Weekend Forecast: ‘The Predator,’ ‘A Simple Favor,’ ‘White Boy Rick,’ & ‘Unbroken: Path to Redemption’

September rolls on this weekend with four new wide releases aiming for a variety of audiences.

Leading the pack is expected to be Fox and writer/director Shane Black’s The Predator. Traditional industry tracking points to what could be a breakout debut in the $30 million+ range; however, social media models and the film’s mixed critical response suggest this may end up even more front-loaded by nostalgic fans than the likes of Blade Runner 2049 and Alien: Covenant. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a debut anywhere between $25 million and $35 million this weekend.

Conversely, A Simple Favor is popping late in the marketing phase and forecasting models indicate increasingly positive signs. The film’s strong early reviews are likely helping pre-release interest perk up beyond the target fan base of the source novel. Additionally, stars Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively — behind director Paul Feig — command notable appeal with their recent track records. Social media and tracking awareness levels haven’t reached the levels of Red Sparrow or The Girl on the Train yet, but there could be significant upside for the film over the next few days.

Rounding out the opener front, White Boy Rick is trending a bit more modestly than once expected as it looks to debut in the high single digit millions, with an outside chance at $10 million. Debuting in semi-wide release, Unbroken: Path to Redemption is tracking similar to other faith-based titles like last week’s God Bless the Broken Road and God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness. The semi-sequel to the original 2014 crowd-pleaser looks to open in the $2 million to $5 million range.

Meanwhile, The Nun is likely to claim second place behind The Predator this weekend after an excellent $53.8 million opening frame last week.

Top 10 v. Last Year

Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $100 million. That would represent a marginal 2 percent decline from the same weekend last year when It continued to dominate the field in first place ahead of releases American Assassin and mother! as part of an overall $101.6 million top ten market.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 16 % Change from Last Wknd
The Predator Fox $29,000,000 $29,000,000 NEW
The Nun Warner Bros. / New Line $22,000,000 $90,200,000 -59%
A Simple Favor Lionsgate $15,000,000 $15,000,000 NEW
Crazy Rich Asians Warner Bros. $9,000,000 $150,000,000 -32%
White Boy Rick Sony / Studio 8 $7,900,000 $7,900,000 NEW

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Shawn Robbins

12 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Multiplex37 September 12, 2018

    Big Mem’s Hot Take of the Week: Unbroken breaks $10 mill. Count on it!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen September 12, 2018

      Highly doubtful. Sermons have been bombing this year, even when they have church-friendly words in their titles. $5mil tops.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Poopyhead Jerry September 12, 2018

        Jaden, u best not be sleeping on “I Can Only Imagine.” It made $83 million and everyone seems to just IGNORE that but that’s so insane

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Ed September 12, 2018

          I will say no

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Peter September 13, 2018

            People were excited about ‘I Can Only Imagine,’ as they already were familiar with the song.

            But an ‘Unbroken’ sequel without anyone from the first movie coming back? Nah.

        • Avatar
          Jacen September 14, 2018

          I Can Only Imagine falls into the category of a mainstream sermon, to me, rather than what I call sermon porn. The former are films like Heaven is Real etc. which do well with audiences and, to a lesser extent, critics and get released by either a major, a mini-major, or a reputable independent (Roadside Attractions, in the case of ICOI); the latter are things like Unbroken 2, which come out via Freestyle or Pure Flix, both of which are spotty at best and which have done not-to-great this year.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      Robby September 13, 2018

      No Way Unbroken tops $10 million, it’s gonna make like $3 million. No one knows it’s even coming out

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Peter September 17, 2018

        Yikes. Not even $3 million. Just $2.35 million.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Whodunit September 12, 2018

    I miss you guys doing the top 10 movie predictions. 5 is not enough.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Audrey September 12, 2018

      I agree completely!

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Delfra September 12, 2018

      I agree, what’s wit these Top 5 movie predictions all of a sudden?

      Reply
    • Avatar
      LJ September 13, 2018

      I agree.

      Reply

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