Weekend Forecast: ‘Escape Room’ to Offer First New Release of 2019

Following a solid holiday corridor to cap off 2018, the new year begins with one wide release as holdovers will continue to remain the strength of the current market.

Escape Room
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

PROS:

  • Positioned as the only wide release this weekend, teen and young adult crowds who have already checked out the holiday season’s high profile films could drive attendance.
  • The horror genre has continued to over-perform more often than not, and a PG-13 rating here further aids the potential of ticket sales to those under 18. The lack of major titles in the genre since Halloween could also boost interest.
  • Optimistic pre-release tracking trends have compared well to Truth or Dare, although the studio conservatively expects around $10 million this weekend.

CONS:

  • After a busy holiday slate, and with no franchise-like brand name, it’s reasonable to expect initial demand will be more conservative than films like Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare or last January’s Insidious: The Last Key.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $112 million. That would represent a 22 percent decline from the same frame last year when Insidious: The Last Key debuted in second place behind Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, while ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedand The Greatest Showman.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 6 % Change from Last Wknd
Aquaman Warner Bros. $28,000,000 $257,000,000 -46%
Mary Poppins Returns Disney $19,000,000 $141,900,000 -33%
Escape Room Sony / Columbia $13,600,000 $13,600,000 NEW
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $12,800,000 $133,400,000 -32%
Bumblebee Paramount $12,700,000 $97,000,000 -39%
The Mule Warner Bros. $8,000,000 $80,100,000 -34%
Vice Annapurna $5,400,000 $29,300,000 -30%
Second Act STX $4,800,000 $32,800,000 -35%
Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $4,300,000 $186,800,000 -36%
Holmes and Watson Sony / Columbia $3,500,000 $28,500,000 -53%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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Shawn Robbins

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Multiplex37 January 03, 2019

    Only 13.6 for Escape Room? Oh dear friends, take it from the horror guru, the apex predator, Big Mem himself…Escape Room does 18mm and creeps up on 20mm. There is no escaping that fact.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ed January 05, 2019

      I will say no

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Delle January 03, 2019

    Aquaman might very well spend 4 weeks at the top because January’s line up of films are thin and very weak until “Glass” opens on the 18th.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      ramon carter January 03, 2019

      agreed

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Michael January 04, 2019

      Glass will also have little competition from other January openers.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    RussVB January 03, 2019

    There’s some theater space opening up this weekend with just one wide release and Mortal Engines losing 2428 (!) sites. Warner’s is putting The Mule into +425 of them to steer it towards a 100M total.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Rueben January 04, 2019

    Has anyone else heard that Universal is holding back prints of Glass to theaters that did not play their Mortal Engines? Doesn’t this affect all smaller market independent theaters, which will hurt the pictures grosses?

    Reply

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