Weekend Estimates: ‘The Upside’ ($19M) Surprises, Tops ‘Aquaman’; ‘A Dog’s Way Home’ Eyes $11M+; ‘On the Basis of Sex’ ($6.5M) Bests ‘Replicas’ ($3M)
Saturday Update: Significantly over-performing against pre-release tracking, The Upside scored a strong $6.95 million opening day on Friday and is now positioned to dethrone Aquaman as the #1 film in the country for the weekend. As STX’s 25th release in studio history, such a finish would make it the first time one of their films has debuted at the top of the box office. The film bested Book Club‘s $4.8 million first day take by 45 percent and The Intern‘s $6.2 million by nearly 12 percent. Boxoffice projects a weekend finish close to $19 million.
Moving into second place, Aquaman added $4.56 million on Friday, down a sharper-than-expected 51 percent from last Friday. Domestically, the DC blockbuster has earned $275.2 million and appears headed for a fourth frame around $15.8 million. Overseas, the pic took in another $5.7 million yesterday, giving it $713.4 million internationally. The global total stands at $988.6 million through Friday and will cross the $1 billion benchmark sometime on Saturday.
Sony’s A Dog’s Way Home opened to $3.3 million on Friday, about 37 percent less than A Dog’s Purpose ($5.3 million) two years ago. The family-driven adaptation could see a strong multiple over the weekend. The studio projects an $11 million frame, while our internal projections are a bit more optimistic at $12 million. Barring major weekend jumps, the film seems to have slightly over-tracked compared to Dog’s Purpose, but still has a window for staying power.
Escape Room ($2.65 million) and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ($2.2 million) finished off the top five yesterday, followed by the wide expansion of On the Basis of Sex. That film pulled $2.14 million from 1,923 locations and could bring in around $6.5 million this weekend.
Meanwhile, Replicas took in $950K on opening day Friday — comparable to Hotel Artemis ($1.1 million) and The Hurricane Heist ($947K). Its weekend tally should land close to $3 million.
Early weekend estimates are below. Updated studio estimates will follow on Sunday.
Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JAN. 11 – SUN, JAN. 13
|1||The Upside||$19,000,000||—||3,080||—||$6,169||$19,000,000||1||STX Entertainment|
|3||A Dog’s Way Home||$12,000,000||—||3,090||—||$3,884||$12,000,000||1||Sony Pictures|
|4||Escape Room||$8,300,000||-54%||2,717||0||$3,055||$31,832,931||2||Sony Pictures|
|5||Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse||$7,500,000||-43%||3,029||-390||$2,476||$146,275,445||5||Sony / Columbia|
|6||On The Basis Of Sex||$6,500,000||304%||1,923||1811||$3,380||$10,831,847||3||Focus Features|
|7||Mary Poppins Returns||$6,000,000||-62%||3,253||-837||$1,844||$149,441,985||4||Disney|
|9||The Mule||$5,800,000||-36%||3,329||117||$1,742||$90,833,396||5||Warner Bros.|
|11||Bohemian Rhapsody||$3,100,000||31%||1,334||254||$2,324||$198,396,306||11||20th Century Fox|
|12||Replicas||$3,000,000||—||2,329||—||$1,288||$3,000,000||1||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
|13||If Beale Street Could Talk||$2,500,000||36%||1,018||683||$2,456||$7,799,425||5||Annapurna|
|14||Ralph Breaks the Internet||$1,600,000||-66%||1,554||-496||$1,030||$189,835,603||8||Disney|
|15||Holmes and Watson||$575,000||-83%||1,013||-1767||$568||$30,045,153||4||Sony Pictures|
|1||Green Book||$2,200,000||22%||742||176||$2,965||$38,660,706||9||Universal Pictures|
|2||The Favourite||$1,100,000||-42%||512||-259||$2,148||$21,473,182||8||Fox Searchlight|
|3||A Star is Born||$1,100,000||73%||394||126||$2,792||$203,556,149||15||Warner Bros.|
|4||Creed II||$275,000||-70%||355||-538||$775||$114,873,733||8||MGM / Warner Bros|
|5||The Nutcracker and the Four Realms||$31,000||-66%||110||-62||$282||$54,842,620||11||Walt Disney Pictures|
Friday Report: STX’s The Upside is out front early among the weekend’s new releases, taking in a healthy $1.1 million from 2,460 locations last night. That compares favorably with titles like Instant Family ($550K), Book Club ($625K), Game Night ($1.0 million), Kevin Hart: What Now? ($740K), and The Intern ($650K). The dramedy starring Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart expands to 3,080 locations today. If post-Thursday evening performance holds up in line with those titles, Upside is looking to over-perform studio expectations with a potential opening weekend in the mid-teen millions.
Sony’s A Dog’s Way Home also started off in positive fashion with $535K from 2,657 locations at 5pm last night. That’s 16 percent ahead of A Dog’s Purpose ($460K), whose first shows began at 6pm in 2,255 locations two years ago. A mid-teen millions weekend remains likely based on our current projections, north of the studio’s conservative expectations.
Meanwhile, Replicas bowed to $200K from 7pm onward at 1,630 locations last night. That’s comparable to Hotel Artemis ($271K from 1,800 locations).
At this time, Aquaman remains expected to win the weekend for a fourth straight frame — although Upside and Dog have outside shots if they over-perform our earlier forecasts starting today.
Follow Boxoffice for continued updates and the first full slate of weekend estimates on Saturday morning.