Weekend Forecast: ‘Boo 2! A Madea Halloween,’ ‘Geostorm,’ ‘Only the Brave,’ ‘Same Kind of Different As Me,’ & ‘The Snowman’
The pre-holiday theatrical slate brings forth a handful of new releases this weekend, hoping to claim a piece of the autumn pie before November’s heavy hitters arrive. Our weekend forecast:
- Geostorm boasts Gerard Butler in a similar role that helped him drive the success of Olympus Has Fallen and its sequel. Twitter activity is somewhat stronger than Gods of Egypt and Into the Storm.
- Only the Brave boasts a strong ensemble, a heroic true life story, and encouraging reviews (95 percent and 7.2 rating from 22 critics on Rotten Tomatoes) that could help it appeal to older men and women. Twitter activity is comparable to The Finest Hours.
- Same Kind of Different as Me marks the latest faith-based drama from Pure Flix, a studio which has had its fair share of low-budget successes centered around Christian themes. The studio is projecting an opening between $3 million and $4 million.
- The Snowman aims to leverage the fan base of Jo Nesbø’s bestselling book with an ensemble cast led by Michael Fassbender. Appeal to women will be key if this is to break out beyond expectations. Facebook activity is comparable to The Mountain Between Us.
- Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween strikes while the iron is hot after last year’s strong run by the first Madea Halloween. Recent weekly Twitter data is similar to that film.
- Geostorm lacks any critical reviews so far, which is an ominous sign this close to release. Moreover, disaster pics aren’t the hot commodity they were two decades ago without significant star power, a prime release date, and/or a unique hook. Facebook growth is leagues behind that of Gods of Egypt and Into the Storm.
- Only the Brave has struggled to gain a foothold on social media with Twitter and Facebook activity comparable to 2015’s The 33 and well below that of Everest.
- Same Kind of Different as Me‘s trends don’t suggest this will break out beyond the core church-going audience in the vein of War Room as marketing has been minimal.
- The Snowman is weighed down by poor reviews thus far (26 percent/3.8 rating from 42 critics), while Twitter trends are markedly behind The Secret In Their Eyes. The film’s 1,800+ location count also limits potential.
- Comedic sequels rarely live up to their predecessors’ runs these days. For Boo 2!, it appears that will again be the case as social media sentiment isn’t standing out as much as was seen this time last year when the first Boo! opened.
The Weekend Forecast:
|Title||Distributor||Weekend||Domestic Total through Sunday, October 22||% Change|
|Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween||Lionsgate||$19,000,000||$19,000,000||NEW|
|Happy Death Day||Universal||$11,000,000||$42,500,000||-58%|
|Only the Brave||Sony / Columbia||$9,000,000||$9,000,000||NEW|
|Blade Runner 2049||Warner Bros. / Sony / Alcon||$8,900,000||$76,150,000||-43%|
|IT||Warner Bros. (New Line)||$3,800,000||$320,700,000||-37%|
|The Mountain Between Us||Fox||$3,200,000||$25,900,000||-44%|
|Same Kind of Different As Me||Pure Flix||$3,100,000||$3,100,000||NEW|
For media requests pertaining to forecasts and analysis, contact Shawn Robbins