Weekend Forecast: Miss Bala and They Shall Not Grow Old Open on Slow Super Bowl Weekend

February 1 Update: Sony reports this morning that Miss Bala earned $650K from shows beginning at 7pm in 2,050 theaters on Thursday night. For comparison purposes, Peppermint earned $800K last fall. Early weekend estimates to follow on Saturday morning.

January 30 Report: The dead zone of late January will reach its nadir this weekend as the box office endures another lull due to the lack of high profile new releases combined with the effects of Sunday’s NFL Super Bowl game.

Despite the success of films like Dear John ($30.5 million), The Woman In Black ($20.9 million), Chronicle ($22.0 million), and Warm Bodies ($20.4 million) between 2010 and 2013 (not to forget Taken‘s $24.7 million in 2009 and Hannah Montana‘s $31.1 million in 2008), it’s been six years since any new release earned more than $13 million (2017’s Rings) on SB weekend. In contrast to the increased adoption of year-round scheduling for blockbusters, this has become a weekend studios have increasingly avoided. That six-year streak isn’t likely to change this year as Sony is the only new entrant into the market this weekend with Miss Bala, a thriller whose tracking signals are relatively modest. We’re expecting a debut anywhere between $4 – 8 million.

Oscar candidates and kid-driven films will be the least susceptible to massive drops this weekend, but we’re also keeping an eye on Peter Jackson’s They Shall Not Grow Old as the highly acclaimed WWI documentary will expand into an estimated 500 theaters beginning Friday. The film earned $8.34 million from limited screenings on January 21, December 17, and December 27, smashing records for one-day event screenings. With a full weekend slate of showtimes ahead and significant buzz for the Warner Bros. / Fathom Events release, it wouldn’t be surprising if the film shoulders a strong enough haul to crack the top five this weekend. It might even be a dark horse candidate to top Bala.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $52 million. That would represent a 21 percent decline from the same weekend last year when Winchester marked the lone opener on the comparable Super Bowl weekend, which saw the top ten films earn $65.7 million.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 3 % Change from Last Wknd
Glass Universal $9,500,000 $88,500,000 -50%
The Upside STX $7,400,000 $74,000,000 -38%
Miss Bala Sony / Columbia $6,500,000 $6,500,000 NEW
They Shall Not Grow Old Warner Bros. $4,600,000 $12,940,000
Green Book Universal $4,300,000 $55,700,000 -22%
The Kid Who Would Be King Fox $4,300,000 $13,100,000 -40%
Aquaman Warner Bros. $4,000,000 $322,600,000 -45%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $3,900,000 $174,600,000 -36%
A Dog’s Way Home Sony / Columbia $3,200,000 $35,300,000 -37%
Escape Room Sony / Columbia $2,300,000 $51,400,000 -44%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.


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Shawn Robbins

6 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Reece January 31, 2019

    I think Green Book will end up around $70-80 million at the end of its run.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      night walker January 31, 2019

      Why? it’s doing well, and $80 million is a possibility, but it still has a long way to go to get there. I can see $70 million, but not $80 million. however I could be wrong.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        JCM January 31, 2019

        It’s at $50 million right now. While it isn’t likely to continue posting increases weekend-over-weekend as it has been the last 3 weekends, it does seem to be the film that is benefiting the most from its Oscar buzz. I expect it to post a modest drop this weekend (20-25%), an even more modest drop next weekend + President’s Day weekend (single digits or low teens for both), then a slight bump on Oscar weekend. So we’re talking around $4 million each weekend for the next 4 weekends, plus weekday grosses that will tally at least half of their respective weekends (and more on the weeks with Valentine’s Day and President’s Day).

        All that alone brings it up to $74 million. After Oscars night, it will either wind down its box office run with another $7-12 million, or it will win Best Picture (a real possibility, though not at all a shoo-in) & experience a final weekend bump, which could mean up to another $20 million after Oscars weekend.

        So yes, $70-80 million is extremely reasonable, and perhaps quite modest an estimate.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    night walker January 31, 2019

    Why dose every website keep under estimating Aqua-man? Other than glass they have it as the second biggest drop in the top ten for the weekend. Aqua-man has continually matched or exceeded expectations every weekend. I know that the super bowl is this weekend, but a 45% drop still seems very high. A 45% drop would be Aqua-man’s biggest weekend drop yet, and with the lack of the lack of new releases, and given how well Aqua-man held last weekend I would say a 40% drop is the highest drop it could face i think it will be between 30%-35% drop.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      RussVB January 31, 2019

      quick calc… 30% lower on fri/sat then s’bowl-cratered sun = 4.4 weekend, off ~40%.
      I don’t think that’s quite worst case scenario, but agree that a smaller drop is more likely than a larger one.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    JLW January 31, 2019

    I swear, if “They Shall Not Grow Old” manages to make more than “Mortal Engines”… Not exactly what we would have expected from Peter Jackson’s films going into the holiday season.

    Reply

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