Weekend Forecast: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ ‘The Nutcracker and the Four Realms,’ & ‘Nobody’s Fool’

What’s come to be known as holiday movie season officially begins this weekend with a trio of new releases looking to ignite the post-Halloween weekend and lead into a November slate that offers a lot of promise for moviegoers and exhibitors.

Poised to lead the way will be Fox’s Bohemian Rhapsody, the long awaited biopic featuring Rami Malek as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury. Social media activity has been impressive leading up to release, with Facebook activity far outpacing that of A Star Is Born on a consistent basis. Twitter trends are highly encouraging as well, although not quite on par with ASIB or Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again during their pre-release windows.

Bohemian‘s traditional tracking tips the scale back in Rhapsody‘s favor with significantly higher interest among men under 25 and comparable interest levels among other demographics, while our Trailer Impact surveys indicate higher Average Positive Interest and Recall scores than ASIB. With a brief IMAX run to help boost opening weekend revenue, we suspect the film is in position to beat Fox’s $35 million projection and approach a $40 million+ frame, although it’s worth noting that modest reviews could be a factor to watch for.

Disney returns to the market with The Nutcracker and the Four Realms this weekend after taking most of the fall season off from new releases. The film is hoping to get a jump start on Christmastime with a notable ensemble cast as part of a recognizable brand. Social media and traditional tracking have generally positioned the film behind the pace of recent live action Disney flicks like A Wrinkle In Time and Christopher Robin, pacing more closely to The BFG.

The studio projects a Nutcracker debut in the low-to-mid $20 million range, although we can’t rule out a debut in the upper teen million range with the possibility that the film will be back-loaded due to the holiday corridor ahead in November and December. Growing interest among families for next week’s The Grinch could also pull some viewers away from Nutcracker this weekend.

Meanwhile, Paramount is hoping to capitalize on Tiffany Haddish’s continued rise to stardom with Nobody’s FoolFresh off the success of Night SchoolUncle Drew, and last year’s Girls Trip, her fans — as well as the Tyler Perry faithful — should help the comedy counter-program this weekend. Twitter activity is comparable to Perry’s most recent producing effort earlier this year (Acrimony), with traditional tracking in the same realm as November 2016’s Almost Christmas. The studio expects a mid-to-high teen million debut.

Top 10 v. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $120 million. That would represent a 27 percent decline from the same frame last year when Thor: Ragnarok smashed its way to $122.7 million on opening weekend, driving an overall $164.6 million top ten in tandem with the debut of A Bad Moms Christmas.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 4 % Change from Last Wknd
Bohemian Rhapsody Fox $40,700,000 $40,700,000 NEW
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Disney $19,500,000 $19,500,000 NEW
Halloween (2018) Universal $15,800,000 $155,200,000 -50%
Nobody’s Fool Paramount $14,500,000 $14,500,000 NEW
A Star Is Born Warner Bros. $9,500,000 $164,200,000 -32%

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Alex Edghill contributed to research for this report

Shawn Robbins

6 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Multiplex37 October 31, 2018

    Not sure what to think of Bohemian or Nutcracker. Feels like both could over or underperform. Big Mem takes the over on Nutcracker and the under on Freddie. 24, 38.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      TTVOMJ November 01, 2018

      SMU activity suggests older people whose only interaction with social media is fb and who dont read movie critics might push BM over 40m…possibly even 50+…Queen meant alot to many..and 80’s nostalgia + “singalongs” are critic proof… on the other hand…nutcracker will unfortunately get shuffled in post halloween/pre holiday market and might not reach 19m…sad, considering disney was 1 million away with a perfect 100mil release window of 2018(christopher robin is around 99mil as of this writing), before this movie:(

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Jacen October 31, 2018

    I expect Nutcracker to debut in the teens. Disney put together a decent trailer that shows they spent some money to make something visually different from previous Nutcracker films, but the history of those films has been consistent for decades: financially disastrous artistic train wrecks. It’s possible Disney avoids this, and critical reaction will tell us. However, if this turns out to be more of the same, expect this movie to not only open low, but to disappear quickly thanks to its lack of quality and the upcoming competition.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Brian October 31, 2018

      Ive seen nutcracker last night. A wrinkle in time is better in terms of visuals but still really in 4D nonetheless. Have not seen the other nutcracker movies but the story is extremely predictable and acting feels atrocious for me.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      RussVB November 01, 2018

      It’ll be funny if the box office behemoth that is modern Disney fails in the one area where they’ve excelled forever … selling tripe to young ladies.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    TTVOMJ November 01, 2018

    SMU activity suggests older people whose only interaction with social media is fb and who dont read movie critics might push BM over 40m…possibly even 50+…Queen meant alot to many..and 80’s nostalgia + “singalongs” are critic proof… on the other hand…nutcracker will unfortunately get shuffled in post halloween/pre holiday market and might not reach 19m…sad, considering disney was 1 million away from a perfect 100mil release window of 2018(christopher robin is around 99mil as of this writing), before this movie:(

    Reply

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