Early Weekend Estimates: ‘Maze Runner’ Finale Eyes $22M; ‘Hostiles’ Healthy at $11M; ‘Jumanji’ & ‘Greatest Showman’ Continue Remarkable Runs

Saturday Update: Fox’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure landed in first place as expected on opening day with $8.4 million, including Thursday night’s $1.5 million debut. That marks a 24 percent decline from its predecessor’s $11 million opening day in September 2015, but still marks a decent showing for the film so as long as overseas returns (which have yet to be reported) follow a similar-or-better trend given that the previous film earned over $312 million globally on a fairly modest $61 million production budget. Fox is projecting a $22 million weekend for Death Cure‘s domestic launch.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle added another $3.77 million, down just 23 percent from last Friday and bringing its domestic haul up to a huge $325.4 million as the blockbuster continues to roll far past expectations. Sony is expecting around $15.5 million this weekend.

Hostiles performed very well in its first day of nationwide release, taking in $3.4 million — 136 percent stronger than the opening day of The Promise last year. The Scott Cooper western starring Christian Bale is performing well ahead of our pre-release forecast despite opening in a market filled to the brim with Oscar nominated fare. Distributor Entertainment Studios projects an $11.1 million weekend.

In other noteworthy news, The Greatest Showman simply can’t be stopped. The Hugh Jackman-led musical posted a slim 15 percent decline from last Friday to $2.54 million on Friday, bringing its domestic cume up to an amazing $119.5 million and counting — more than 13.5 times its opening weekend last month. The word-of-mouth sensation is on track for $9.325 million this weekend, according to the studio.

On the Oscar front for Best Picture nominees: The Post took in $2.4 million yesterday, The Shape of Water earned a strong $1.59 million in its largest expansion to date, Three Billboards added $970,000 in another expansion, Phantom Thread grossed $802,000, Darkest Hour took in $757,000, and Get Out pulled $53,000 from 368 locations. Earnings for Call Me By Your NameDunkirk, and Lady Bird have not yet been reported for this weekend.

Early Weekend Estimates (Studios + Boxoffice.com)

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $22,000,000 3,787 $5,809 $22,000,000 1 Fox
2 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $15,500,000 -21% 3,553 -151 $4,363 $337,157,203 6 Sony / Columbia
3 Hostiles $10,500,000 3115% 2,816 2767 $3,729 $12,347,797 6 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures
4 The Greatest Showman $9,325,000 -12% 2,663 -160 $3,502 $126,300,232 6 Fox
5 12 Strong $8,900,000 -44% 3,018 16 $2,949 $30,024,610 2 Warner Bros.
6 Den of Thieves $8,800,000 -42% 2,432 0 $3,618 $28,942,445 2 STX Entertainment
7 The Post $8,600,000 -27% 2,640 -211 $3,258 $58,285,923 6 20th Century Fox
8 Paddington 2 $6,200,000 -23% 2,792 -910 $2,221 $32,650,416 3 Warner Bros.
9 The Shape of Water $5,500,000 152% 1,854 1001 $2,967 $37,478,745 9 Fox Searchlight
10 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $4,100,000 -37% 1,745 -711 $2,350 $610,641,821 7 Disney
11 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $3,600,000 88% 1,457 503 $2,471 $37,010,951 16 Fox Searchlight
12 The Commuter $3,500,000 -47% 1,811 -1081 $1,933 $31,477,189 3 Lionsgate
13 Forever My Girl $3,300,000 -22% 1,424 310 $2,317 $8,859,159 2 Roadside Attractions/LD Entertainment
14 Phantom Thread $3,100,000 -5% 1,021 125 $3,036 $10,831,809 5 Focus Features
15 Insidious: The Last Key $3,000,000 -49% 1,901 -645 $1,578 $63,260,300 4 Universal
16 Darkest Hour $2,900,000 6% 1,333 -8 $2,176 $45,212,407 10 Focus Features
17 Pitch Perfect 3 $1,300,000 -57% 1,039 -733 $1,251 $102,651,130 6 Universal
18 Proud Mary $1,300,000 -64% 1,003 -1122 $1,296 $19,223,868 3 Sony / Screen Gems

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Coco $1,500,000 -21% 621 -257 $2,415 $202,767,237 10 Disney
2 Ferdinand $950,000 -44% 675 -537 $1,407 $80,480,854 7 Fox
3 Wonder (2017) $515,000 -4% 349 -147 $1,476 $130,647,440 11 Lionsgate
4 All the Money in the World $230,000 -39% 227 -147 $1,013 $24,535,907 5 Sony / TriStar
5 Thor: Ragnarok $181,000 -23% 150 -34 $1,207 $313,694,009 13 Disney
6 Get Out $175,000 468 $374 $175,000 49 Universal
7 Daddy’s Home 2 $140,000 -34% 145 -38 $966 $103,738,484 12 Paramount
8 Downsizing $73,000 4% 113 -21 $646 $24,420,408 6 Paramount

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Condorito: La Pelicula $19,000 -75% 36 -98 $528 $438,622 3 Lionsgate / Pantelion

===

Friday Update: Fox reports this morning that Maze Runner: The Death Cure grossed $1.5 million from its first shows on Thursday evening, lining up with pre-release expectations. By comparison, that comes in just 12 percent behind its predecessor The Scorch Trials‘ $1.7 million Thursday bow in September 2015. That film went on to earn $11.0 million for its overall opening day and $30.3 million for opening weekend. For another comparison point, the third film in the Divergent series — Allegiant — scored $2.35 million on Thursday night two years ago, part of an $11.94 million opening day and $29.03 million opening weekend.

Should Death Cure perform somewhere between the average of those two films, it remains on course for an opening weekend in the low-to-mid $20 million range. That should be enough to score a first place debut, although we continue to expect another strong hold from Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle in second place.

Meanwhile, Hostiles secured a solid $370,000 from 1,893 locations last night (that excludes the entire day’s gross from 119 locations that were already running the film in limited release). By comparison, Hostiles came in 85 percent stronger than The Promise‘s $200,000 Thursday start last spring (part of a $4.1 million weekend), while last week’s 12 Strong earned $900,000 and went on to $15.8 million for the weekend.

Follow Boxoffice on Twitter for continued updates throughout the weekend, including official Friday estimates and early weekend estimates on Saturday morning.

Boxoffice Staff

1 Comment

  1. Avatar
    Dakota January 26, 2018

    The Death Cure will likely earn 22,000,000 on opening weekend.

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *