MLK Weekend Estimates: ‘Glass’ Cracks $41M/$48M 3-Day/4-Day Start; ‘The Upside’ Holds Strong at $14M/$17M; ‘Aquaman’ Adds $10.9M/$13.6M

Saturday Update: Universal reports Glass debuted with $16 million on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $3.7 million start. That represents the third best-ever opening Friday on MLK weekend, following American Sniper‘s $30.3 million in 2015 and Cloverfield‘s $17.2 million in 2008. It’s also 9 percent ahead of Split‘s $14.6 million first day two years ago.

While Glass somewhat unexpectedly fell victim to poor critics’ reviews ahead of release last week — slowing down a previously bullish tracking pace for a higher debut — this is still a more-than-respectable start for Shyamalan’s trilogy-capper, particularly considering the film’s modest $20 million production budget (far less than Unbreakable‘s $75 million over 18 years ago). For the holiday weekend, Universal is projecting a $41.3 million three-day take and $48 million through Monday.

Holding strong in second place to start the weekend, The Upside eased just 40 percent from opening day last Friday to $4.17 million yesterday. That gives the hit dramedy a $32.5 million eight-day domestic tally as it paces toward a strong holiday weekend rerun. STX is projecting $14 million / $17 million for the three- and four-day split, although our internal projections indicate potential to go a little higher.

Rounding off the top three, Aquaman added $2.51 million on its 29th day of release as it marches toward the $300 million domestic benchmark. With $296.5 million in the bank so far, the DC blockbuster is pacing for a $10.9 million three-day and $13.6 million over the four-day.

Early three-day weekend estimates are below.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JAN. 18 – SUN, JAN. 20

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Glass $41,400,000 3,841 $10,778 $41,400,000 1 Universal
2 The Upside $15,100,000 -26% 3,320 240 $4,548 $43,413,439 2 STX Entertainment
3 Aquaman $10,900,000 -37% 3,475 -388 $3,137 $304,906,848 6 Warner Bros.
4 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $8,000,000 -12% 2,712 -317 $2,950 $159,001,385 6 Sony / Columbia
5 A Dog’s Way Home $7,900,000 -30% 3,090 0 $2,557 $22,068,496 2 Sony Pictures
6 Mary Poppins Returns $5,400,000 -29% 2,810 -443 $1,922 $158,887,814 5 Disney
7 Escape Room $5,100,000 -43% 2,709 -8 $1,883 $40,525,948 3 Sony Pictures
8 Bumblebee $4,900,000 -32% 2,711 -592 $1,807 $116,183,676 5 Paramount Pictures
9 On The Basis Of Sex $3,900,000 -36% 1,957 34 $1,993 $16,811,747 4 Focus Features
10 The Mule $3,500,000 -38% 2,688 -641 $1,302 $96,924,689 6 Warner Bros.
11 Bohemian Rhapsody $2,300,000 -28% 1,177 -157 $1,954 $202,032,484 12 20th Century Fox
12 Ralph Breaks the Internet $2,000,000 -11% 1,936 382 $1,033 $193,059,032 9 Disney
13 If Beale Street Could Talk $1,900,000 -21% 1,018 0 $1,866 $10,715,560 6 Annapurna
14 Vice $1,700,000 -47% 1,175 -549 $1,447 $39,083,363 4 Annapurna
15 Replicas $475,000 -80% 2,329 0 $204 $3,700,873 2 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Dragon Ball Super: Broly $7,000,000 467 $14,989 $7,000,000 1 FUNimation Entertainment
2 Green Book $2,200,000 2% 912 170 $2,412 $2,200,000 10 Universal Pictures
3 The Favourite $820,000 -26% 517 5 $1,586 $22,809,025 9 Fox Searchlight
4 A Star is Born $620,000 -45% 415 21 $1,494 $204,680,733 16 Warner Bros.
5 Mary Queen of Scots $380,000 -55% 405 -424 $938 $16,056,509 7 Focus Features
6 Creed II $240,000 -16% 525 170 $457 $115,232,617 9 MGM / Warner Bros
7 Perfect Strangers $160,000 -62% 132 0 $1,212 $712,702 2 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Destroyer $160,000 7% 50 23 $3,200 $646,084 4 Annapurna Pictures

===

Friday Update: Universal reports this morning that M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass cracked open $3.7 million on Thursday evening to begin the long holiday weekend. The film opened at 7pm in 3,200 domestic locations.

For comparison purposes, here’s how that stacks up to recent genre films:

  • 85 percent ahead of Split ($2.0 million)
  • 14 percent behind A Quiet Place ($4.3 million)
  • 32 percent behind The Nun ($5.4 million)

Due to the holiday weekend and older target audience, we’re holding off on any weekend extrapolations at this stage. Check back Saturday morning for further analysis and early weekend estimates.

Shawn Robbins

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Delle January 18, 2019

    So “Dragon Ball Super: Broly” made another $3.4 million yesterday and you’re site is still not recording it. I get it that you’re reporting “Glass” numbers since it’s the biggest release of the new year so far, but to not acknowledge the impressive numbers “Dragon Ball Super: Broly” is putting up says just how out of touch your site is and how much of weirdos you are.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Rela January 19, 2019

      You made slight sense until you called them “weirdos”….

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Multiplex37 January 19, 2019

      This didn’t age well, did it?

      # TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
      1 Dragon Ball Super: Broly $7,000,000 — 467 — $14,989 $7,000,000 1 FUNimation Entertainment

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Anthony January 19, 2019

      I agree. Box Office Mojo and The Numbers are far better sites. ANd Dead line Hollywood is also great

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen January 19, 2019

      Weirdos? Really? First of all, this is an initial weekend estimate–on a Saturday. Doing such is common for this site and others, but the weekend still has Sunday to go; plus, studios need to confirm what they actually have, which typically doesn’t happen until Monday. Since Monday is a holiday, we probably won’t really know what Broly did until Wednesday. Keep in mind, also, that Broly has an atypical release, as has been discussed here and elsewhere: semi-wide on days one and two, and select shows the rest of the way. That makes it very difficult to estimate; the $7mil opening day is the only one that can be assured. Don’t be an ass; there are way too many on the internet as it is. If you really have the need, then go to Deadline or, worse, Variety.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Delle January 20, 2019

        I said weird man, they were not even reporting the movie’s numbers in the hourly daily tweets. The film make $7 million on Wednesday and it’s not even in their daily tweet, yet they don’t forget to mention how “Glass” makes over $3 million from it’s early Thursday screenings? Come on now man, stop defending their mistakes. What are you on Box Office Pro’s pay take or something?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jacen January 20, 2019

          Mmmm, no, I’m not on their payroll and I’m not even defending them. I’m just clarifying why they do what they do. Why did you automatically jump to “You don’t agree with me to hate them–you must be getting paid off!! HN!!” Also, you didn’t say weird; you said the following: “how out of touch your site is and how much of weirdos you are.” “You’re weirdos,” not “it’s weird,” is the essence of what you wrote. It’s right up there in your post. It doesn’t take much effort to read what you wrote, and it directly, negatively characterizes the writer(s). As you can see, I’m not the only one who pointed this out.

          Reply
  2. Avatar
    Greg January 20, 2019

    How much does weather factor into Glass’s box office? We’re in Columbus, Ohio, and pretty much NO ONE’S going anywhere today (Sunday) and major events were cancelled yesterday. If people didn’t see it Friday, they’re probably not seeing it this weekend at all…

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen January 20, 2019

      Weather definitely is a factor. It’s weakened other openings in the past (I remember Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day opening to less than it should have). The trouble is trying to guess how much more the film could have made. Is a small area affected or a big area? Is it affected for a weekend, or for a few weekends?

      Reply

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