Weekend Forecast: ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet,’ ‘Creed II,’ & ‘Robin Hood’ Arrive for Mid-Week Thanksgiving Debuts

The long Thanksgiving weekend is upon us. Contrary to last year’s slim offerings, a handful of major studios are aiming to get their share of the pie with three wide releases and one nationwide expansion sitting down at the table on Wednesday.

Ralph Breaks the Internet
Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 75 million (5-day)

PROS:

  • The original 2012 film was one of Disney Animation’s early modern hits that confirmed the studio could churn out animated hits without the Pixar branding. Wreck-It Ralph earned a respectable $189.4 million domestically, and has gone on to become a new favorite of the current generation.
  • Disney has always been a force to be reckoned with, but their profile and drawing power with families have never been higher than right now thanks to a string of mega-blockbusters across their brands in recent years. Their dominance on Thanksgiving is also notable, owning nine of the top ten three-day openings in history.
  • Strong reviews are adding to the momentum for this sequel, which has long been in demand by fans of the original.
  • Fandango pre-sales are ahead of Moana and Coco — fellow Disney releases at Thanksgiving over the past two years.

CONS:

  • The sequel enters a very competitive market with the Fantastic Beasts sequel having just opened five days earlier and, more importantly, continued strength from The Grinch — which has shown signs that it won’t be fading at the box office anytime soon as we get closer to Christmas. That film (in its third frame) and Ralph will certainly be splitting the family and kiddie crowds.
  • Trailer Impact surveys have shown declining levels of interest in recent weeks. Among responses, 73 percent said they were “Definitely Interested” or “Interested” this week — down from nearly 88 percent in mid-October.
  • Twitter trends have trailed Moana and Coco.

Creed II
Opening Weekend Range: $45 – 55 million (5-day)

PROS:

  • The previous film was a critical and commercial darling that earned a fair amount of Oscar attention after a $42 million five-day Thanksgiving debut. This sequel’s largely positive reviews should add to the goodwill earned by the 2015 franchise revival.
  • The series remains a stalwart with a generational fan base that’s excited to see the return of beloved characters and story lines both new and old.
  • Trailer Impact metrics closed out at a seven-week high with nearly 75 percent of those survey responding “Definitely Interested ” or “Interested” this week.

CONS:

  • Twitter trends have paled in comparison to the previous film. In fairness, however, that’s likely due to a more limited marketing reach from distributors MGM and Annapurna compared to the wider net cast by Warner Bros. and New Line three years ago.
  • The film will be contending with a few other titles aiming for adults this weekend, namely Instant FamilyBohemian Rhapsody, and Widows.

Robin Hood
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million (5-Day)

PROS:

  • Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx provide fair star power, the former coming fresh off the popular Kingsman franchise.
  • The IP here is still a selling point on some level, even coming after eight years after Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe’s take on the iconic story.

CONS:

  • Social media growth has lagged behind both King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and the aforementioned 2010 version of Robin Hood.
  • The film’s 20 percent Rotten Tomatoes score isn’t going to help it stand out on a weekend filled to the brim with appealing releases and strong holdovers aiming for a similar audience.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten will earn approximately $194 million over the three-day frame. That would represent a 9 percent increase from the same Thanksgiving weekend last year when Disney/Pixar’s Coco was the only wide opener, leading an overall $178.5 million top ten market.

3-Day Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 25 % Change from Last Wknd
Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $48,800,000 $70,000,000 NEW
Creed II MGM $33,500,000 $49,000,000 NEW
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Warner Bros. $31,500,000 $120,100,000 -49%
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch Universal $30,000,000 $176,900,000 -22%
Instant Family Paramount $13,000,000 $36,100,000 -10%
Bohemian Rhapsody Fox $12,900,000 $150,900,000 -20%
Widows Fox $8,900,000 $26,800,000 -28%
Robin Hood Lionsgate / Summit $8,000,000 $11,600,000 NEW
Green Book Universal $4,500,000 $6,300,000 1304%
A Star Is Born Warner Bros. $3,500,000 $191,800,000 -18%

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Shawn Robbins

10 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Multiplex37 November 20, 2018

    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa OK. Thanksgiving weekend. Always exciting for us box office Stans. You might be a little low on Ralph. But I think you’re really low on Adonis. If I were a betting man, I’d “double down” ; ) on Creed 2 hitting 40!

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    RussVB November 21, 2018

    If Creed II meets expectations it’ll be the first 100 M release with MGM as designated distributor since Die Another Day in 2002.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Brian November 21, 2018

    You guys reckon FB and Grinch hit 200mm and 300mm respectively?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen November 21, 2018

      I think those numbers could be conceivable caps, but the top end will depend upon the next few weeks’ drop-offs. If they can do well up till Xmas, then, yeah, 200 and 300 respectively. If not, then I think the low end max for both would be 175 for FB and 270 for Grinch.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DC Rich November 21, 2018

      FB2 has zero chance of getting to 200m. Its falling fast and dropping further behind FB1 each day. 170m might be the tops. It was made for the international audience anyway. It’ll make money and there will be another but it’s domestic totals for each one will really be lower.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Ed November 23, 2018

        I will say no

        Reply
        • Avatar
          DC Rich November 24, 2018

          You’re welcome to your opinion but you are wrong.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Ed November 25, 2018

            I will say no again

        • Avatar
          DC Rich November 26, 2018

          And you would still be wrong. Again. It’s not getting to 170m let alone 200m. At least you add such incredible insight to these chats. Have a good day.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            RussVB November 26, 2018

            Rich, I got a feeling Dr No was misplacing a reply to the original question, rather than disagreeing with you. Which would be daft because you are right.

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