Weekend Forecast: ‘Winchester’ Likely to Scare Up $8-10M Over Deflated Super Bowl Weekend

The typical Super Bowl weekend lull is upon us as only one new release will brave the market this weekend. Studio expectations from Lionsgate and CBS have Winchester pegged for a debut between $6 million and $8 million. Various factors certainly put that range in play, although we think the teen-friendly PG-13 rating and relative lack of direct competition could help it climb slightly higher. That said, we’ve lowered our forecast from previous long range reports due to stalled social media buzz — an area where the horror genre has been known to not pick up steam until mere days before release for an original film.

Ultimately, though, we believe Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has a solid chance at returning to the top spot of the box office as its phenomenal run continues, although Maze Runner: The Death Cure might not be too far behind in its second frame. Male-driven films will be the most vulnerable over the weekend, particularly on Super Bowl Sunday, when films commonly decline anywhere between 55 and 70 percent from Saturday business.

Check out our current weekend forecast for key titles in the chart below, followed by reporting updates throughout the weekend.

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 4 % Change from Last Wknd
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia $11,300,000 $353,000,000 -30%
Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox $10,700,000 $40,800,000 -56%
Winchester Lionsgate / CBS Films $8,500,000 $8,500,000 NEW
The Greatest Showman Fox $7,300,000 $137,000,000 -24%
The Post Fox $6,200,000 $68,300,000 -32%
Hostiles Entertainment Studios $6,000,000 $21,900,000 -40%
The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $4,600,000 $45,200,000 -23%
12 Strong Warner Bros. $4,000,000 $36,500,000 -54%
Den of Thieves STX $3,900,000 $35,400,000 -55%
Paddington 2 Warner Bros. $3,800,000 $37,200,000 -33%
Star Wars: The Last Jedi Disney / Lucasfilm $2,300,000 $614,400,000 -46%
Boxoffice Staff

3 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Reece January 31, 2018

    For a comparison, I think Shape of Water will gross similarly to Sideways did in 2004. Both Fox Searchlight and Oscar contenders, with similar grosses as of now. 70$ million for SoW seems reasonable imo.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    That Guy BoxOffice.com Keeps Blocking January 31, 2018

    If JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE returns to the top, it will become the first film to top its seventh wide-release weekend since AVATAR in 2009.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    J February 01, 2018

    I don’t think Jumanji will beat The Death Cure though it will be close.

    Reply

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