Weekend Forecast: ‘Rampage’ & ‘Truth or Dare’

Following last weekend’s breakout debut from A Quiet Place, the April market is shaping up to be far more lucrative than already expected as this weekend adds Rampage and Truth or Dare to the marketplace.

The former of the two stands likely to open in first place this weekend as leading Dwayne Johnson anchors the (loosely adapted) video game film fresh off the blockbuster success of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle just a few months ago. Johnson has proven to be one of the most bankable stars working today, particularly in the action genre, and marketing for the film has been dominant in recent weeks. The film’s proximity to Avengers: Infinity War in two weeks could hinder the kind of event-level demand San Andreas enjoyed and further lead to some frontloading, but Rampage‘s overall outlook remains optimistic as Johnson looks to add another hit to his resume.

Truth or Dare will hope to bring out teens with its timely Friday the 13th release, although the micro-budget film will be fending off second weekend crowds for the aforementioned Quiet Place, whose positive word of mouth should fuel a healthy second frame hold.  The Blumhouse name could lift it higher, though tracking for Truth or Dare is more modest than it was for the studio’s previous Friday the 13th release (Happy Death Day, last October). Social media prowess has been comparable to The Bye Bye Man, which also opened on Friday the 13th in January 2017.

Meanwhile, Isle of Dogs will expand nationwide into an estimated 1,750 theaters. Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero is also slated to open, but no theater counts have been reported by the distributor at this time (thus, its exclusion from our forecast). Likewise, Beirut is slated to open in 700+ locations, although the distribution had not confirmed a final count before publishing.

Top 10 Comparisons

Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will collectively earn around $129 million. This would mark an expected 17 percent decline from the same weekend last year when The Fate of the Furious opened on Easter weekend to $98.8 million as part of an overall $155.9 million market top ten.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 15 % Change from Last Wknd
Rampage Warner Bros. / New Line $36,500,000 $36,500,000 NEW
A Quiet Place Paramount $28,500,000 $94,700,000 -43%
Ready Player One Warner Bros. $14,200,000 $117,600,000 -42%
Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare Universal $13,500,000 $13,500,000 NEW
Blockers Universal $12,000,000 $39,000,000 -41%
Isle of Dogs Fox Searchlight $6,500,000 $20,000,000 43%
I Can Only Imagine Roadside Attractions $5,300,000 $76,700,000 -32%
Black Panther Disney / Marvel $5,000,000 $673,400,000 -43%
Tyler Perry’s Acrimony Lionsgate $4,200,000 $38,300,000 -50%
Sherlock Gnomes Paramount $3,600,000 $38,500,000 -34%
Shawn Robbins

5 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Ben April 11, 2018

    A Quiet Place I expect a 25-30% drop maybe a mid thirties but I don’t see it dropping in the forties with all the buzz, basically I can see it hitting number one again

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ed April 12, 2018

      I will say no

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Marc5 April 12, 2018

    I agree, Ben. Just looking at the dailies, it is averaging roughly 4.5 million dollars a day during the week. So, Friday, along with the rest of the weekend will be huge. Friday will probably be somewhere between 12 -15 million and the weekend total between 36- 40 million. A QUIET PLACE could easily repeat at number one. RAMPAGE looks iffy. How many times can you watch The Rock save some big city from catastrophic disaster before it becomes mundane? Plus giant, mutated animals attacking the world has gotten played out, (PACIFIC RIM 2).

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Dre April 12, 2018

    Rampage tops $40 million this weekend…but I agree that A Quiet Place and its word of mouth should translate into a mid to low thirties percentage drop to around $31-33 million.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Delfra April 13, 2018

    I think you’re a good million under on you’re prediction for Black Panther, it’s not going to drop 43% lol. I think BP will make between $6-$6.5 million this weekend. Still putting those lowballing numbers out I see, over and over every single week and you still don’t learn lol. “A Quiet Place” prediction is a little low too, it will probably make around $30-$33 million this weekend.

    Reply

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