Weekend Estimates: ‘Black Panther’ ($40M) First Since ‘Force Awakens’ with 4 Straight #1 Weekends; ‘A Wrinkle In Time’ Bows to Lukewarm $30M+

'Strangers: Prey at Night' Healthy In Third Place; 'Gringo' & 'The Hurricane Heist' Modest

Saturday Update: Disney’s A Wrinkle In Time bowed to an estimated $10.214 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $1.3 million haul. That gives the film an opening day 5 percent ahead of Tomorrowland ($9.72 million), although it proved more front-loaded to early shows with a 7.85x multiplier from Thursday night to Friday’s overall gross (compared to 13.32x for Tomorrowland). Mixed reviews and modest word of mouth could hinder the run ahead, although family business during matinees on Saturday will be the ultimate test of durability. For now, Boxoffice projects the weekend take will come in around $31 million, slightly below pre-release forecasts.

Still chugging along, Black Panther fell out of first place for the first time in its 22-day run thus far with $9.972 million on Friday — down just 39 percent from last Friday. With $530.85 million earned domestically, the film stands at #9 all-time and will pass both Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($532.2 million) and The Dark Knight ($534.9 million) on Saturday to take over the 7th place position on the non-inflation adjusted chart. A projected $40 million frame and a fourth straight weekend in first place appear to be in store, making Panther the first film since Star Wars: The Force Awakens to achieve the latter feat.

Globally, Black Panther is set to cross the $1 billion threshold on Saturday — the fifth MCU title to do so after The AvengersIron Man 3Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Captain America: Civil War.

Strangers: Prey at Night opened to a respectable $4 million opening day yesterday, setting up for a weekend that could potentially near $10 million.

Red Sparrow and Game Night rounded out the top five with $2.32 million and $2.2 million, respectively.

Also debuting this weekend, Gringo and The Hurricane Heist similarly fell in line with expectations with respective opening days of $977,000 and $950,000.

Early weekend estimates from select studios and our own projections are below. Updated studio estimates will follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAR. 9 – SUN, MAR. 11

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Black Panther $40,000,000 -40% 3,942 -142 $10,147 $560,879,601 4 Disney
2 A Wrinkle in Time $31,000,000 3,980 $7,789 $31,000,000 1 Walt Disney Pictures
3 The Strangers: Prey At Night $10,000,000 2,464 $4,058 $10,000,000 1 Aviron Pictures
4 Red Sparrow $7,900,000 -53% 3,064 8 $2,578 $30,868,743 2 20th Century Fox
5 Game Night $7,600,000 -27% 3,061 -441 $2,483 $44,740,632 3 Warner Bros.
6 Peter Rabbit $6,600,000 -34% 3,112 -495 $2,121 $93,257,806 5 Sony / Columbia
7 Death Wish $5,800,000 -55% 2,882 35 $2,012 $23,075,301 2 MGM
8 Annihilation $3,200,000 -43% 1,709 -403 $1,872 $26,144,514 3 Paramount Pictures
9 The Hurricane Heist $3,000,000 2,402 $1,249 $3,000,000 1 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
10 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $2,800,000 -37% 2,157 -156 $1,298 $397,308,020 12 Sony / Columbia
11 Gringo $2,600,000 2,404 $1,082 $2,600,000 1 STX Entertainment
12 The Shape of Water $2,420,000 64% 1,552 720 $1,559 $61,013,138 15 Fox Searchlight
13 Fifty Shades Freed $1,400,000 -59% 1,357 -1257 $1,032 $98,414,595 5 Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Greatest Showman $1,855,000 -31% 952 -455 $1,949 $167,555,401 12 Fox
2 Thoroughbreds $1,300,000 549 $2,368 $1,300,000 1 Focus Features
3 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $710,000 -45% 552 -218 $1,286 $53,354,562 22 Fox Searchlight
4 The Post $285,000 -73% 278 -393 $1,025 $81,116,256 12 20th Century Fox
5 Coco $268,000 -17% 194 -41 $1,381 $208,854,333 16 Disney
6 Every Day $250,000 -84% 615 -1054 $407 $250,000 3 Orion Pictures
7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $244,000 -3% 246 25 $992 $619,461,731 13 Disney
8 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $180,000 -62% 214 -329 $841 $57,447,200 7 Fox
9 Winchester $160,000 -69% 261 -315 $613 $24,864,023 6 Lionsgate / CBS Films
10 Early Man $130,000 -73% 186 -711 $699 $8,055,359 4 Lionsgate
11 Wonder (2017) $75,000 -19% 138 -12 $543 $132,241,669 17 Lionsgate

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Samson $60,000 -81% 93 -341 $645 $4,615,929 4 Pure Flix
2 Hostiles $52,000 -67% 90 -161 $578 $29,605,024 12 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
3 Thor: Ragnarok $40,000 -66% 70 -40 $571 $315,033,103 19 Disney
4 The Commuter $40,000 -47% 71 -41 $563 $36,316,734 9 Lionsgate
5 La Boda de Valentina $30,000 -71% 45 -50 $667 $2,747,043 5 Lionsgate / Pantelion

===

Friday Report: Disney’s A Wrinkle In Time posted an estimated $1.3 million on Thursday night to kick off opening weekend, according to non-studio sources. That comes in noticeably ahead of Tomorrowland‘s $730,000 Thursday night start back in May 2015, while expectedly falling shy of Cinderella‘s $2.3 million start in March 2015. Projections for the weekend remain in the general $30-40 million range, with our own forecasts holding steady on the lower end of that.

Strangers: Prey at Night took in $610,000 last night, according to distributor Aviron. That’s in line with the $615,000 debut of Winchester last month when it debuted over Super Bowl weekend. A weekend in the upper single digit millions remains likely for the sequel to the 2008 horror film.

Gringo bowed to $190,000 last night, per Amazon Studios reporting. By comparison, The Belko Experiment opened to $310,000 last year.

Thursday night earnings for The Hurricane Heist were not yet reported at the time of publishing.

Meanwhile, Black Panther continued to reign with another $4.2 million on Thursday overall, boosting its domestic cume to $520.8 million. The film has a fair shot to repeat in first place for a fourth straight weekend unless fellow Disney title Wrinkle beats expectations in its debut.

Follow Boxoffice for continued updates throughout the weekend.

Boxoffice Staff

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