Early Weekend Estimates: ‘Black Panther’ Pacing for Another $65M; ‘Red Sparrow’ Modest w/ $16.5M; ‘Death Wish’ Soft at $11.5M

Saturday Update: Black Panther continues its amazing ride atop the box office, pulling in another $16.304 million on Friday and bringing its domestic cume up to $451.7 million through 15 days of release. That sends it ahead of Shrek 2 ($441.2 million) and The Dark Knight Rises ($448.1 million) to land at 14th place on the all-time domestic chart, with an eye toward passing a handful more films today and tomorrow that should easily bring Panther into the top ten by the end of the weekend (needing to surpassing Finding Dory‘s $486.3 million to do so). The film has also has a shot at eclipsing the $500 million threshold by Sunday’s end.

Through 15 days of play, Black Panther‘s total stands 8 percent ahead of The Avengers ($417.3 million), while just 2 percent behind Jurassic World ($460.5 million) and 7 percent short of Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($483.7 million). Per expectations in our weekend forecast, Boxoffice projects Panther‘s third weekend will land around $65 million based on Friday estimates, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see it come in a little higher.

Debuting in second place yesterday was Fox’s Red Sparrow with $6.025 million. That comes in on the conservative end of expectations for the adaptation, about 15 percent behind Atomic Blonde‘s opening day ($7.1 million) and 35 percent less than The Girl on the Train‘s $9.3 million. The adult-targeted thriller will hope to find some footing throughout the weekend, although reviews and early word of mouth are mixed. The studio projects a $17.5 million weekend, while Boxoffice is a bit more cautious at $16.5 million.

MGM’s Death Wish remake starring Bruce Willis fell short of expectations in its Friday launch with $4.275 million, about 26 percent behind the $5.78 million opening day of American Assassin. The remake had been tracking very well by traditional industry numbers and even Facebook activity leading up to release with metrics similar to those of The Accountant and Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, giving reason to suspect it could over-perform this weekend as several adult male-oriented films have so far this year. Unfortunately, poor critical reviews, the continued momentum of Black Panther‘s appeal to all audiences, and what may simply have been poor timing given the current cultural debate about gun control worked against the film’s box office potential. Boxoffice projects an $11.5 million opening weekend at this time.

Game Night held well with just a 46 percent drop from opening day last weekend to $3.035 million yesterday, giving it $25.86 million through eight days. The comedy continues to build a case for staying power as it aims for a sophomore frame close to $10 million.

Meanwhile, Peter Rabbit rounded out the top five with another $2.075 million and an updated cume of $76.1 million. Sony projects the film will net $8.75 million this weekend, while Boxoffice is a bit more optimistic with a $9.3 million estimate.

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for continued updates on all key daily grosses. Early weekend estimates are in the chart below with updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

For media requests, please contact Shawn Robbins.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAR. 2 – SUN, MAR. 4

 

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $65,000,000 -42% 4,084 64 $15,916 $500,400,037 3 Disney
2 Red Sparrow $16,500,000 3,056 $5,399 $16,500,000 1 20th Century Fox
3 Death Wish $11,500,000 2,847 $4,039 $11,500,000 1 MGM
4 Game Night $9,800,000 -42% 3,502 14 $2,798 $32,627,766 2 Warner Bros.
5 Peter Rabbit $9,300,000 -27% 3,607 -100 $2,578 $83,360,376 4 Sony / Columbia
6 Annihilation $5,100,000 -54% 2,112 100 $2,415 $20,086,742 2 Paramount Pictures
7 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $4,300,000 -24% 2,313 -206 $1,859 $393,001,353 11 Sony / Columbia
8 Fifty Shades Freed $3,200,000 -55% 2,614 -651 $1,224 $95,489,460 4 Universal
9 The Greatest Showman $2,700,000 -21% 1,407 -194 $1,919 $164,641,443 11 Fox
10 Every Day $1,500,000 -50% 1,669 2 $899 $1,500,000 2 Orion Pictures
11 The 15:17 to Paris $1,500,000 -58% 1,803 -949 $832 $35,048,216 4 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Shape of Water $1,300,000 10% 832 111 $1,563 $57,293,976 14 Fox Searchlight
2 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $1,200,000 -4% 770 79 $1,558 $51,970,189 21 Fox Searchlight
3 The Post $950,000 -23% 671 -124 $1,416 $80,404,969 11 20th Century Fox
4 Phantom Thread $660,000 -24% 715 64 $923 $20,194,164 10 Focus Features
5 Darkest Hour $610,000 -18% 913 118 $668 $55,464,217 15 Focus Features
6 Winchester $500,000 -46% 576 -276 $868 $24,528,838 5 Lionsgate / CBS Films
7 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $450,000 -53% 543 -409 $829 $57,074,211 6 Fox
8 Early Man $430,000 -76% 897 -1597 $479 $7,682,449 3 Lionsgate
9 Coco $350,000 -25% 235 -31 $1,489 $208,502,719 15 Disney
10 Samson $290,000 -70% 434 -706 $668 $4,422,089 3 Pure Flix
11 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $270,000 -23% 221 -71 $1,222 $619,133,636 12 Disney
12 Hostiles $170,000 -51% 251 -167 $677 $29,476,340 11 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
13 Thor: Ragnarok $140,000 2% 110 -21 $1,273 $314,987,245 18 Disney
14 Wonder (2017) $130,000 -23% 150 -8 $867 $132,130,170 16 Lionsgate
15 The Commuter $80,000 -29% 112 -26 $714 $36,246,300 8 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 La Boda de Valentina $100,000 -56% 95 -46 $1,053 $2,680,608 4 Lionsgate / Pantelion
2 Monster Hunt 2 $30,000 -70% 20 -35 $1,500 $679,148 3 Lionsgate

===

Friday Report: Fox’s Red Sparrow landed an expected $1.2 million from Thursday night’s first shows, representing a solid start for the Jennifer Lawrence adaptation. By comparison, that’s in line with the $1.23 million start of The Girl on the Train, while coming in slightly behind the $1.5 million of Atomic Blonde last summer and Ghost in the Shell‘s $1.8 million last spring.

Death Wish opened a bit below expectations with a reported $650,000, below the threshold of American Assassin‘s $920,000 and John Wick‘s $870,000. The film could prove to be a strong matinee player over the weekend with no significant rush-level demand heading into release, but we’ll have further projections and analysis once the complete Friday number is in.

Meanwhile, Black Panther added $6.6 million domestically on Thursday to bring its 14-day cume to $435.4 million. That pushes it past E.T. ($435 million) to become the 16th highest grossing film of all-time in North America. The film remains on course for a third weekend in first place that should land between $60-70 million.

Official Friday estimates and key weekend estimates to follow on Saturday.

Boxoffice Staff

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    Delfra March 03, 2018

    A very solid prediction on Black Panther and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up making more than that weekend. I think Avatar’s second best ever third weekend gross of $68.5 million is within reach of BP. It might not make it there but the way this film has been performing I wouldn’t count it out either.

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