Weekend Estimates: ‘Hotel Transylvania 3’ Pacing for Strong $41-45M; ‘Skyscraper’ Eyes $25M Domestic, $65M+ Global Start; ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ Targets $28M Second Frame

Saturday Update: Sony is officially positioned to claim their first #1 spot at the box office this summer with Hotel Transylvania 3, which bowed to a strong $16.65 million opening on Friday. That figure includes Thursday night’s $2.6 million, but does not include the studio’s reported $1.276 million earned from Amazon Prime member screenings in approximately 1,000 theaters on Saturday, June 30.

The studio projects the domestic weekend tally will reach $41 million (sans Amazon grosses), although our projections stand a little more bearish at $43-45 million for now. International updates to follow on Sunday.

Key early takeaways from Transylvania 3‘s opening day:

  • 52 percent ahead of Hotel Transylvania‘s $10.97 million first day in September 2012
  • 25 percent ahead of Hotel Transylvania 2‘s $13.325 million first day in September 2015
  • 0.5 percent behind Ice Age: Continental Drift‘s $16.73 million first day in July 2012
  • 15 percent behind Cars 3‘s $19.595 million opening day in June 2017
  • $1.276 million from June 30’s Amazon Prime member screenings not counted in Friday or weekend figures
  • Sony’s first film to top the daily box office since Peter Rabbit on Sunday, February 11
  • Will become Sony’s first film to win the weekend box office since Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’s 7th frame on Super Bowl weekend (February 2 -4)

Debuting in second place, Skyscraper earned a respectable $9.268 million on the back of Dwayne Johnson’s star power. Unfortunately, that falls a bit shy of our and the studio’s pre-release forecasts as Universal now projects a debut weekend around $25 million. As an original film without a built-in brand, there’s still room for leggy playability in the days and weeks ahead. Word of mouth will be key toward that goal, which appears to be much stronger among audiences (80 percent on Flixster) versus critics (51 percent on Rotten Tomatoes). The studio’s global estimate for this weekend stands at $66.2 million.

Skyscraper‘s prospects remain stronger overseas, where the studio estimates a $41.2 million weekend from 57 territories, including Mexico, UK & Ireland, Korea, Russia, France, Australia, Brazil, Germany and Spain. It opened in first place in 19 markets, with top grossing markets represented by Korea ($4.8 million), Mexico ($3.7 million), Russia ($2.6 million), Australia ($2.4 million), UK & Ireland ($2.4 million), and Taiwan ($2.3 million). Skyscraper opens in 11 markets next weekend, including Italy and China.

Meanwhile, Ant-Man and the Wasp slid 75 percent from opening day last week to $8.407 million yesterday, bringing its eight-day domestic cume to $112.4 million. That Friday-to-Friday slide was slightly sharper than Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s 73 percent dip on the same sophomore frame last summer. The latest Marvel sequel’s second weekend is estimated to bring in around $28 million.

Other notables:

  • Incredibles 2 added $4.6 million on Friday for a $524.2 million domestic total, looking to overtake Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in tenth place all-time by the end of Sunday
  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom added $4.433 million yesterday for a $352.2 million domestic total, overtaking American Sniper ($350.1 million) at #47 on the all-time chart and set to pass Inside OutFurious 7, and Transformers: Dark of the Moon for #44 by the end of Sunday
  • Sorry to Bother You enjoyed a strong expansion into 805 theaters with $1.494 million yesterday, now standing at $2.56 million through eight days of limited play

Early weekend estimates are below. Full studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

* denotes official studio estimate as of Saturday morning

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JUL. 13 – SUN, JUL. 15

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation $43,000,000 4,267 $10,077 $44,276,000 3 Sony / Columbia
2 Ant-Man and the Wasp $28,000,000 -63% 4,206 0 $6,657 $131,985,225 2 Disney
3 Skyscraper $25,000,000* 3,782 $6,610 $25,000,000 1 Universal Pictures
4 Incredibles 2 $15,400,000 -46% 3,705 -408 $4,157 $534,998,492 5 Disney
5 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $14,910,000* -48% 3,695 -654 $4,035 $362,692,215 4 Universal
6 The First Purge $8,880,000* -49% 3,038 7 $2,923 $49,257,970 2 Universal Pictures
7 Sicario: Day of the Soldado $3,465,000* -55% 2,006 -1049 $1,727 $42,815,345 3 Sony / Black Label
8 Uncle Drew $3,100,000 -53% 1,702 -1040 $1,821 $36,567,040 3 Lionsgate / Summit
9 Ocean’s 8 $2,900,000 -43% 1,618 -986 $1,792 $132,245,936 6 Warner Bros.

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Sorry To Bother You $4,900,000 574% 805 789 $6,087 $5,964,952 2 Annapurna Pictures
2 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? $1,950,000 -24% 868 -25 $2,247 $15,888,287 6 Focus Features
3 Tag (2018) $1,200,000 -60% 982 -1175 $1,222 $51,241,957 5 Warner Bros.
4 Deadpool 2 $725,000* -57% 588 -679 $1,233 $316,180,620 9 Fox
5 Avengers: Infinity War $578,000 -38% 375 -131 $1,541 $675,981,437 12 Disney
6 Sanju $500,000* -61% 223 -136 $2,242 $7,121,205 3 FIP
7 Solo: A Star Wars Story $410,000 -62% 315 -463 $1,302 $211,922,976 8 Disney
8 Book Club $280,000 -35% 311 -63 $900 $67,784,438 9 Paramount Pictures
9 Superfly $185,000 -70% 172 -363 $1,076 $20,319,390 5 Sony Pictures
10 A Quiet Place $85,000 -38% 132 -30 $644 $187,617,256 15 Paramount
11 Show Dogs $38,292* -31% 120 -12 $319 $17,650,952 9 Global Road Entertainment

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Soorma $135,000 50 $2,700 $135,000 1 Sony Pictures Releasing International
2 Hotel Artemis $20,138* 46% 60 42 $336 $6,684,707 6 Global Road
3 Black Panther $17,000 -45% 28 -24 $607 $699,903,993 22 Disney
4 Chappaquiddick $970 -40% 3 -2 $323 $17,391,461 15 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

===

Friday Report: Sony announced this morning that Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation launched with $2.6 million on Thursday evening with shows beginning at 5pm in 3,276 locations. That lines up with pre-release expectations as a very healthy start for the animated sequel, coming in just behind Cars 3‘s $2.8 million in June 2017 and ahead of How to Train Your Dragon 2‘s $2.0 million in June 2014.

Meanwhile, Skyscraper pulled a solid $1.95 million debut from 7pm shows at 2,950 locations last night. Dwayne Johnson’s latest headliner came in slightly ahead of Central Intelligence ($1.84 million) and just behind Hercules ($2.1 million).

Follow Boxoffice for further updates throughout the weekend.

Shawn Robbins

2 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Ben July 14, 2018

    A few years ago Sony was going down the shitter but now with the successes of Baby driver, Jumanji and Spider-Man Homecoming and those three all being good to great movies and this year with Peter Rabbit and HT3 which I haven’t and don’t plan on watching I think they’re doing well for themselves now it’s just Paramounts turn to redeem themselves. Also next year Sony has a really promising slate

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    J July 14, 2018

    Bearish would mean you think it will make less than 41. Bullish would mean you think it would open 43-45.

    Reply

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