Weekend Estimates: ‘Ralph’ ($57M 3-Day / $86M 5-Day) Wrecking 2nd Best Thanksgiving Start; ‘Creed II’ Punching Up Strong $35M/$56M; ‘Grinch’ & ‘Beasts’ Neck-and-Neck

Saturday Update: November’s excellent box office march continues this weekend as Disney’s Ralph Breaks the Internet is over-performing in its Thanksgiving debut, adding $21.735 million on Black Friday for a three-day haul of $50.535 million. The hit sequel is currently pacing for a Friday-to-Sunday weekend around $57 million, which puts it in contention to best Toy Story 2‘s $57.4 million as the second highest three-day Thanksgiving debut in history (behind only Frozen‘s $67.4 million). For Ralph‘s overall five-day start, that would land around $85.8 million — potentially topping Moana ($82.1 million) as the second best ever behind Frozen ($93.6 million).

Creed II is also off to an excellent start slightly above forecasts with another $14.13 million on Friday, giving it $34.64 million after three days. That comes in 43.5 percent ahead of its predecessor’s first three days in November 2015, setting the stage for a weekend frame around $35 million — giving it an overall $55.5 million five-day estimated bow.

The Grinch nabbed another $11.6 million yesterday for an updated domestic cume of $161.85 million. Its three-day weekend should land close to $29.5 million, which — as expected — puts it in close positioning to Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. That sequel added $11.82 million on Friday, giving it $99.3 million domestically as it paces for a weekend around $29 million.

Meanwhile, Robin Hood grabbed $3.46 million on Friday, giving it $8.555 million in its first three days. The Friday-Sunday segment should end up around $9 million, giving the pic a $14.1 million estimated five-day opening.

On the Oscar race front, Green Book earned $2.05 million on Friday for a new total of $4.4 million in the bank. Its three-day weekend could net around $5.4 million.

Last but not least, The Favourite opened on Friday with a strong $190,572 from four locations — marking an excellent $47,643 per-theater average. Fox is projecting around $415,000 for the weekend.

Early three-day estimates are below. Updated studio estimates will follow on Sunday, followed by final results on Monday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, NOV. 23 – SUN, NOV. 25

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Ralph Breaks the Internet $57,000,000 4,017 $14,190 $85,800,000 1 Disney
2 Creed II $35,000,000 3,441 $10,171 $55,513,000 1 MGM / Warner Bros
3 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $29,500,000 -24% 3,960 -181 $7,449 $179,747,250 3 Universal
4 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $29,000,000 -53% 4,163 0 $6,966 $116,467,000 2 Warner Bros.
5 Bohemian Rhapsody $13,300,000 -17% 2,927 -883 $4,544 $151,464,253 4 20th Century Fox
6 Instant Family $12,000,000 -17% 3,286 0 $3,652 $35,251,508 2 Paramount Pictures
7 Robin Hood $9,000,000 2,827 $3,184 $14,095,000 1 Lionsgate / Summit
8 Widows $7,900,000 -36% 2,803 0 $2,818 $25,530,819 2 20th Century Fox
9 Green Book $5,400,000 1585% 1,063 1038 $5,080 $7,758,401 2 Universal Pictures
10 A Star is Born $3,000,000 -30% 1,202 -808 $2,496 $191,000,000 8 Warner Bros.
11 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $2,800,000 -41% 1,757 -878 $1,594 $49,207,698 4 Walt Disney Pictures
12 Overlord $1,100,000 -71% 1,223 -1636 $899 $20,175,026 3 Paramount Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Boy Erased $1,100,000 -17% 672 263 $1,637 $4,482,637 4 Focus Features
2 Nobody’s Fool $860,000 -61% 608 -693 $1,414 $30,467,263 4 Paramount
3 Venom $700,000 -65% 585 -722 $1,197 $211,627,620 8 Sony / Columbia
4 The Front Runner $600,000 696% 807 785 $743 $1,039,563 3 Sony / Columbia
5 Can You Ever Forgive Me? $568,000 -36% 426 -129 $1,333 $6,001,746 6 Fox Searchlight
6 The Girl in the Spider’s Web $338,000 -86% 983 -1946 $344 $14,374,400 3 Sony / Columbia
7 The Hate U Give $302,000 -61% 260 -333 $1,162 $28,894,674 8 20th Century Fox
8 A Private War $110,000 -84% 226 -639 $487 $1,377,868 4 Aviron Pictures
9 Incredibles 2 $59,000 -27% 106 -24 $557 $608,509,467 24 Disney
10 Hunter Killer $40,000 -53% 101 -93 $396 $15,743,544 5 Lionsgate / Summit

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Favourite $415,000 4 $103,750 $415,000 1 Fox Searchlight
2 At Eternity’s Gate $210,000 126% 31 27 $6,774 $396,822 2 CBS Films
3 The Old Man & The Gun $94,000 -43% 91 -80 $1,033 $10,782,328 9 Fox Searchlight
4 Disney’s Christopher Robin $16,000 -52% 55 -37 $291 $99,207,420 17 Disney

===

Friday Update: Disney’s Ralph Breaks the Internet is off to a strong start with $18.5 million on opening day Wednesday and $10.3 million on Thursday, giving it an excellent $28.8 million two-day domestic start ahead of the weekend. Creed II is likewise doing very well with $11.6 million and $8.9 million in its first two days for a cume of $20.5 million thus far.

Meanwhile, Robin Hood posted $3.15 million and $1.945 million in each of its first two days for a total thus far of $5.1 million. Green Book expanded semi-wide to $911K on Wednesday and $1.05 million on Thursday.

Weekend and additional daily estimates to follow on Saturday.

===

Wednesday Report: Disney reports this morning that Ralph Breaks the Internet earned an excellent $3.8 million start from 6pm onward last night as it begins a five-day weekend release. That compares very favorably with Disney’s Coco and Moana, which also bowed on Thanksgiving Wednesday in 2017 and 2016 with $2.3 million and $2.6 million, respectively. While initial results are expected to be higher for Ralph given its nature as a sequel, this bodes well for a strong opening performance in the days ahead.

Although MGM and Annapurna have yet to report officially, multiple sources claim Creed II earned $3.7 million from last night’s first shows. If accurate, that marks a huge jump from Creed‘s $1.4 million start on the same pre-Thanksgiving Wednesday three years ago — although the comparison is loose given how popular early shows have become even in that relatively short time frame.

Meanwhile, Robin Hood took in $800K from 2,100 locations last night — plus an addition $400K from promotional screenings on Monday night. The former former figure is well ahead of Victor Frankenstein‘s $180K Tuesday night start three years ago, although additional comps are scarce with the holiday debut in mind.

Follow Boxoffice for continued updates throughout the extended holiday weekend.

Shawn Robbins

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