Weekend Forecast: Will ‘Black Panther’ Hit Nine Digits Again Versus ‘Annihilation’ & ‘Game Night’? (Updated)

UPDATE: The chart below previously contained incorrect total gross projections that accidentally excluded Monday grosses. These have been corrected. We apologize for the confusion.

===

Following last weekend’s historic debut from Black Panther, no one envies the task ahead for a trio of new releases set to close out the final weekend of February.  Our forecast follows this brief rundown of what to expect:

PROS:

  • Black Panther has captured a number of records in its first five days (and counting), not the least of which was the fifth biggest three-day opening weekend of all-time at $202 million. Strong word of mouth and the film’s continued momentum as a true zeitgeist player could very well help it score one of the top four sophomore weekends ever. To do that, it would need to top last year’s Beauty and the Beast ($90.4 million), while second and third places (Jurassic World‘s $106.6 million and The Avengers‘ $103 million, respectively) could also be up for grabs. To be fair, however, even strongly received films in the Marvel universe have generated slightly larger-than-expected second weekend declines (Civil War being a prime example), so a weekend closer to the $85 million range is reasonably possible and would still represent a February record take for a holdover.
  • Game Night offers a counter-programmer for adult date night audiences with Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams leading the comedy that could appeal well to those who have already checked out the Marvel blockbuster. Reviews are very encouraging with an 85 percent Rotten Tomatoes score as of this report. Our target range for the weekend stands between $14 million and $20 million.
  • Annihilation will similarly hope to attract adult audiences over the weekend with Natalie Portman in the lead. The key advantage will be fans of the source novel and filmmaker Alex Garland in his follow-up to Ex Machina. Reviews are likewise healthy with a 90 percent score thus far. Our target range for the weekend has slightly declined to between $9 million and $13 million.
  • Every Day marks the first wide release from Orion Pictures in nearly 21 years, making forecasts and tracking more challenging with a limited base of comparison points. Early expectations suggest the film is trending in line with the recent Forever My Girl, as well as The Space Between Us and Before I Fall. (UPDATE: Orion Pictures notes that the film’s budget is a slim $5 million, making anything around or north of $3 million this weekend a positive result for the film.)

CONS:

  • In general, all three wide releases could suffer to some extent from the Black Panther spillover effect. Casual audiences and stragglers to the comic book phenom — in addition to repeat viewers and families — will still be out in full force this weekend. Game Night should suffer the least from this effect since Annihilation could be leaning more heavily on the adult male crowd, although both films have displayed underwhelming social media buzz up to this point.

Top 10 Comparisons

We’re currently forecasting this weekend’s top ten films will net around $163.9 million. That would come in 58 percent ahead of the same weekend last year, which rang up $103.9 million as Get Out debuted to instant-hit status with a $33.4 million opening weekend.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 25 % Change from Last Wknd
Black Panther Disney / Marvel $100,700,000 $393,650,000 -50%
Game Night Warner Bros. / New Line $16,000,000 $16,000,000 NEW
Peter Rabbit Sony / Columbia $11,000,000 $69,200,000 -37%
Annihilation Paramount $9,800,000 $9,800,000 NEW
Fifty Shades Freed Universal $6,700,000 $89,300,000 -61%
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia $6,100,000 $388,100,000 -23%
The 15:17 to Paris Warner Bros. $4,500,000 $33,300,000 -41%
The Greatest Showman Fox $4,100,000 $161,600,000 -18%
Every Day Orion Pictures $3,000,000 $3,000,000 NEW
Early Man Lionsgate $2,000,000 $7,000,000 -36%
Shawn Robbins

16 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Abdul February 21, 2018

    The projected total for Black Panther is incorrect. It will have accumulated at least $375 million by Sunday night.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Ben February 21, 2018

    I expect a high forty’s drop considering the white hot buzz everything else looks about right. Also it would be interesting to see if Jumanji hits 400 million/1 billion dollars

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Brad February 21, 2018

    It says Black Panther’s total will be $306 through Sunday. Pretty sure that is a typo as it was at $263 after Tuesday.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Fred February 21, 2018

      I’m pretty the site meant to say $406 million.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Shawn Robbins February 21, 2018

      That was a typo on our part. Thanks for pointing it out! It’s been corrected to the intended figure in the chart.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Kevin February 22, 2018

        Really? It’s at $263 right now. If you have two more day before the weekend, and are then going to add another $100m, how is $353m the correct number?

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Andrew February 22, 2018

        I still think you’re well off; it’s going to clear $400m by Sunday for sure.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Stevenson February 22, 2018

        Your correction is still wrong lol.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Stevenson February 22, 2018

        Actually I think every single one of your movies on the Projected Domestic total through the weekend is wrong. You probably need to redo it if you want to be somewhat correct.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Val February 22, 2018

        It’s at $277,701,098 as of Wednesday. Lets say it makes 12.5mil Thursday, and thus goes to 290mil.

        If you expect a 100.7mil weekend, how are you expecting 353,500,000? Why not 390mil+?

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    Shellyman February 21, 2018

    Black Panther is already at $263 million at the domestic B.O. I’m sure by the end of the weekend, it will make WAY more than $306 million. I’m also sure the drop will be smaller this weekend. I’m seeing around 45% due to strong word of mouth.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Orlando February 21, 2018

    This prediction Is close to what I think BP will get. I see Black Panther making between $100-$110 million this weekend. Should it indeed hit triple digits this weekend, that should lead the movie to reaching $600 million domestic if not more by the end of it’s box office run.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Jon February 21, 2018

    How is Black Panther going to be at 353 mil through Sunday when it is already at 263 through Tuesday? Even if it made ZERO dollars the next two days 263 + your weekend estimate of 100 mil is still above your projected total through Sunday. It should be somewhere around 400 mil.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Ben February 22, 2018

    I would have never imagined Black Panther could be as more successful than Captain America or Thor movies. And no way on Earth I thought Black Panther would be more popular than Ironman ? Actually, the movie is competing with the likes of Avengers and Star Wars movies ? This is insane ! A potential 600 million run domestically ? What !!!

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Danilo February 22, 2018

    BP already has 263 million through tuesday, in two more days it will make at least 20 million, so if it makes 100 million this weekend it will make way more than 353 million.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Delfra February 22, 2018

    Shawn you need to fix your mistake again, like Kevin pointed out how can you have “Black Panther” at $353 million after this upcoming weekend when you’re predicting the film to make $100 million this weekend and it’s likely to be at $290 million plus going into the weekend? I would think the film’s domestic numbers are likely to be around$390-$400 million domestic after this weekend. It would be nice if you could correct this mistake.

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *