Weekend Forecast: Can ‘A Wrinkle In Time’ Dethrone ‘Black Panther’?

'Strangers: Prey at Night' Likely to Lead 'The Hurricane Heist' and 'Gringo' Among Non-Major Studio Openers

This weekend will see the wide release of four new films, only one of which is expected to challenge the reigning Black Panther for the box office crown as Disney takes on Disney.

A Wrinkle In Time marks the latest live action adaptation/reimagined work from Disney following their successful efforts with films like Beauty and the BeastThe Jungle BookOz the Great and PowerfulMaleficent, and Cinderella, among others past and forthcoming. Acclaimed filmmaker Ava DuVernay (Selma) and star Oprah Winfrey give the movie an added pedigree of talent — in addition to stars Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, Zach Galifiankis, Chris Pine, and others.

Unfortunately, social media buzz has stalled in recent weeks as much of the film’s target audience remains enamored by Black Panther and its incredible word of mouth. Traditional tracking has also proven more modest than once expected. Relative to past Disney releases, Wrinkle is trending more in line with the likes of Tomorrowland and Pete’s Dragon than the aforementioned adaptations, while early reviews from critics have been mixed at 45 percent on Rotten Tomatoes (as of this publishing). As such, we currently expect the film to underperform against previously bullish forecasts and bow in second place this weekend behind Panther. The studio is expecting around $35 million.

Strangers: Prey at Night isn’t likely to surprise in the way many horror films have in recent years, but it has nonetheless shown stronger signs of life than expected several months ago thanks to a lack of horror releases in the early months of 2018. It has a reasonable shot at the top three this weekend if it can slightly overperform current forecasting models. Distributor Aviron expects a debut in the vicinity of high single digit millions, lining up with recent forecasts.

Meanwhile, The Hurricane Heist and Gringo are posting metrics similar to those of The Belko Experiment and Free Fire. While Entertainment Studios expects around an $8 million debut for the former of the two, our current models suggest a launch close to $5 million is more likely. STX hasn’t commented to Boxoffice on Gringo‘s prospects, but we currently expect a debut in the low single digit millions.

Top 10 Comparisons

This weekend’s top ten will again pale in comparison to the same frame last year when Kong: Skull Island crushed expectations with a $61 million opening weekend, part of an overall $149.4 million top ten cume. Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten will tally around $120.5 million, marking a 19 percent decline from that same three-day period in 2017.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 11 % Change from Last Wknd
Black Panther Disney / Marvel $39,300,000 $560,000,000 -41%
A Wrinkle In Time Disney $33,500,000 $33,500,000 NEW
Red Sparrow Fox $8,300,000 $31,300,000 -51%
Strangers: Prey at Night Aviron $8,000,000 $8,000,000 NEW
Game Night Warner Bros. / New Line $7,000,000 $44,000,000 -33%
Peter Rabbit Sony / Columbia $6,800,000 $93,300,000 -32%
Death Wish MGM $6,100,000 $23,300,000 -53%
The Hurricane Heist Entertainment Studios $5,000,000 $5,000,000 NEW
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia $3,300,000 $397,800,000 -25%
Gringo STX $3,200,000 $3,200,000 NEW
Boxoffice Staff

14 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Shellyman March 07, 2018

    The king is going to be number #1 once again on its fourth weekend!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen March 07, 2018

      And if Tomb Raider implodes next weekend–not likely, but a small possibility–BP could be looking at 5 weeks at the top.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Delfra March 07, 2018

        I was thinking the same thing, projections for “Tomb Raider” are between $25-$30 million and I think Black Panther can beat that even in it’s 5th weekend. I can see BP easily making between $28-$33 million in it’s fifth weekend.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Orlando March 07, 2018

    I think you’re weekend prediction for Black Panther is a little low, but you have been low on it every single weekend so far lol. I definitely see BP making somewhere between $40-$48 million this weekend, you can book that down as a guarantee.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    BL March 07, 2018

    Let’s say hypothetically black panther dips another 41 percent and makes 39 this weekend, Tomb Raider would be it’s next hurdle which BOP currently pegs around 28 million opening. With likely (hopefully not) video game movie esc bad buzz I would bring that down a tad to 20-25 million. Black Panther, if it were to take another 41 percent drop would have a fifth weekend at 23 million which means it will be a tight tight race to see if T’Challa can squeeze past Lara Croft for the first fifth number one weekend in a row since the Sixth sense

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Charles March 07, 2018

      Avatar was #1 for seven weeks

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jordan March 07, 2018

        What does Avatar have to do with this comment? Titanic had 15 weekends at #1, but that’s not the point. OP merely said Black Panther could possibly have the first 5th number one weekend in a row since The Sixth Sense in ’99.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Tower March 08, 2018

          Because it wouldn’t be since 99, it would be since 2009 when Avatar did this. Titanic is irrelevant since it came out before The Sixth Sense.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          RussVB March 08, 2018

          Avatar was number 1 for 7 weekends in a row in 2009/10 .
          You know, 10 years after the Sixth Sense.
          So you are diss’ing Charles comment why, exactly?

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Kevin March 08, 2018

          Well, it could be that Avatar might have been released after Sixth Sense? I could be wrong.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Peter March 08, 2018

            Exactly. If Black Panther is #1 in its fifth weekend, it will NOT be the first time that has happened since The Sixth Sense.

  4. Avatar
    DangerS March 07, 2018

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Wrinkle ends up opening with less than $30M and Black Panther makes over $40M.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    jake foley March 08, 2018

    Wrinkle is 100% below 30m wknd.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Chris stone March 08, 2018

    I think black panther will sore too number 1 again. I don’t wanna judge before seeing it. But I saw the trailer for a wrinkle in time and I still don’t know what it’s gonna be about. I am taking my friend too see black panther for the second time. This time in 3D. Now one last note I agree movies that are based on video games have sucked badly. And I am speaking about ninja assassin. And I wasn’t crazy about the first 2 tomb raiders but I am hoping new cast new story. But for this week black panther all the way

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *