Weekend Forecast: Could ‘Death Wish’ Upset ‘Red Sparrow’ For Second Behind the Surging ‘Black Panther’?

The first weekend of March will see the wide release of two new films, all while Marvel’s latest blockbuster looks to continue its reign atop the box office during Oscar weekend.

PROS:

  • Death Wish has consistently trended upward in recent weeks as its marketing campaign has taken effect, driving strong interest from older male audiences — a crowd that pushed several films to over-perform against expectations earlier this year with the likes of 12 StrongDen of Thieves, and The Commuter. Facebook activity is nearing 100,000 fans with strong growth in the past ten days, an impressive feat for a non-major studio title. Traditional tracking shows overall interest not far behind the levels of films like The Accountant and Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, while Facebook activity is comparable to the former of those two films. The studio expects around mid-teen millions, but the upside for $20 million or more this weekend is definitely on the table.
  • Red Sparrow will aim to marry its source novel’s fan base with that of Jennifer Lawrence’s own following. Social media buzz has been generally healthy as the film’s Twitter activity exceeds that of The Girl on the Train and Atomic Blonde. Adult crowds looking for more serious fare in the wake of the Marvel blockbuster and last week’s successful comedy Game Night will be key to Sparrow‘s prospects this weekend. The film’s range is wider than once expected with what could be a debut anywhere between $16 million and $23 million.
  • Black Panther has beaten expectations two weekends in a row and could do the same again as word of mouth shows little sign of slowing down. Our current range for the phenom’s third weekend extends between $60 million and $70 million, give or take some change. Anything between $55.6 million (Avengers 1) and $68.5 million (Avatar) would give it the third highest third weekend of all-time.

CONS:

  • Between the two new releases, Death Wish may have slightly more upside due to its counter-programming elements and general review-proof nature. Still, Black Panther‘s continued dominance over the market will likely skew all comparisons. Red Sparrow‘s mixed reviews (59 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and the potentially inflated online conversation driven by J-Law fans may work against it as adult audiences continue to spread positive word of mouth about a much lighter and date-friendly option in Game Night, which is showing early signs of strong holding power.

Top 10 Comparisons

Boxoffice forecasts this weekend’s top ten films will accumulate around $141 million, which would represent a 16 percent decline from the same weekend last year when Logan shredded a mighty $88.4 million opening weekend, Get Out secured a stellar $28.2 million second weekend, and The Shack tallied a $16.2 million debut as part of an overall $168 million top ten frame that kick-started a record-breaking March at the box office.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 4 % Change from Last Wknd
Black Panther Disney / Marvel $67,000,000 $503,100,000 -40%
Death Wish MGM $19,500,000 $19,500,000 NEW
Red Sparrow Fox $19,000,000 $19,000,000 NEW
Game Night Warner Bros. / New Line $10,700,000 $33,200,000 -37%
Peter Rabbit Sony / Columbia $8,900,000 $82,900,000 -30%
Annihilation Paramount $5,300,000 $20,400,000 -52%
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia $3,900,000 $392,500,000 -31%
Fifty Shades Freed Universal $3,200,000 $95,500,000 -55%
The Greatest Showman Fox $2,500,000 $164,400,000 -27%
The 15:17 to Paris Warner Bros. $1,800,000 $35,200,000 -49%
Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Zooms February 28, 2018

    Wow

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Orlando February 28, 2018

    That’s a pretty good prediction for “Black Panther” this weekend and yet I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up making $10 million or so more than that this weekend. I was thinking BP would make between $55-$60 million this weekend, but I have a feeling that would just be lowballing and underestimating this film yet again. I have a feeling early weekend projections on Friday afternoon might say $55-$60M, but as the weekend goes along that projection will likely rise to $65-$75 million. I really think BP could end up making as much as $80 million this weekend, so i’ll say $65-$75 million this weekend. This is one of those rare monster sized films like the first Avengers, Jurassic World and The Force Awakens that have movie audiences entranced and comic back to see it again and again. Not only do I think reaching $600 million domestic at this point is pretty much a sure thing but I think reaching $700 million domestic is possible, especially if it can reach at least $65-$70 million this weekend. I’m starting to think that BP might reach a domestic amount that even “Infinity War” won’t be able to top.. IW will certainly make more money internationally and overseas, but I think domestic is a different story.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Peter March 01, 2018

      It’s doing slower busienss now than Jurassic World, though, and that movie couldn’t reach $700 million domestic.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Peter March 01, 2018

        Ugh. Business, not busienss.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Charles March 01, 2018

        I don’t agree that it’s doing slower business than Jurassic World. Jurassic World is getting a boost because of the June vs Feb. weekday numbers. But, BP won the 2nd weekend and looks win the 3rd. If the above projections hold BP would win $67M to JW’s $54M for the 3rd weekend. JW was at $500.3M after that 3rd weekend. BP would be at $503M. Similarly to last week, BP went into the weekend trailing JW (again, summer weekday advantage) and finished the weekend ahead of JW’s overall pace. So, just because at this very moment (3-01-2018) BP is behind JW’s pace, doesn’t mean it can’t surpass it’s total. $700M domestic is a tall order. I don’t know if BP can reach that total, but I think Jurassic World’s total is very doable for Black Panther.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Orlando March 01, 2018

        Peter you’re missing one important obvious factor. BP is only doing slower business than “Jurassic World” through the weekdays and the reason for that is because “Jurassic World” played during the summer when kids are out of school, so it stands to reason it would make more money than BP during the weekdays where kids are in school this time of year. The REAL story will be told this weekend and if BP reaches it’s projections of $65-$75 million this weekend, that amount will be well above Jurassic World’s $54 million during it’s third weekend and should that happen that should more than keep BP on pace to reach $650-$700 million domestic by the end of it’s box office run.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jeff March 02, 2018

          I think that Jurassic world was more front loaded film and with very good word of mouth bp can top the avengers for the biggest superhero movie domestically and maybe even top Jurassic world. I predict a domestic gross of 635 million. Over the avengers but just shy of jw. Plus its almost a fact that it will cross a billion world wide and probably get in the low 1.2 billion with iron amn 3

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Peter March 02, 2018

          There’s a marked difference, though, between reaching ‘$650 to $700 million’ and actually breaking the $700 million barrier. I absolutely agree Black Panther can match or pass Jurassic World, but I’m not so sure it can pass it by an additional $50 million.

          Reply
  3. Avatar
    Watcher March 01, 2018

    Probably looking at $650 final domestic…crazy. Bring on Infinity War !!!!

    Reply

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