Weekend Forecast: The LEGO Movie 2, What Men Want, Cold Pursuit, & The Prodigy

After a relatively miserable two weekends at the box office (especially when compared to the strong market this time last year), the coming frame is poised for a noticeable turnaround thanks to a slew of new releases targeting a variety of moviegoers.

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 60 million

PROS:

  • The film’s direct predecessor (The LEGO Movie) was a runaway hit five years ago thanks to its star-driven voice cast, strong comedic formula, animation rule-shattering storyline, and appeal to both kids and parents. It earned $69 million opening weekend on its way to $257.8 million stateside. The LEGO Batman Movie ($53 million / $175.8 million) spin-off later achieved success with a similar arsenal two years ago.
  • Since the holiday season ended, a drought of widely appealing, family-friendly movies has gripped the theatrical market. Audiences are hungry for this type of film right now, which could drive healthy walk-up business.
  • Trailer Impact and traditional tracking metrics are comparable to those of LEGO Batman and Ralph Breaks the Internet, while coming in ahead of Hotel Transylvania 3.
  • Standing at 91 percent on Rotten Tomatoes currently, we expect strong reviews to further convince older viewers who may be “LEGO-ed out” after several franchise films over the years.

CONS:

  • The LEGO Ninjago Movie proved the brand isn’t invincible when it under-performed to the tune of a $20.4 million debut and $59.3 million domestic finish. Still, we expect that film’s more niche fan base and mixed reviews made it more of an exception than a rule.

What Men Want
Opening Weekend Range: $18 – 28 million

PROS:

  • Taraji P. Henson brings a significant fan base with her, and this has the makings of a strong “ladies’ night out” option in the vein of Girls Trip. Staying power could be fairly strong thanks to the double holiday weekend ahead.
  • The demand for diverse casts and female-led films is stronger than ever, adding further breakout potential to what already serves as a spiritual sequel to Nancy Meyers’ hit rom-com, What Women Want.
  • Trailer Impact audience surveys are comparable to those of Night School, registering 67 percent interest compared to the latter’s 72 percent the week before release.

CONS:

  • With no critics’ reviews available yet, it’s difficult to gauge the kind of longevity the film could have. Nevertheless, this genre is typically more review-proof than others.

Cold Pursuit
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Liam Neeson has built a reliable track record of mid-range performers leaning toward adult males in recent years. Tracking for this title is comparable to last year’s The Commuter, as well as The 15:17 to Paris and the Death Wish remake.
  • Critics’ reviews are driving expectations for a leggier run than once expected.
  • As the only film specifically targeting older men this weekend, there’s room for beating conservative industry expectations.

CONS:

  • Marketing hasn’t delivered the same type of awareness level seen by previous Neeson films, which could play into an opening on the lower end of expectations.

The Prodigy
Opening Weekend Range: $4 – 8 million

PROS:

  • The horror audience has generally been starved in recent months, although January’s Escape Room was a considerable mid-range success.
  • Trailer Impact audience scores stood at 65 percent last week, not far behind the 70 percent of The Possession of Hannah Grace at the same point. As a small budget title, that’s an encouraging indicator even if it doesn’t break out beyond single-digit millions.

CONS:

  • Marketing reach has been quite limited as Orion Pictures remains in the early stages of its relaunch as a distributor.
  • Early reviews are mixed at 50 percent, although the sample size of nine critics leaves an asterisk on that metric for now.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten will earn between $116 – $122 million, representing a 2 – 7 percent increase from the same weekend last year ($113.8 million). During that frame, Fifty Shades FreedPeter Rabbit, and The 15:17 to Paris debuted atop the box office on the same post-Super Bowl weekend.


Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 10 % Change from Last Wknd
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part Warner Bros. $55,000,000 $55,000,000 NEW
What Men Want Paramount $24,000,000 $24,000,000 NEW
Cold Pursuit Lionsgate / Summit $11,500,000 $11,500,000 NEW
The Upside STX $6,700,000 $85,200,000 -23%
The Prodigy Orion Pictures $6,000,000 $6,000,000 NEW
Glass Universal $5,400,000 $97,500,000 -43%
Green Book Universal $3,400,000 $61,300,000 -22%
Miss Bala Sony / Columbia $3,300,000 $12,500,000 -52%
Aquaman Warner Bros. $3,200,000 $328,500,000 -34%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $2,600,000 $179,400,000 -43%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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Shawn Robbins

2 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Jacen February 06, 2019

    Another con for Cold Pursuit is the recent controversy surrounding Neeson’s angry youth and what he tried to do at that time. That could halve your projections if Neeson fans and casual viewers are revolted enough by the content of his story.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      BL February 07, 2019

      Was about to say this

      Reply

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