Weekend Forecast: ‘Incredibles 2’ Poised for Massive Animated Record Debut as ‘Superfly’ & ‘Tag’ Counter-Program

Mid-June’s box office is about to heat up again with one of the most anticipated animated sequels of all time making its debut over Father’s Day weekend.

Incredibles 2
Opening Weekend Range: $136 – 165 million
Domestic Total Range: $450 – 540 million

Pre-release tracking for the long awaited sequel continues to impress as the first animated event of summer is drawing strong interest from all four quadrants and blowing up across social media. After weeks of comparatively lower-to-similar numbers, the film’s Twitter footprint is suddenly far outpacing those of Finding Dory and Minions this week, generating a consistent number of daily mentions typically only seen by the likes of Marvel and Star Wars films.

Additionally, Incredibles 2‘s stellar reviews are driving excitement even higher as the film brings out nostalgic fans who grew up on the beloved 2004 original while appealing to today’s own younger audiences.

The timing of its release couldn’t be more auspicious as the golden era of comic book and superhero films has taken hold during the Pixar family’s 14-year cinematic absence — an element we previously discussed as possibly elevating upfront demand above the levels other animated sequels. Opening in time for Father’s Day on Sunday should provide another box office benefit with family audiences turning out in droves throughout the weekend. Fandango recently reported that Brad Bird’s highly anticipated follow-up is on pace to top Finding Dory as the company’s best pre-selling animated title in company history.

The usual caveats are still present: all forms of tracking can be more challenging to read for a film boasting this level of buzz, hence our wide range. The animated medium is particularly known to be less front-loaded than live action films, which can skew opening weekend tracking and often inflate expectations. Toy Story 3, for example, slightly over-tracked ahead of its Father’s Day weekend release eight years ago after debuting a few weeks later than Shrek Forever After — only to post spectacular staying power throughout the summer.

That being said, animated releases have a recent history of over-performing at the box office instead of the alternative.

Simply put, there are too many factors in this film’s favor not to expect an animated record opening at this point. Finding Dory‘s $135.06 million is the current standard-bearer, while inflation-adjusted trophies belong to Shrek the Third ($161.9 million) and Shrek 2 ($159.4 million) ahead of Dory‘s own 2018-adjusted figure ($141.7 million).

Our models suggest Incredibles 2 could potentially even best Spider-Man 3‘s $151.1 million non-adjusted debut to become the biggest weekend ever by a superhero film not starring Batman or Marvel Cinematic Universe characters.

Disney’s official projection is in the $120 – 140 million range. We’ll see how the weekend plays out, but it’s going to be a big one no matter how you slice it.

Superfly
Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 9 million (3-day)

Counter-programming as a hyper-targeted release, expectations are modest at this stage. Sony projects a $10 – 12 million five-day opening, which would be a solid showing considering the relatively frugal $16 million production budget. Social media trends are currently trailing those of Dope.

Tag
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

Opening over Father’s Day weekend and boasting an ensemble of popular male leads could help this beat expectations, but current trends suggest it may fall a bit shy of the debuts posted by Game Night and Blockers earlier this year,. Facebook activity trails that of The House, while the standing review embargo as of Wednesday afternoon further quiets expectations. The comedy’s strength could come from adult males without kids and lacking interest in Pixar’s opener, though. No projections from the studio were made available at the time of our publishing.

Top 10 Notes and Comps

Father’s Day weekend should treat male-driven films like Solo: A Star Wars StoryDeadpool 2, and Avengers: Infinity War well. The first and latter of that trio could additionally benefit from double features with each other and/or Incredibles 2, a common strategy for Disney that makes weekend forecasts more volatile for these titles.

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn $220 million or more. That would mark at least a 23 percent improvement from the same weekend last year, which saw Pixar’s Cars 3 debut to $53.7 million as part of an overall $178.9 million Father’s Day weekend.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 17 % Change from Last Wknd
Incredibles 2 Disney / Pixar $152,000,000 $152,000,000 NEW
Ocean’s 8 Warner Bros. $22,000,000 $81,900,000 -47%
Tag Warner Bros. $13,000,000 $13,000,000 NEW
Solo: A Star Wars Story Disney / Lucasfilm $9,800,000 $193,700,000 -38%
Deadpool 2 Fox $8,700,000 $294,500,000 -39%
Superfly Sony / Columbia $7,000,000 $10,000,000 NEW
Hereditary A24 $6,800,000 $27,600,000 -50%
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $4,700,000 $663,900,000 -35%
Book Club Paramount $2,500,000 $62,700,000 -41%
Adrift STX $2,200,000 $27,000,000 -58%
Shawn Robbins

8 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Fred June 13, 2018

    You’re prediction of “The Incredibles 2” sounds like a pretty good prediction. I think it will open no worse than $140 million this weekend and possibly as high as $160 million. In any case I2 is going to be a much needed monster at the box office, between this movie and “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom next weekend this year’s summer box office pace should fly well ahead of last summer’s box office during the same time period.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Zy June 13, 2018

      Well said!

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Jacen June 13, 2018

    I’m interested in seeing how well Hereditary holds. While I liked the film, the audience I was with left with a distinct “meh,” and Cinemascore’s result was a D+. A 50% drop may indeed be the result, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more like 60+.

    I also have a feeling that Incredibles 2 will open in the higher end. Weeks have passed since the last time a film has opened with a “gotta see” vibe, and the marketing makes the film look like it will deliver.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Chris Collins June 13, 2018

    Incredibles 2 is getting the animation opening record with 142-145 at least even if (hopefully not) it winds up not being as good as the first.
    But the hype is there for sure even with the first one now on 4K UHD. Fallen kingdom will do great but I’m seeing mid 120’s depending on word of mouth for the first film’s 25th anniversary. Both should hold strong until 4th of July (ant man and the wasp/first purge)

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Greg June 14, 2018

    Personally, I’m guessing Tag is going to do worse than that. I mean, it’s a fairly fun premise, and could have been something families could have enjoyed. But, of course, it’s gotta be rated R, because, you know, you can’t play tag without nudity and sexual innuendo.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Justin June 14, 2018

    Agree with Incredibles but I think you are over valuing Father’s Day and discounting the steep drop in screens for Solo this weekend. I see Solo dropping behind Deadpool 2. Hereditary will suffer a 65+ percent drop as films with that low of cinema scores often do. People who were curious about it saw it opening weekend. I expect Oceans 8 to take a sizable sequel drop of over 50% too. My unprofessional opinion guess of box office :

    1. Incredibles $150
    2. Oceans 8 – $19
    3. Tag – $15
    4. Deadpool 2 – $9
    5. Solo – $8
    6. Infinity War $5.5
    7. Hereditary – $5
    8. Superfly – $4.5
    9. Book Club – $2.5
    10. Adrift – $2

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    David Howell June 14, 2018

    Disney may have lost a bundle on Solo, but they’re going to make it back on Incredibles 2. As Jacen said, this is the first release this month with big-time hype, the reviews suggest the audiences aren’t going to be disappointed, and it’s been an even longer wait for the family audience, with Solo so underwhelming and Infinity War not the most tyke-friendly MCU movie.

    Incredibles 2 is only the sixth PG-rated saturation release of the year – and the last two (Show Dogs, Sherlock Gnomes) combined for the grand non-total of $16.6m opening weekends. COMBINED. By comparison, there were also five pre-Father’s Day PG-rated releases last year… but one of them was BaTB and two others (Lego Batman, Boss Baby) had $50m openings. This year has not even had one $35m PG-rated opening. To say the market is clear for The Incredibles 2 would be an understatement, and the only threat on the horizon is JW:FK, which is PG-13 anyway.

    In retrospect, if I’d noticed *just* how wide open the market is, I’d have been joining the commenters on here who anticipated a Dory-busting opening before tracking did.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Charles June 14, 2018

    $175-200M

    Reply

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