Early Weekend Estimates: ‘Black Panther’ Pacing for Another $65M; ‘Red Sparrow’ Modest w/ $16.5M; ‘Death Wish’ Soft at $11.5M
Saturday Update: Black Panther continues its amazing ride atop the box office, pulling in another $16.304 million on Friday and bringing its domestic cume up to $451.7 million through 15 days of release. That sends it ahead of Shrek 2 ($441.2 million) and The Dark Knight Rises ($448.1 million) to land at 14th place on the all-time domestic chart, with an eye toward passing a handful more films today and tomorrow that should easily bring Panther into the top ten by the end of the weekend (needing to surpassing Finding Dory‘s $486.3 million to do so). The film has also has a shot at eclipsing the $500 million threshold by Sunday’s end.
Through 15 days of play, Black Panther‘s total stands 8 percent ahead of The Avengers ($417.3 million), while just 2 percent behind Jurassic World ($460.5 million) and 7 percent short of Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($483.7 million). Per expectations in our weekend forecast, Boxoffice projects Panther‘s third weekend will land around $65 million based on Friday estimates, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see it come in a little higher.
Debuting in second place yesterday was Fox’s Red Sparrow with $6.025 million. That comes in on the conservative end of expectations for the adaptation, about 15 percent behind Atomic Blonde‘s opening day ($7.1 million) and 35 percent less than The Girl on the Train‘s $9.3 million. The adult-targeted thriller will hope to find some footing throughout the weekend, although reviews and early word of mouth are mixed. The studio projects a $17.5 million weekend, while Boxoffice is a bit more cautious at $16.5 million.
MGM’s Death Wish remake starring Bruce Willis fell short of expectations in its Friday launch with $4.275 million, about 26 percent behind the $5.78 million opening day of American Assassin. The remake had been tracking very well by traditional industry numbers and even Facebook activity leading up to release with metrics similar to those of The Accountant and Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, giving reason to suspect it could over-perform this weekend as several adult male-oriented films have so far this year. Unfortunately, poor critical reviews, the continued momentum of Black Panther‘s appeal to all audiences, and what may simply have been poor timing given the current cultural debate about gun control worked against the film’s box office potential. Boxoffice projects an $11.5 million opening weekend at this time.
Game Night held well with just a 46 percent drop from opening day last weekend to $3.035 million yesterday, giving it $25.86 million through eight days. The comedy continues to build a case for staying power as it aims for a sophomore frame close to $10 million.
Meanwhile, Peter Rabbit rounded out the top five with another $2.075 million and an updated cume of $76.1 million. Sony projects the film will net $8.75 million this weekend, while Boxoffice is a bit more optimistic with a $9.3 million estimate.
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Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAR. 2 – SUN, MAR. 4
|2||Red Sparrow||$16,500,000||—||3,056||—||$5,399||$16,500,000||1||20th Century Fox|
|4||Game Night||$9,800,000||-42%||3,502||14||$2,798||$32,627,766||2||Warner Bros.|
|5||Peter Rabbit||$9,300,000||-27%||3,607||-100||$2,578||$83,360,376||4||Sony / Columbia|
|7||Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle||$4,300,000||-24%||2,313||-206||$1,859||$393,001,353||11||Sony / Columbia|
|8||Fifty Shades Freed||$3,200,000||-55%||2,614||-651||$1,224||$95,489,460||4||Universal|
|9||The Greatest Showman||$2,700,000||-21%||1,407||-194||$1,919||$164,641,443||11||Fox|
|10||Every Day||$1,500,000||-50%||1,669||2||$899||$1,500,000||2||Orion Pictures|
|11||The 15:17 to Paris||$1,500,000||-58%||1,803||-949||$832||$35,048,216||4||Warner Bros.|
|1||The Shape of Water||$1,300,000||10%||832||111||$1,563||$57,293,976||14||Fox Searchlight|
|2||Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||$1,200,000||-4%||770||79||$1,558||$51,970,189||21||Fox Searchlight|
|3||The Post||$950,000||-23%||671||-124||$1,416||$80,404,969||11||20th Century Fox|
|4||Phantom Thread||$660,000||-24%||715||64||$923||$20,194,164||10||Focus Features|
|5||Darkest Hour||$610,000||-18%||913||118||$668||$55,464,217||15||Focus Features|
|6||Winchester||$500,000||-46%||576||-276||$868||$24,528,838||5||Lionsgate / CBS Films|
|7||Maze Runner: The Death Cure||$450,000||-53%||543||-409||$829||$57,074,211||6||Fox|
|11||Star Wars: The Last Jedi||$270,000||-23%||221||-71||$1,222||$619,133,636||12||Disney|
|12||Hostiles||$170,000||-51%||251||-167||$677||$29,476,340||11||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
|1||La Boda de Valentina||$100,000||-56%||95||-46||$1,053||$2,680,608||4||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|2||Monster Hunt 2||$30,000||-70%||20||-35||$1,500||$679,148||3||Lionsgate|
Friday Report: Fox’s Red Sparrow landed an expected $1.2 million from Thursday night’s first shows, representing a solid start for the Jennifer Lawrence adaptation. By comparison, that’s in line with the $1.23 million start of The Girl on the Train, while coming in slightly behind the $1.5 million of Atomic Blonde last summer and Ghost in the Shell‘s $1.8 million last spring.
Death Wish opened a bit below expectations with a reported $650,000, below the threshold of American Assassin‘s $920,000 and John Wick‘s $870,000. The film could prove to be a strong matinee player over the weekend with no significant rush-level demand heading into release, but we’ll have further projections and analysis once the complete Friday number is in.
Meanwhile, Black Panther added $6.6 million domestically on Thursday to bring its 14-day cume to $435.4 million. That pushes it past E.T. ($435 million) to become the 16th highest grossing film of all-time in North America. The film remains on course for a third weekend in first place that should land between $60-70 million.
Official Friday estimates and key weekend estimates to follow on Saturday.