New Year’s Weekend Forecast: ‘Aquaman’ & ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ Look to Repeat as Top Two; ‘Holmes and Watson’ & ‘Vice’ Open

The final weekend of 2018 will see a number of strong holdovers as the Christmas-New Year’s corridor carries on, offering something for a variety of audiences. Holmes & Watson and Vice debuted in wide release on Christmas Day this past Tuesday and are included in the forecast below.

Note: Theater counts for Mary Queen of Scots and The Favourite were not available at this time of publishing. Expansions wide enough could help one or both titles make the top ten over the coming holiday weekend.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $160 million. That would represent a 8 percent decline from the same weekend last year when Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ruled the box office on New Year’s Eve weekend as part of an overall $173.3 million top ten frame.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 30 % Change from Last Wknd
Aquaman Warner Bros. $48,700,000 $185,700,000 -28%
Mary Poppins Returns Disney $26,200,000 $92,700,000 +11%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $19,000,000 $104,500,000 +14%
Bumblebee Paramount $17,900,000 $63,700,000 -17%
Holmes and Watson Sony / Columbia $11,000,000 $24,000,000 NEW
The Mule Warner Bros. $10,600,000 $59,400,000 +12%
Vice Annapurna $9,000,000 $19,400,000 NEW
Second Act STX $8,100,000 $22,900,000 +25%
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch Universal $5,100,000 $266,300,000 -40%
Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $4,000,000 $171,600,000 -15%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Shawn Robbins

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Wait A Minute Who Are You? December 27, 2018

    Glad to see Spiderverse crossing 100 million. Looking like it wasn’t going to for a bit

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Juan Manuel December 27, 2018

    Vice is doing pretty good for it’s first week. Let’s see how it hold up.
    Annapurna will need a lot of luck to avoid another loss, although Destroyer and If Beatle Street Could Talk are doing well in their limited release

    Nice to see Spiderverse holding up 🙂 I hope we can see more animated movies like Spiderverse

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    ramon carter December 27, 2018

    i feel sorry for bumblebee it got a bad release date going up against aquaman and spiderverse

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Delle December 27, 2018

      Don’t feel too sorry for it. Even though it’s going up against tough competition “Bumblebee” is going to definitely make it over $100 million domestic with no problem. It has great reviews and strong word of mouth, it’s going to leg it out to good numbers. Remember last year “The Greatest Showman” had a very soft opening going against TLJ and “Jumanji” and it ended up legging it out to very impressive numbers. Sometimes it’s not always how you start but how you finish.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        atlman December 27, 2018

        The problem is that $100 million is not enough. Because they didn’t seek tax credits and filmed in L.A. the reported budget is $132 million but the true budget is over $150 million. Meaning that they will need to make $450-$600 million to cover it depending on merchandising (toys), DVD sales, streaming revenue etc. They were clearly hoping for $200 million domestic from this movie.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jacen December 27, 2018

          But were they really expecting 200mil domestic? The franchise peaked domestically with number 2 and has dwindled since. Logic dictated that the next would be smaller, and I got the feeling from the trailers that they were pushing it as a smaller, more intimate character adventure (or as much character as you can get from a borrowed-from-Japan toy franchise film about sentient machine warriors). Pro was estimating a final total of 150mil domestic, if I remember right, and the sense I got elsewhere was that the international take would be three times that. This would be a decent amount for an attempt at a soft reboot of the series, which is what I thought they were going for.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      atlman December 27, 2018

      No it didn’t. Last year The Last Jedi made $620 million, Jumanji 3 made $400 million and the Greatest Showman made $175 million competing directly against each other. Even Ferdinand made $84 million. This was with Thor 3 getting $315 million, Coco getting $209 million and Wonder, Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express all beating $100 million the prior month, plus Bad Mons 2 getting $70 million. Meanwhile October was wide open and Blade Runner 2 still flopped

      This whole “competition” thing doesn’t fly and last winter proved it. If people want to see a movie they will see it. The problem is that a Transformers movie starring Bumblebee – when Optimus Prime is the main and driving character even if he isn’t necessarily the most popular one – wasn’t compelling. Take The Avengers: Iron Man is the most popular – and there are plenty who prefer Thor and Black Widow – but Captain America is the leader and main plot driver. Add to that it was made an 80s period piece and it had a young female star who isn’t an A-lister like Jennifer Lawrence back in the day … the core audience for a film about sentient robot battles is young male geeks and nerds who are into machines and gadgets, yet they insist on making yet another play for the “Hunger Games/Insurgent/Twilight” crowd just like two other recent bombs “Mortal Engines” and “The Darkest Minds.”

      It is as if Hollywood is determined to not acknowledge who and what makes certain film genres popular and profitable.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        BDTrooper December 29, 2018

        Last year, The Greatest Showman was complete counter-programming to Jedi and Jumanji – there was probably as little crossover audience as possible. Bumblebee, on the other hand, is competing against other genre pics in Aquaman and Spidey, with tremendous crossover. Though, with a female lead and more character-driven story, Bumblebee no doubt was looking to get a decent female audience too (though Aquaman I’m sure was looking for Momoa to bring in a female crowd as well.) So, bottom line, big difference. Ultimately, though, Bumblebee, with terrific reviews and word of mouth, looks to finish with some pretty good numbers, especially when it adds in China.

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    Carey December 27, 2018

    Loved, loved Mary Poppins Returns. Brought back sweet memories of me being a child watching the original. I couldn’t quit smiling.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Multiplex37 December 27, 2018

    Sorry so late. I know many of you were waiting for words of wisdom and those words are this…if you think Holmes & Watson is making $11mm this weekend, Big Mem says you cray-cray. Happy New Year to you all! See you in 2019…every. single. Wednesday!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen December 27, 2018

      Speaking of crazy, I’m surprised that clown The Truth isn’t over here from Deadline screaming that the MPR numbers are wrong (because what Pro has here suggests that it will make at least 150mil by the end of its run–unless it gets significant Academy love, in which case a final of over 200mil is likely).

      But, yeah, 11mil seems high for Holmes, which has a D+ Cinemascore. I know it’s the holidays and everything, but that hasn’t helped Mortal Engines or Marwen. So maybe 5mil for the weekend?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        DC Rich December 28, 2018

        That site has really deteriorated over the last 13 months. I’m referring to the posts of course. They even have two Mike’s arguing back and forth. I think MPR is going over 200m but will know more after the 3rd/4th weekend. That will show if it’s holding like TGS did last year. So far its daily totals are double TGS except the Christmas and Christmas Eve which fell on different days. I see it playing pretty good through the end of January. Just an opinion.

        Reply
  6. Avatar
    Gene December 31, 2018

    Mary Poppins Returns the best picture of the year. Emily Blunt best actress by far, A wonderful movie!!!!

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *