Weekend Forecast: ‘Captain America: Civil War’

The 2016 summer box office season officially kicks off this weekend with the 13th chapter of Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. Our analysis:

Captain America: Civil War
Disney / Marvel

PROS:

  • The sheer amount of success and strong reception enjoyed by most Marvel films is an automatic selling point here.
  • Based in part on the very popular Civil War comic story line, fans have been eagerly awaiting the Tony Stark vs. Steve Rogers showdown for years.
  • Social media activity is through the roof, currently trending on par with or ahead of all other MCU titles — Age of Ultron included — at the same point before release on both Twitter and Facebook.
  • Stellar reviews and early word of mouth have perfectly complemented another strong marketing campaign from the studio.
  • In terms of being viewed as a “sequel” to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, that film’s excellent reception should only serve as goodwill for this entry.
  • The addition of Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark/Iron Man to this film’s cast — along with the ensemble of characters itself — should help the film feel and perform more like an Avengers sequel than a standalone character entry.
  • The aid of Mother’s Day falling on this Sunday should be an additional boost to ticket sales.
  • Fandango reported earlier this week that the film surpassed Batman v SupermanAge of Ultron, and The Dark Knight Rises as the company’s top pre-selling superhero movie ever.
  • Disney-at-large is currently riding an unprecedented wave of commercial and creative success, and this looks to fall in line with that trend.

CONS:

  • There are practically no downsides with Civil War — or Disney or Marvel right now, for that matter. This is easily the safest box office bet to hit the market since Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Top 10 Forecast

Boxoffice is projecting this weekend’s top ten films will accumulate around $264.2 million. That would represent a 121 percent increase from the same weekend last year ($119.7 million), which was led by the sophomore weekend of Age of Ultron.

Check out our complete weekend forecast below.

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total Through
Sunday, May 8
Captain America: Civil War Disney $214,000,000 $214,000,000
The Jungle Book (2016) Disney $22,000,000 $285,200,000
Mother’s Day (2016) Open Road $6,500,000 $18,000,000
The Huntsman: Winter’s War Universal $4,500,000 $41,300,000
Keanu Warner Bros. / New Line $4,200,000 $16,300,000
Zootopia Disney $3,400,000 $328,300,000
Barbershop: The Next Cut Warner Bros. / New Line $2,900,000 $49,000,000
The Boss Universal $2,800,000 $60,200,000
Ratchet & Clank Focus / Gramercy $2,300,000 $7,900,000
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Warner Bros. $1,600,000 $327,800,000

Shawn Robbins, Daniel Garris, and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Its true May 04, 2016

    Disney can’t get a movie wrong this year even if they try lol

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Stevenson May 05, 2016

      The Finest Hours was a decent financial loss.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Nathan Osborne May 05, 2016

    The only downfall to Captain America: Civil War is simply the audacious expectations that it carries. I think this will absolute soar; smash through the 1 billion barrier in lightning time, be loved by one and all and excite people for future instalments and Phase Three (unlike the previous superhero vs. superhero film…) but should anything slip slightly, it will fall on its own sword, almost.

    At least it has goodwill, excellent reviews and the love of a massive fanbase (and more importantly, general audiences) should see it soar (as, quite frankly, it deserves to be – feel free to check out my own review here – http://perksofbeingnath.blogspot.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-2016-review.html)

    Reply

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