Weekend Forecast: ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ & ‘The First Purge’

The 20th chapter of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is set to kick off July as part of the tail end of Independence Day weekend. How will it fare in a competitive midsummer market? Our final analysis:

Ant-Man and the Wasp
Opening Weekend Range: $75 – 95 million

Mostly positive reviews and the MCU’s general goodwill are the driving forces heading into the final hours before release. Goodwill from the 2015 origin story will provide additional help, as will the desire by families for a lighter chapter in the Marvel mythology. Still, the franchise is at a unique crossroads coming off their first major cliffhanger in Avengers: Infinity War, which could hinder other fans’ interest in a story taking place prior to that pivotal film.

Social media tracking has been lighter than expected with Twitter activity trailing that of Doctor Strange, and even the first Ant-Man at times. Overall interest models are comparable to Strange and Solo: A Star Wars Story.

Beyond the numbers, two key factors could drive some over-performance: Marvel’s first title-headlining female superhero (Evangeline Lilly’s The Wasp) should draw significant interest, and recent trailer spots have hyped up the ending of this film while teasing where these characters might have been during the events of Infinity War. That could be enough to spur the curiosity of those on the fence about this sequel.

Ultimately, though, this isn’t a film expected nor required to open over the $100 million threshold that Marvel has become accustomed to, and even a debut around $75 million would represent a 31 percent increase from the first Ant-Man‘s $57.2 million debut three summers ago. It’s certainly possible to achieve more, but a debut on the conservative end of expectations would still qualify as a success for this one.

The studio’s official range entering the weekend is $70 – 85 million.

The First Purge
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 22 million (3-day)

As is expected of franchises on their fourth chapter (particularly of the horror/thriller variety), general models are pacing behind those of its recent predecessors. Still, this is a series that has made a habit of beating expectations and capturing some of the zeitgeist with its not-so-subtle social and cultural relevancy. With little out there for the target audience so far this summer, this one could continue that streak. The studio expects a five-day opening around $25 million.

Top 10 Comparisons

Boxoffice’s base line projection for this weekend’s top ten films stands at $185 million or more, representing around as much as a 7 percent decline from the same frame last year when Spider-Man: Homecoming launched to $117 million atop the post-Independence Day box office. That weekend’s top ten accounted for $198.3 million.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 8 % Change from Last Wknd
Ant-Man and the Wasp Disney / Marvel $82,000,000 $82,000,000 NEW
Incredibles 2 Disney / Pixar $27,300,000 $500,000,000 -41%
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal $27,200,000 $327,500,000 -55%
The First Purge Universal $19,000,000 $28,500,000 NEW
Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony / Columbia $8,600,000 $35,600,000 -55%
Uncle Drew Lionsgate / Summit $7,700,000 $30,800,000 -50%
Shawn Robbins

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Shellyman July 04, 2018

    Some reports are saying Ant-Man & The Wasp is outpacing Doctor Strange in pre-sales. I’ll say $86-$90 million+ opening weekend.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Mann July 04, 2018

      I also heard from somewhere that it is outpacing homecoming I’m calling a $100+ opening

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Pretending to be shocked July 05, 2018

    Ant-Man and the Wasp – $95M
    Incredibles 2 – $29M
    Fallen Kingdom – $24M

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Goat July 05, 2018

    Ant-Man and the Wasp – $95M
    Incredibles 2 – $29M
    Jurassic World: FK – $24M

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Iceman56 July 05, 2018

    Ant-Man and the Wasp should open to $105 plus million and finish with a lititle over $300 million, depending on legs and how it does against other films (Mission Impossible and Skyskraper).

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Ben July 05, 2018

    i expect a close to one hundred debut 95-105. similar to jurassiic world this franchise has a family audiience and they predicted 129 for JW2 and it ended up with 148. you use the same difference from the 82 projection and itll getyou a 94 opening but with better buzz around this i can see it hitting 100

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Michael Weeden July 05, 2018

    What math are you using for Jurassic World 2??? Predicting a 27.2 mil weekend for a 327.5 mil total??? It just made 8.6 mil Monday, 11.9 mil Tuesday and 11.5 mil Wednesday for a domestic cume of $297.7… in order to get to your math to fit that means that you expect it to take a massive dive to 2.6 mil on Thursday for a $300.3 mil cume and then $27.2 mil weekend for $327.5….

    I would argue that a $6-7 mil Friday would make more sense for a domestic total of 303.7-304.7… if it follows a similar weekend path as last weekend with day over day changes this would put it on track for a 31-37 mil weekend and a domestic cume of 334.7-341.7 domestic cume.

    If it does take the hit that box office is predicting it will close around $370 mil domestic. However if it continues to track as it has this past week and follows my projections I could see JW2 topping out around 410-430

    Ant-Man prediction: $87 mil
    Jurassic World Prediction: $34 mil
    Incredibles 2 prediction: $30 mil

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Friendly Neighborhood Candyman July 06, 2018

    I hope the Purge does $25 million

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Michael July 06, 2018

    Once again underestimating Jurassic World… in order for your prediction to be correct it would have had to have been at $300.3 mil after Thursday’s gross. It is actually at $304.75… I also expect the weekend will outpace predictions once again and come in around $34 mil for a $338.75 mil total. Domestic will finish above $400 mil.

    Ant-Man = $89 mil
    Jurassic World = $34 mil
    Incredibles 2 = $30 mil

    Reply

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