Weekend Estimates: ‘Fifty Shades Freed’ ($39M), ‘Peter Rabbit’ ($22M) Post Healthy Debuts; ’15:17 to Paris’ ($12.9M) Modest

Saturday Update: Universal reports this morning that Fifty Shades Freed opened to $18.5 million domestically on Friday, including Thursday night’s $5.6 million haul. That comes in an expected 14 percent behind the $21.45 million opening day of Fifty Shades Darker on this same weekend last year, setting the trilogy finale’s weekend up for a strong first place showing with an estimated $39 million in North America.

Universal also reports that the Fifty Shades franchise officially crossed the $1 billion global mark on Friday thanks to Freed‘s strong worldwide debut. The third film in the series has earned $50.7 million internationally through Friday, with the studio projecting an overall $100 million overseas weekend.

Also coming in strong on Friday was the first day of Peter Rabbit. The live action family film brought in $5.725 million, comping well with the first day of 2015’s first Paddington film ($4.65 million). Boasting an all-star cast and minimal competition for families with young kids in the weeks ahead, Peter Rabbit is poised to enjoy a leggy run at the box office following what is projected to be a $22 million North American opening weekend.

The 15:17 to Paris debuted with $3.73 million on Friday, a modest start compared to director Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper but still generally in line with pre-release expectations. Since the film lacked any Thursday night shows, straight-line comparisons are few at this point, but an early base line could be United 93 as it opened to a $3.7 million first day back in April 2006. Weekend projections for Paris currently stand around $12.9 million.

Meanwhile, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman continued to hold up extraordinarily well despite facing new competition this weekend. The former of the two added $2.205 million on Friday (down just 23 percent from last week) for an updated domestic cume of $358 million as it looks toward another $10 million weekend. The latter — Showman — posted $1.6 million in fifth place (off just 30 percent despite facing the Fifty Shades fan rush), giving it an impressive $141.7 million and a likely weekend around $6.2 million based on Fox’s own projections.

Early weekend estimates are below, to be followed by updated studio estimates on Sunday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Fifty Shades Freed $39,000,000 3,768 $10,350 $39,000,000 1 Universal
2 Peter Rabbit $22,000,000 3,725 $5,906 $22,000,000 1 Sony / Columbia
3 The 15:17 to Paris $12,900,000 3,042 $4,241 $12,900,000 1 Warner Bros.
4 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $10,000,000 -9% 3,136 -216 $3,189 $365,831,871 8 Sony / Columbia
5 The Greatest Showman $6,200,000 -19% 2,373 -215 $2,613 $146,335,870 8 Fox
6 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $5,500,000 -47% 2,923 -870 $1,882 $48,518,129 3 Fox
7 Winchester $4,500,000 -52% 2,480 0 $1,815 $16,627,358 2 Lionsgate / CBS Films
8 The Post $3,300,000 -37% 1,865 -597 $1,769 $72,636,520 8 20th Century Fox
9 Den of Thieves $2,900,000 -36% 1,468 -644 $1,975 $40,971,323 4 STX Entertainment
10 The Shape of Water $2,800,000 -37% 1,780 -561 $1,573 $49,565,691 11 Fox Searchlight
11 Hostiles $2,700,000 -47% 2,214 -720 $1,220 $25,897,468 8 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
12 12 Strong $2,600,000 -45% 1,901 -1017 $1,368 $41,870,179 4 Warner Bros.
13 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $2,000,000 -34% 1,273 -453 $1,571 $45,144,806 18 Fox Searchlight
14 Darkest Hour $1,500,000 -37% 1,045 -441 $1,435 $51,380,092 12 Focus Features
15 Paddington 2 $1,100,000 -66% 1,429 -959 $770 $38,332,364 5 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $1,300,000 -44% 830 -637 $1,566 $616,736,279 9 Disney
2 La Boda de Valentina $1,000,000 331 $3,021 $1,000,000 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion
3 Coco $800,000 -54% 833 -803 $960 $206,086,341 12 Disney
4 The Commuter $570,000 -66% 590 -904 $966 $35,535,864 5 Lionsgate
5 Ferdinand $390,000 -42% 387 -188 $1,008 $81,987,553 9 Fox
6 Wonder (2017) $240,000 2% 261 5 $920 $131,288,350 13 Lionsgate
7 Thor: Ragnarok $210,000 -14% 173 -31 $1,214 $314,301,225 15 Disney
8 Daddy’s Home 2 $70,000 -28% 112 -13 $625 $103,981,869 14 Paramount

===

Friday Report: Fifty Shades Freed took in $5.6 million from last night’s opening shows, which began at 7pm in 3,150 locations, according to Universal. That’s only 2 percent below the $5.72 million earned by last year’s Fifty Shades Darker on the same pre-Valentine’s weekend. That film ended up taking in $21.45 million for Thursday night + Friday combined as part of an overall $46.6 million opening weekend.

While it stands to reason this third and final film in the trilogy could end up slightly more front-loaded — especially with many fans holding off viewing plans until Valentine’s Day on Wednesday — this start bodes well for the film to meet our pre-release expectations of a debut weekend close to $40 million or slightly above.

Meanwhile, no early opening shows were held for Warner Bros.’ The 15:17 to Paris or Sony’s Peter Rabbit. Targeting three very different audiences, it’s widely expected all three new releases will come in atop the weekend box office.

Follow us on Twitter for updated estimates and reports throughout the weekend.

Shawn Robbins

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