Weekend Forecast: ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Eyes Big Third Frame; ‘Life of the Party’ & ‘Breaking In’ Hope for Mother’s Day Crowds

Mother’s Day weekend will see the release of two films targeted directly at mothers and daughters, all while Marvel’s blockbuster behemoth is set to easily lead the way again in its third frame.

In general, most holdovers should experience fairly soft drops — particularly those with predominantly male-driven audiences — while Mother’s Day will result in stronger than usual Sunday business for select titles.

Avengers: Infinity War
Third Weekend Range: $52 – 62 million

In the midst of an historic global box office run, and coming off the second biggest sophomore weekend ever, Infinity War now chases one of the biggest third weekends in North American history. Black Panther claimed the third best of those with $66.3 million less than three months ago, while 2012’s first Avengers film sits at fourth place all-time with $55.6 million. The latest Avengers get together may fall short of T’Challa’s threshold, but models currently suggest the film has a fair shot at topping the latter of those previous Marvel films.

Breaking In
Opening Weekend Range: $13.5 – 18.5 million

Trends are a bit scattered for this thriller’s potential, but we expect the Mother’s Day weekend release to aid upfront appeal in some measure. Twitter metrics are comparable to those of 2016’s When the Bough Breaks ($14.2 million opening weekend), although Facebook growth is significantly lower than that film’s. Given the shifting of Facebook audiences to older demographics, we’re leaning slightly toward the higher of expectations this weekend.

Life of the Party
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 22 million

Melissa McCarthy fans are expected to turn out for her latest comedy as social media metrics register far ahead of those of last year’s Snatched, which starred Amy Schumer and similarly opened over Mother’s Day weekend. Facebook growth is behind McCarthy’s own Tammy, but again, the holiday weekend’s direct relevance to this picture’s target audience could easily skew comparisons in that regard.

Top 10 Comparisons

Boxoffice currently projects this weekend’s top ten films will generate $120 million or more, which would represent just a 3 percent decline from the same period last year when Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 earned a $65.3 million second weekend ahead of new releases Snatched ($19.5 million), King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($15.4 million), and Lowriders ($2.4 million) as part of an overall $124.5 million frame.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 13 % Change from Last Wknd
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $58,500,000 $544,100,000 -49%
Life of the Party Warner Bros. / New Line $21,000,000 $21,000,000 NEW
Breaking In Universal $15,000,000 $15,000,000 NEW
Overboard Pantelion $7,200,000 $26,100,000 -51%
A Quiet Place Paramount $6,000,000 $169,000,000 -23%
I Feel Pretty STX $3,800,000 $43,800,000 -24%
Rampage Warner Bros. / New Line $3,000,000 $89,300,000 -34%
Tully Focus Features $2,400,000 $7,000,000 -27%
Black Panther Disney / Marvel $2,100,000 $696,300,000 -34%
Blockers Universal $1,200,000 $58,200,000 -30%
Shawn Robbins

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS May 09, 2018

    I think Infinity War will make over $60M this weekend.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fred May 09, 2018

      Maybe, i’m thinking it makes between $57-$62 million this weekend.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        ManOfBronze May 10, 2018

        if it wasnt such an underwhelming film it would make more than 60 million, but I say about 50 – 55.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Fred May 10, 2018

          You could be right about the weekend, i was just thinking a little higher and giving IW benefit of the doubt. If it does make $50-$55M this weeekend like you’re suggesting, reaching $700M domestic will most definitely be off the table.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Ben May 10, 2018

            Agreed, if it’s already at 50 there’s no way it can pull atleast another 160 million especially with Deadpool and solo the next two weeks

        • Avatar
          TimP May 10, 2018

          Underwhelming? Wtf are you on!? Do NOT understand some people….

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Ed May 10, 2018

          I will say no

          Reply
  2. Avatar
    DeadPool May 09, 2018

    Boooo. I hope it doesn’t reach 50 mil.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Farooq May 10, 2018

    it is strange that Black Panther may end with higher box office in US than Avengers Infinity Wars though the latter is made on a much bigger scale

    Reply

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