Weekend Forecast (Updated): The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity

January 25 Update: Neither of this weekend’s new releases held Thursday night screenings, but we’re offering a brief update to our original forecast with confirmed theater counts for Oscar candidates now available.

Among these expansions, we expect only Green Book will see enough of an increase to crack the weekend top ten (again) with a forecast of $5 million+. This means our top ten forecast increases to approximately $76.4 million, up from $71 million previously. This projection and the forecast chart below have been updated to reflect these changes.

  • BlacKkKlansman remains in 171 locations
  • Black Panther remains out of theatrical release
  • Bohemian Rhapsody expands to 1,423 locations
  • The Favourite expands to 1,540 locations
  • Green Book expands to 2,426 locations
  • Roma remains out of theatrical release
  • A Star Is Born expands to 1,192 locations
  • Vice expands to 1,557 locations

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January 23 Report: Following MLK weekend, the box office is settling in for a quiet two weekends as the heart of winter strikes and the reality of a slim release schedule takes hold before Super Bowl weekend. Despite coming off a slightly inflated holiday weekend, the coming frame could easily see a number of holdovers remain sturdy due to the lack of new, high profile market entrants.

This weekend will see the release of Fox’s The Kid Who Would Be King, which hopes to debut in the top three with appeal to tweens and family audiences. Tracking and Trailer Impact metrics position the Joe Cornish-helmed fantasy/adventure film for an opening weekend north of $7 million, witha shot at reaching $10 million or slightly more given the relative lack of recent competition for the target younger audience. The film’s positive reviews could additionally encourage parental interest.

Aviron’s Serenity is also on deck with stars Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway driving the bulk of interest from prospective adult moviegoers. As some Oscar nominees are expected to benefit from this week’s nominations, though, a modest opening frame in the mid-single-digit millions looks to be in store.

Meanwhile, Glass will be aiming to repeat at the top of the box office after its $40.3 million opening last weekend, and The Upside should continue to display legs as word of mouth remains a strength for the Kevin Hart-Bryan Cranston dramedy.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn an estimated $76.4 million, down a projected 25 percent from the comparable weekend last year when Maze Runner: The Death Cure and Hostiles opened wide as part of a $102.5 million top ten weekend.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 27 % Change from Last Wknd
Glass Universal $17,400,000 $71,800,000 -57%
The Upside STX $10,800,000 $61,900,000 -28%
The Kid Who Would Be King Fox $10,000,000 $10,000,000 NEW
Aquaman Warner Bros. $6,100,000 $315,200,000 -40%
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $6,000,000 $168,900,000 -21%
Serenity Aviron $5,500,000 $5,500,000 NEW
Green Book Universal $5,000,000 $48,600,000 132%
A Dog’s Way Home Sony / Columbia $4,900,000 $30,700,000 -32%
Dragon Ball Super: Broly FUNinmation Films $4,000,000 $27,400,000 -59%
Mary Poppins Returns Disney $3,400,000 $165,200,000 -35%
Escape Room Sony / Columbia $3,300,000 $46,900,000 -41%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.


Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Shawn Robbins

14 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Jinx January 23, 2019

    I’m no math wiz but I’m pretty sure 17mil down from 71mil is more than 57%????

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Peter January 23, 2019

      It’s 57% down from its opening weekend, which was nowhere near $71 million. That $71 million is the forecast total after this coming weekend.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        night walker January 24, 2019

        the $71 million is the total domestic box office by the end of this weekend. Glass only opened with a little over $40.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      TTVOMJ January 23, 2019

      Where did you come up with 71mil?0.0

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Zach January 23, 2019

      No kidding, genius.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      RussVB January 24, 2019

      Jinx, don’t post while drunk dude. (btdt)

      Reply
    • Avatar
      BDTrooper January 24, 2019

      You certainly got that first part right.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Seb January 24, 2019

        lol

        Reply
      • Avatar
        Brian January 26, 2019

        hahahahah

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Laura January 25, 2019

      He’s just being sarcastic guys

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    malick January 24, 2019

    glass uumhh sharp decline isn’t it

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Hermione January 24, 2019

    I am pretty sure the likes of Green Book, The Favourite and maybe even Bohemian Rhapsody will break top 10 this weekend.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    T January 24, 2019

    I’m no wizard of calculation but I’m fairly positive 6.1 mil down from 315.2 mil is more than 40%?????????

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Orlando January 25, 2019

    I think “Dragon Ball Super: Broly” will be past $27.4 million by the end of this weekend, it should be around $30m by Sunday.

    Reply

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