Weekend Forecast: ‘Halloween’ Set to Repeat Against ‘Hunter Killer,’ ‘Indivisible,’ & ‘Johnny English Strikes Again’

The final weekend of a record-breaking October is looking to be a relatively quiet one on the new release front, but plenty of holdovers will combine for a strong finish to the month before the industry’s holiday corridor officially kicks off next week.

Leading the pack in its second frame will be Halloweenfresh off the second biggest October opening in history. Although the film experienced some natural front-loading by fans last Thursday and Friday, the lack of major competition this weekend and the proximity to next Wednesday’s haunted holiday will make it a natural choice for audiences again — especially with positive word of mouth contributing to the film’s momentum. Additionally, Halloween will begin a one-week run in IMAX (stealing screens from fellow Universal release, First Man), which should help pad the weekend-to-weekend drop depending on demand for the film in that format.

A Star Is Born and Venom will continue to display their legs this weekend as well with no direct competition entering the market. We again expect the former of the two to claim second place for a fourth straight frame.

Hoping to debut in the top four, Lionsgate’s Hunter Killer will target adult male audiences thanks to an appealing ensemble led by Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman, and Common. Tracking and social media growth have been slow compared to last fall’s Geostorm and this past summer’s Mile 22, but an opening in the high single digit millions is achievable based on current on trends.

Although an official theater count was not available at the time of this report, A24’s Mid90s is expected to begin a nationwide expansion this weekend after its excellent $258K platform release in four theaters last weekend. Boxoffice forecasts Jonah Hill’s well-reviewed directorial debut could crack the top ten with around $2 million or more based on unofficial theater count estimates.

Meanwhile, Pure Flix’s Indivisible (830 locations) and Universal’s Johnny English Strikes Again (500 locations) will open in semi-wide release with figures that could see either (or both) debut outside the top ten with roughly $2 million each based on current metrics. For the low-budget faith-based film, that would be a fair start, while the comedy sequel is built as an international player as it prepares to cross $100 million in global earnings.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will generate approximately $94 million. That would translate to nearly a 63 percent increase from the same weekend last year when JigsawThank You for Your Service, and Suburbicon opened as part of a struggling $57.9 million top ten market.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 28 % Change from Last Wknd
Halloween (2018) Universal $33,000,000 $128,000,000 -57%
A Star Is Born Warner Bros. $13,800,000 $148,200,000 -28%
Venom Sony / Columbia $11,400,000 $188,000,000 -37%
Hunter Killer Lionsgate / Summit $8,800,000 $8,800,000 NEW
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween Sony / Columbia $7,000,000 $37,900,000 -28%

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Shawn Robbins

15 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Multiplex37 October 24, 2018

    Looking good, my friends. But I think you might be underestimating that fresh Jonah Hill joint. Big Mem’s looking for a 600+ TC meaning Mid90s will end up in the mid-5s.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    DC Rich October 24, 2018

    33m will be way too high for Halloween.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Delle October 24, 2018

      @DC Rich – Really? I actually think the prediction is a little low, how much do you think it will make this weekend?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Mg October 25, 2018

        I think Halloween is dropping 65-70%..

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Ed October 25, 2018

          Not really

          Reply
        • Avatar
          George October 25, 2018

          Yeah. Probably not. I would say 55% since IMAX is in play for a week.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Ben October 25, 2018

            I’d say 55-65 I don’t see it dropping 70

      • Avatar
        DC Rich October 25, 2018

        In comparing it to Venom’s weekday numbers, I just didn’t see it. However it will get a boost from the IMAX theatres and from Halloween around the corner. So maybe it does get there. We’ll see.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Ed October 25, 2018

          I will say no

          Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen October 26, 2018

      The weekday business finished at about 18.5mil, which is about a quarter of the previous weekend’s gross. That’s the right percentage for a well received film during the school year, so the subsequent weekend should follow another trend for a film of this caliber: being roughly double the previous weekday totals. That would give us a weekend gross of 37mil, plus or minus say 2mil for error. So a 33mil guess is safe and accurate, I would think.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Rick October 25, 2018

    That Halloween figure is entirely too high. Exceptionally front loaded film with a big chunk of people who did not like it.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      George October 25, 2018

      You’re entirely too high.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Kris October 25, 2018

      It has an 80% fresh rating on rotten tomatoes and a B+ CinemaScore rating from audiences. People are enjoying it.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    J. October 25, 2018

    Halloween more like 25mil,
    It did not live up to they hype

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Andy October 26, 2018

    Halloween may have dropped bigger had it been released any other weekend, but this weekend’s proximity to the Halloween holiday will probably help it drop less than 60%. It could play closer to IT las year which only dropped about 51% in its second weekend last year.

    Reply

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