Weekend Forecast (Updated): ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Targets Big Holdover Frame Versus Openers ‘Overboard,’ ‘Bad Samaritan,’ & ‘Tully’
Thursday PM / Friday AM Update: Infinity War‘s midweek performance continues to trend above comparable Marvel titles as it has earned an estimated $338.4 million domestically through Thursday. As cautioned with our earlier report, midweek trends don’t always carry over to the following weekend (a fact Marvel films themselves have been susceptible to), but the chances of claiming the second best sophomore weekend in history have certainly improved over the last two days — and now appear very likely.
Our final pre-weekend Infinity War models project a second weekend range between $110 million and $135 million.
Official Friday estimates and weekend projections to follow.
Avengers: Infinity War is set to easily lead the box office again coming off its all-time record weekend of $257.7 million. The Marvel epic has amassed $305.8 million in its first five days of release, standing as the second highest five-day total in history behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ $325.4 million.
As Infinity War continues to build more piles of cash, the film is on course for one of the best second weekends in history. Force Awakens‘ record $149.2 million is probably off the table, but Black Panther‘s runner-up $111.7 million and Jurassic World‘s third place $106.6 million are certainly within reach.
It’s important to keep in mind, though, that Marvel sequels — as with most franchises — are typically more frontloaded than origin stories. For example, both Iron Man sequels, Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Captain America: Civil War each dropped more than 58 percent in their respective second weekends. A similar drop for Infinity War would lead to a (still incredible) second frame slightly below Panther‘s.
On the optimistic end, Thor: Ragnarok (-53.5 percent) holds the lowest second weekend drop among the MCU’s direct sequels. Marvel’s first Avengers film notably dropped just 50.3 percent in its second weekend six years ago.
Ultimately, Infinity War has shown early signs of slightly stronger holding power than predecessors like Civil War and Age of Ultron, so it remains to be seen how long-term performance balances out against the limited micro trends we’ve seen in early days thus far. Monday attendance marked clear indicators of spillover business from the weekend, which muddies the waters in terms of extrapolating how midweek business will then lead into Friday. The film’s cliffhanging nature could also deter the kind of strong repeat family business that drove films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Avengers 1.
Our current Infinity War models project a second weekend range between $104 million and $128 million.
Meanwhile, Overboard is tracking well as a counter-programmer this weekend thanks to Anna Faris and Latino star Eugenio Derbez’s fans. The remake could be a healthy attraction for those seeking a breather from the blockbuster action leading the box office. Tully and Bad Samaritan also open in wide-to-semi-wide release this weekend.
In general, the limited influx of competition this weekend should translate to generally strong holds by most films already in the market.
Top 10 Comparisons
Boxoffice estimates this weekend’s top ten films will tally around $155.5 million or more. That would represent a 16 percent decrease from the same weekend last year when Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opened to $146.5 million atop the box office as part of an overall $184.4 million top ten frame.
|Film||Distributor||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 6||% Change from Last Wknd|
|Avengers: Infinity War||Disney / Marvel||$111,000,000||$444,600,000||-57%|
|A Quiet Place||Paramount||$7,900,000||$160,200,000||-28%|
|I Feel Pretty||STX||$5,400,000||$38,300,000||-34%|
|Rampage||Warner Bros. / New Line||$4,500,000||$84,600,000||-38%|
|Black Panther||Disney / Marvel||$3,000,000||$693,300,000||-36%|
|Bad Samaritan||Electric Entertainment||$1,900,000||$1,900,000||NEW|
|Ready Player One||Warner Bros.||$1,800,000||$133,700,000||-29%|