Weekend Forecast: ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ & ‘Teen Titans GO! to the Movies’

The final frame of July marks the sixth entry in Tom Cruise’s only career franchise (until next year’s Top Gun sequel, anyway) and the summer’s final all-animated release.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 75 million

Momentum continues to build ahead of opening weekend as the sixth entry in the 22-year-old film franchise is riding a wave of incredible reviews. Social media growth has far outpaced that of Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and fellow late summer action releases like Jason Bourne and Star Trek Beyond.  Traditional tracking similarly points to a franchise-best opening weekend as awareness and interest levels continue to impress. With strong word of mouth expected, and a 3D price boost in overseas markets, a run beyond $200 million domestically and $700 million+ globally looks more than feasible for summer’s final tentpole release.

Teen Titans GO! to the Movies
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 23 million

Opening just two weeks after Hotel Transylvania 3 may cut into the target audience, but the existing brand and popularity of superheroes is expected to play to this film’s advantage — especially given its own strong reception thus far. Excluding next week’s Christopher Robin, this release has a clear run through the rest of summer with no direct competition through Labor Day. Twitter activity has been comparable to The Emoji Movie, although Facebook growth has been more modest.

Top 10

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn $160 million or more at the domestic box office. That would mark at least a 19 percent growth from the same frame last year when Dunkirk led the market in its second frame over new releases Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde as part of an overall $134.1 million top ten.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 29 % Change from Last Wknd
Mission: Impossible – Fallout Paramount $70,000,000 $70,000,000 NEW
Teen Titans GO! to the Movies Warner Bros. $17,500,000 $17,500,000 NEW
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Universal $16,500,000 $70,400,000 -53%
The Equalizer 2 Sony / Columbia $15,700,000 $66,400,000 -56%
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Sony / Columbia $12,800,000 $118,300,000 -46%
Shawn Robbins

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Multiplex37 July 26, 2018

    Great work as always, folks! Methinks these look spot-on!

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    N July 26, 2018

    Only five?

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    David Howell July 26, 2018

    I’d be surprised if it were that close between last week’s top two given how much audience overlap there is between Equalizer 2 and MI Fallout. Mind you, the former has already shocked us all once…

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Kyle July 26, 2018

    Last week someone complained there were only 6 movies projected, now it’s only 5!

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Chad c July 26, 2018

    It’s so that good old fashion fun like the mission impossibles can’t be more around the 80 to 90 million opening range. I am totally going out and saying this is taking the professionals off guard to deliver a 86 million opening.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Marc it July 26, 2018

    Momentum could take MI: FALLOUT well past the 70/75 million mark. Much like A QUIET PLACE blowing past its 30 million forecast all the way up to a $55 million opening weekend, MI: THE FALLOUT could blow up $20 to $30 million past the weekend forecast.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Kevster July 27, 2018

    I’m a little underwhelmed with the list no longer going 10 deep.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      MovieJeff July 27, 2018

      Couldn’t agree more. No compelling news here. Though I don’t think “Teen Titans” will beat “Mama Mia”, I already know they’re going to be close and the other three are pretty obvious. I’m always curious to see what surprises may be in store further down the list. Like, where’s “Eighth Grade” going to land? Is “Sorry To Bother” going to hold on for a slowly built success or peter off.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Youre Getting Lazy Box Office Pro July 27, 2018

      They’re getting lazy. Guess they want people to find full forecasts elsewhere…

      Reply

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