7 million start in March 2016 and 57 percent higher than Big Hero 6 ($1.4 million) in early November 2014. With strong family business expected throughout the weekend, this represents an excellent start to the film’s run.

Paramount and Bad Robot’s Overlord grossed $900K from last night’s first shows in 2,330 theaters, more than doubling the $435K start of Hell Fest earlier this fall and matching the $900K start of Annihilation back in February.

Meanwhile, The Girl In the Spider’s Web posted a lukewarm $635K start from 2,620 locations beginning at 7pm last night. That figure stands 29 percent behind Annihilation and 47 percent behind Red Sparrow ($1.2 million).

As reported earlierBohemian Rhapsody is expected to easily top the latter two new releases for a second place showing this weekend.

Follow us throughout the weekend for continued updates.

Shawn Robbins

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    BigMem November 10, 2018

    9 mil for Overlord? TOO LOW! Try 11 mil after that strong opening day!

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    tommy tune November 10, 2018

    nobody’s fool is MIA???

    Reply
    • Avatar
      tommy tune November 10, 2018

      my bad — it’s in like magic ;p

      Reply

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