Weekend Forecast: Will ‘Transformers: The Last Knight’ Dethrone ‘Cars 3’ & ‘Wonder Woman’?

This weekend sees one lone opener as we enter the final third of June and approach the end of 2017’s second quarter. Our final analysis for the fifth Transformers film:

Transformers: The Last Knight
Paramount

PROS:

  • Having earned over $1.3 billion domestically from four films, the franchise remains a healthy draw for male audiences — particularly among younger crowds and older fans.
  • The lack of breakout male-targeted hits this June leaves some market space open for this.
  • With over 33 million Facebook fans, the franchise remains one of the hottest social media drivers among modern cinematic series.
  • The return of Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Josh Duhamel’s characters could entice loyal fans to return for the fifth helping.
  • Overseas interest in the franchise continues to bolster the studio’s overall outlook for the series.

CONS:

  • Not surprisingly, critical reviews are in the cellar with a 16 percent score as of this writing.
  • The franchise has declined in domestic revenues with its last two films, and we fully expect that to continue here as fatigue becomes a bigger factor.
  • Although Michael Bay has a significant fan base, there’s a distinct desire among fans to see someone else’s vision of this franchise get a chance after five films.
  • Competition from Cars 3 could further limit appeal to young male audiences this weekend.

Our top ten forecast:

Title Distributor Weekend Domestic Total through Sunday, June 25 % Change
Transformers: The Last Knight Paramount $46,000,000 $73,000,000 NEW
Cars 3 Disney $29,000,000 $103,500,000 -46.00%
Wonder Woman Warner Bros. $28,900,000 $322,250,000 -30.00%
All Eyez on Me Lionsgate/Summit $9,250,000 $43,650,000 -65.00%
The Mummy (2017) Universal $7,260,000 $70,410,000 -50.00%
47 Meters Down Entertainment Studios $5,830,000 $22,610,000 -48.00%
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Disney $5,830,000 $160,510,000 -35.00%
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox $4,310,000 $65,600,000 -40.00%
Rough Night Sony / Columbia $4,100,000 $15,260,000 -49.00%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Disney $3,550,000 $380,810,000 -30.00%

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

11 Comments

  1. Avatar
    J June 21, 2017

    Why is the title a rhetorical question?

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Paul June 21, 2017

    So Transformers 5 will finish arround $150M- $160M?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Taylor June 21, 2017

      It could have a hard time reaching even that considering the competition it is facing from SPIDERMAN; HOMECOMING and WAR OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, etc. Its five-day weekend will probably be less that what this site predict with around $60-65 million according to early estimates from VARIETY & DEADLINE.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jacen June 21, 2017

        If only TrashFarmers could severely underperform ala The Mummy and thus end up with a 3rd place debut…
        I don’t know what the studio would make of that going forward, but it would be an amusing result.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS June 22, 2017

      According to Deadline, it might actually just make it to $63-65M over five days, so a total of $130-140M seems more likely. But it should get to $900M+ globally due to overseas box office.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Red_Kal June 22, 2017

    The Last Knight’s opening 5-day weekend will be the same amount as Revenge of the Fallen’s opening single day. I’m really happy this franchise has finally bit the dust…at least in North America.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Red_Kal June 22, 2017

      Also, looks like Wonder Woman has a legitimate shot at $400 million, making it the highest earner of the summer.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Muhammad Suhaib Waqar Joyia June 22, 2017

        Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is also heading towards $400+ million according to the extremely small weekend and weekly drops.
        WW probably won’t be the highest earner of the summer domestically.

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    J.J June 22, 2017

    Just a small but quick thing, having seen the movie Stanley Tucci actually plays someone completely different in this one so his original character doesn’t return.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Look4fresh June 22, 2017

    Tired, boring and non-inventive. Tv shows get like this after 3 or 4 seasons. Do they not get it? Oh look! Bad Boys, more Marvel, more Star Wars, more Indiana Jones, more Mission Deplorable ….

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    J June 23, 2017

    Yeah…I’m not sure if Pirates will get to 5 million this week. With all the bad Depp press and feelings toward him, it might have a big drop this weekend. Why Depp why? I defended you after all the allegations but I can’t now. I still want Pirates to make a lot of money though but it’s hard to support someone who doesn’t make it easy to support them.

    Reply

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