Weekend Forecast (Updated): ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ Targets Big Holdover Frame Versus Openers ‘Overboard,’ ‘Bad Samaritan,’ & ‘Tully’

Thursday PM / Friday AM Update: Infinity War‘s midweek performance continues to trend above comparable Marvel titles as it has earned an estimated $338.4 million domestically through Thursday. As cautioned with our earlier report, midweek trends don’t always carry over to the following weekend (a fact Marvel films themselves have been susceptible to), but the chances of claiming the second best sophomore weekend in history have certainly improved over the last two days — and now appear very likely.

Our final pre-weekend Infinity War models project a second weekend range between $110 million and $135 million.

Official Friday estimates and weekend projections to follow.

===

Avengers: Infinity War is set to easily lead the box office again coming off its all-time record weekend of $257.7 million. The Marvel epic has amassed $305.8 million in its first five days of release, standing as the second highest five-day total in history behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ $325.4 million.

As Infinity War continues to build more piles of cash, the film is on course for one of the best second weekends in history. Force Awakens‘ record $149.2 million is probably off the table, but Black Panther‘s runner-up $111.7 million and Jurassic World‘s third place $106.6 million are certainly within reach.

It’s important to keep in mind, though, that Marvel sequels — as with most franchises — are typically more frontloaded than origin stories. For example, both Iron Man sequels, Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Captain America: Civil War each dropped more than 58 percent in their respective second weekends. A similar drop for Infinity War would lead to a (still incredible) second frame slightly below Panther‘s.

On the optimistic end, Thor: Ragnarok (-53.5 percent) holds the lowest second weekend drop among the MCU’s direct sequels. Marvel’s first Avengers film notably dropped just 50.3 percent in its second weekend six years ago.

Ultimately, Infinity War has shown early signs of slightly stronger holding power than predecessors like Civil War and Age of Ultron, so it remains to be seen how long-term performance balances out against the limited micro trends we’ve seen in early days thus far. Monday attendance marked clear indicators of spillover business from the weekend, which muddies the waters in terms of extrapolating how midweek business will then lead into Friday. The film’s cliffhanging nature could also deter the kind of strong repeat family business that drove films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Avengers 1.

Our current Infinity War models project a second weekend range between $104 million and $128 million.

Meanwhile, Overboard is tracking well as a counter-programmer this weekend thanks to Anna Faris and Latino star Eugenio Derbez’s fans. The remake could be a healthy attraction for those seeking a breather from the blockbuster action leading the box office. Tully and Bad Samaritan also open in wide-to-semi-wide release this weekend.

In general, the limited influx of competition this weekend should translate to generally strong holds by most films already in the market.

Top 10 Comparisons

Boxoffice estimates this weekend’s top ten films will tally around $155.5 million or more. That would represent a 16 percent decrease from the same weekend last year when Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opened to $146.5 million atop the box office as part of an overall $184.4 million top ten frame.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 6 % Change from Last Wknd
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $111,000,000 $444,600,000 -57%
Overboard Pantelion $14,000,000 $14,000,000 NEW
A Quiet Place Paramount $7,900,000 $160,200,000 -28%
I Feel Pretty STX $5,400,000 $38,300,000 -34%
Rampage Warner Bros. / New Line $4,500,000 $84,600,000 -38%
Tully Focus Features $3,900,000 $3,900,000 NEW
Black Panther Disney / Marvel $3,000,000 $693,300,000 -36%
Blockers Universal $2,100,000 $56,600,000 -28%
Bad Samaritan Electric Entertainment $1,900,000 $1,900,000 NEW
Ready Player One Warner Bros. $1,800,000 $133,700,000 -29%
Shawn Robbins

19 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Jacen May 02, 2018

    Infinity War does not end on a cliffhanger. Thanos is arguably the film’s protagonist, as he has more screen time (and a lot of references to him when not on screen) than any other single character. A villain, sure, but still the protagonist. He succeeds in his goals; he wins after great personal loss and final act struggle and conflict. Sure, our heroes lose, but that doesn’t make for a cliffhanger. Do you call it a cliffhanger if your team loses the championship? The ending is downbeat, but it is a complete ending.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Charles May 02, 2018

      Completely agree. Well stated, Jacen.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Dax May 02, 2018

      Bingo

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jbone May 02, 2018

      And when they all comeback to life in part 2 to defeat Thanos, you’ll still call part 1 not a cliffhanger? Remember this was going to be called Part 1 of a 2 part movie. Disney changed the name but this was cliffhanger ending.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Everton May 02, 2018

        Yes. Because as he clearly said. It was Thanos’ story. He won. The end. Not everyone’s coming back. It isn’t presented as a film from The heroes’ POV, Thanos is the hero and he saves the Universe by killing half of it. It ends with him relaxing, gining up his warlord days, Job done. It even says Thanos will Return.

        That’s how the film is presented, some will see it as you do,others as it was told and as we do.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Wildcat May 03, 2018

        Infinity War is still its own movie. The directors have stated how the sequel will be tonally different than Infinity War. That’s the reason why they got rid of part 1 and part 2.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        callum traynor May 03, 2018

        It was obviously a cliff hanger when they will most likely comeback again.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jacen May 03, 2018

          This is comics. Of COURSE they will come back (phrasal verb, not comeback, a noun). Bucky’s alive, Uncle Ben is too (in an alternate universe) and so is Gwen Stacy (Spider-Gwen plus clones and other alternate universe versions). No one stays dead for long in comics.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Jacen May 03, 2018

        Yes, because Thanos is the protagonist of this particular story. If we reason that the sequel’s reversal of fortune causes this to be a cliffhanger, then we must likewise say that of Star Wars and The Empire Strikes Back. In Star Wars, Luke and the rebels are triumphant; in Empire, they get their buttocks handed to them. Yet people wrongly say Empire has no third act or no ending etc. There WAS an ending: our team got blown out in the Finals. Thanks, come back next year. In the case of Infinity War, it was a close seven game series, but ultimately Team Thanos goes home with the trophy, and Team Avengers must reconfigure their lineup. (Further example: The central character/hero of The Godfather is Michael Corleone. By the end of the first film, he is at least a hero to his family if otherwise corrupt, while the second ends with him being evil. The third reverses that as he attempts to redeem himself. Is Godfather Two now a cliffhanger ending? Of course not, especially since 16 years passed before Three came out.)

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Everton May 02, 2018

      Spot on mate.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      MM May 03, 2018

      yup

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    george May 02, 2018

    Cliffhanger or not Infinity war is the best MCU film no matter how much it declines in second weekend.Ideally it would decline 50% or less but we will see.57% is possible but something this film doesn’t deserve.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Orlando May 02, 2018

      @george – That’s a matter of opinion, Infinity War is good but it’s not the best MCU film to me. As far as scale and the sheer size of it IW is beyond any CBM I’ve seen before. But as far as story, structure and plot goes I’ve seen better. Still a damn good film though.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        MM May 03, 2018

        I thought the structure was amazing and it is not a standalone movie, even though the studio tried to claim that way. It’s an event movie, it is a third act of a movie for several stories from before. It has much more impact on a devoted fan than a casual viewer that I’m not 100% sure it’s fair talking about plot or character development as some critics do. It’s not that kind of a movie.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      justineB May 03, 2018

      Not even close. Iron Manand Winter Soldier are better.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    ShellyMan May 02, 2018

    Meh, I’m predicting $120million + on its second weekend. The word of mouth for this movie is so strong! That would be a 45-50% drop.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Poopyhead Jerry May 02, 2018

    Really hope that Black Panther reaches 700$ million.

    I didn’t see it, but I’d just hate to see a film get so close and miss that milestone…

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    MM May 03, 2018

    I am not sure about the prediction. The word of mouth is generally much better than with Force Awakens and (the surprisingly low Metacritic score aside), this movie is an event as well as Force Awakens was but to me, people tend to like it more and especially, they want to talk about it and watch it several times…much more than with Star Wars. It won’t beat Force Awakens this weekend most probably (and definitely not in the long run) especially because of the April timing going against Christmas but 111 mil. is too low and I’m gonna be optimistic and say it’s gonna be closer to 140…also, time to watch it again for a third time 🙂

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Eugene A Lee May 03, 2018

    Its not really a cliff hanger, Thanos won. Even if part 2 he loses. Its a complete story

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *