Weekend Forecast: ‘Captain America: Civil War’
The 2016 summer box office season officially kicks off this weekend with the 13th chapter of Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. Our analysis:
Captain America: Civil War
Disney / Marvel
- The sheer amount of success and strong reception enjoyed by most Marvel films is an automatic selling point here.
- Based in part on the very popular Civil War comic story line, fans have been eagerly awaiting the Tony Stark vs. Steve Rogers showdown for years.
- Social media activity is through the roof, currently trending on par with or ahead of all other MCU titles — Age of Ultron included — at the same point before release on both Twitter and Facebook.
- Stellar reviews and early word of mouth have perfectly complemented another strong marketing campaign from the studio.
- In terms of being viewed as a “sequel” to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, that film’s excellent reception should only serve as goodwill for this entry.
- The addition of Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark/Iron Man to this film’s cast — along with the ensemble of characters itself — should help the film feel and perform more like an Avengers sequel than a standalone character entry.
- The aid of Mother’s Day falling on this Sunday should be an additional boost to ticket sales.
- Fandango reported earlier this week that the film surpassed Batman v Superman, Age of Ultron, and The Dark Knight Rises as the company’s top pre-selling superhero movie ever.
- Disney-at-large is currently riding an unprecedented wave of commercial and creative success, and this looks to fall in line with that trend.
- There are practically no downsides with Civil War — or Disney or Marvel right now, for that matter. This is easily the safest box office bet to hit the market since Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Top 10 Forecast
Boxoffice is projecting this weekend’s top ten films will accumulate around $264.2 million. That would represent a 121 percent increase from the same weekend last year ($119.7 million), which was led by the sophomore weekend of Age of Ultron.
Check out our complete weekend forecast below.
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total Through
Sunday, May 8
|Captain America: Civil War||Disney||$214,000,000||$214,000,000|
|The Jungle Book (2016)||Disney||$22,000,000||$285,200,000|
|Mother’s Day (2016)||Open Road||$6,500,000||$18,000,000|
|The Huntsman: Winter’s War||Universal||$4,500,000||$41,300,000|
|Keanu||Warner Bros. / New Line||$4,200,000||$16,300,000|
|Barbershop: The Next Cut||Warner Bros. / New Line||$2,900,000||$49,000,000|
|Ratchet & Clank||Focus / Gramercy||$2,300,000||$7,900,000|
|Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice||Warner Bros.||$1,600,000||$327,800,000|
Shawn Robbins, Daniel Garris, and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.