Weekend Forecast: ‘Christopher Robin,’ ‘Spy Who Dumped Me,’ & ‘Darkest Minds’ Take On Reigning ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’

August is set to kick off with what could be a close race for the top spot at the box office between a new release and last week’s top film, Mission: Impossible – Fallout.

Disney’s Christopher Robin
Opening Weekend Range: $26 – 35 million

Multiple generations of Winnie the Pooh fans are expected to help turn this live action imagining into a successful new adventure for audiences young and old. Twitter activity has trended far ahead of comparable titles like Peter Rabbit and Pete’s Dragon, while Facebook growth far outstrips that of the latter. Traditional tracking suggests the film could match the debut of Disney’s previous live-action effort earlier this year, A Wrinkle In Time, while the staggered overseas release positions Christopher Robin for a healthy global run.

Disney expects a domestic weekend in the high $20 millions to $30 million.

The Darkest Minds
Opening Weekend Range: $5 – 11 million

Unfortunately, the young adult novel adaptation craze of the 2000s and early 2010s has faded, which is a driving factor behind Boxoffice’s forecasts. Social media buzz for this release is pacing significantly behind that of The 5th WaveMortal Instruments: City of Bones, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.

Fox expects a weekend around $10 million.

The Spy Who Dumped Me
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 18 million

Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon are the keys to helping this generate a strong female audience on opening weekend, potentially serving as the mirror of what led to The Hitman’s Bodyguard‘s success one year ago this month. While Twitter activity is fairly solid this week, it trails the overall trends of films like Rough Night and Bad Moms — which opened on two opposite ends of the spectrum over the past two summers.

Lionsgate expects a weekend in the low teen million range.

Top 10

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $118 million+. That would mark at least a 12 percent increase from the same frame last year when The Dark Tower and Kidnap debuted as part of an overall $105.4 million top ten market.

Weekend Forecast

Although slightly favoring Christopher Robin by a slim margin, we currently project this weekend’s race for first place between it and Mission: Impossible – Fallout will be too close to call until the weekend.

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 5 % Change from Last Wknd
Disney’s Christopher Robin Disney $31,500,000 $31,500,000 NEW
Mission: Impossible – Fallout Paramount $31,500,000 $117,500,000 -49%
The Spy Who Dumped Me Lionsgate $14,400,000 $14,400,000 NEW
The Darkest Minds Fox $8,400,000 $8,400,000 NEW
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Universal $7,900,000 $89,000,000 -48%

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Shawn Robbins

14 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Alessio Pasquali August 01, 2018

    Man! Winnie the Pooh and Tom Cruise are really gonna duke it out at the box office this weekend.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Multiplex37 August 01, 2018

    Great work as always, folks! Big Mem relies on your predictions!

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Greg August 01, 2018

    I hope Cruise beats the stuffing out of Winnie! Just kidding…my family and I are planning to see CR. Thing is, with no reviews yet, I’m kind of worried if it’s any good.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Alessio Pasquali August 01, 2018

      Early reactions from Rotten Tomatoes-approves critics say its delightful and decent. BTW, the only reason I’m not worried yet is because Captain Underpants had it’s embargo lifted on Thursday, yet still got great reviews.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Greg August 01, 2018

        I haven’t seen a single review yet, and I keep checking! Delightful and decent would be fine by me…thanks for the heads-up.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Alessio Pasquali August 01, 2018

          That’s why I said reactions, not reviews.

          Reply
  4. Avatar
    Mateo DAnello August 01, 2018

    My predictions:
    1. M:I-F – $35 M
    2. Christopher Robin- $33.5 M
    3. Darkest Minds- $11 M
    4. Spy Who Dumped Me- $10 M
    5. Mamma Mia 2- $8 M

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Gary August 01, 2018

    Why ONLY top 5? Several weeks now. Could you please let us know at LEAST the top 10?????

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    ddd August 02, 2018

    According to me Mission impossible would be number 1 grosser this week .

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Mike August 02, 2018

    It’s Thurs morning and still zero “Chistopher Robin” reviews posted on RT and Metacritic. Sure seems odd for a high-profile Disney release.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Michael August 03, 2018

    Mission Impossible is going to do 33-36 mil in my opinion. It’s been tracking just ahead of the daily box office take of MI5 and that did 28.5 mil in its 2nd weekend.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Iceman56 August 03, 2018

    Christopher Robin should bring in at least $40 million and Mission 6 $34 million. One note: Death of a Nation will surprise with $7-8 million.

    Reply
  10. Avatar
    jbone August 04, 2018

    wow so wrong

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    Charles August 04, 2018

    Black Panther *finally* crosses $700M today. Could have done this 2 months ago. BP has been on $699M since June 2nd. What took Disney so long to get off their keister and do this? Really don’t understand it.

    Reply

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